If we vote for Brexit what happens

mayonnaise

setmefree2 wrote: »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-28/investor-who-backed-brexit-sees-euro-breaking-up-within-5-years

Blimey. A brexiteer predicting the end of the Euro. Whatever next?

setmefree2

gfplux wrote: »

Is there any other reason that posters are focusing their thoughts over the Channel.

My thoughts are over the Channel because a Le Pen win would be a major negative for shares....and probably a massive recession to boot...remember Le Pen wants to leave not just the EU but the Euro.

But also should anti-EU forces make more headway in national politics, most notably with a Marine Le Pen victory in France, it could transform the context for Brexit talks. EU unity on Brexit could reach a tipping point, where the EU starts to fragment, helping Britain to negotiate a more bespoke deal. BUT I can't see a Le Pen win not causing a massive SHOCK and a recession.

Thrugelmir

mayonnaise wrote: »

Blimey. A brexiteer predicting the end of the Euro. Whatever next?

The founder of the Euro project himself.

setmefree2

Bless..........

OECD Predicts Steep Fall in U.K. Growth in 2017 on Brexit Uncertainties

setmefree2

Fillion.

Fillon seeks to reform Europe from within. But he's no reflexive Europhile, as past French presidents have been. The EU, he says, is "at best, ineffective, useless and irrelevant and at worst as an obstacle to our development and freedom."

Intriguingly, his platform includes radically reducing the power of the European Commission. In the euro zone, he calls for monetary policy to be harnessed to a new secretariat charged with bringing about fiscal policy convergence and, eventually, pooling national debts (a proposal that is not likely to go down well across the border in Germany).

Fillon shares Trump's aversion to trade deals. Like a majority of his countrymen, he's against the proposed trade deal between the U.S. and Europe, the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-11-28/meet-france-s-conservative-front-runner-francois-fillon

setmefree2

CLAPTON wrote: »

the figures appear to go something like

18b gross
5b instant refund
so net contribution is 13 bn

now the EU decides certain spending on the UK irrespective of whether it is the best interest of the UK but depending upon EU priorities
this amounts to 4b
some of this spend will be useful whilst some will be harmful and some probably neither good nor bad

for the sake of debate say 50% is of net value so 2 b

so net payment is maybe about 11 b

More importantly it is scheduled to pay another net £60bn in the EU’s agreed long term budget to 2020/21, including £26.4bn in the two years after 2019, its expected exit date.

Masomnia

setmefree2 wrote: »

Fillion.







https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-11-28/meet-france-s-conservative-front-runner-francois-fillon

Quite interesting. I like the sound of this Fillon chap.

setmefree2

Masomnia wrote: »

Quite interesting. I like the sound of this Fillon chap.

TOO right wing for me tbh.....question is can socialists vote for him whilst holding their noses?

Masomnia

setmefree2 wrote: »

TOO right wing for me tbh.....question is can socialists vote for him whilst holding their noses?

I've seen other posts suggesting that they will, but anything could happen - it is 2016 after all.

To be honest though, Le Pen's economic policies are really quite left wing. It's not the case that his are right wing, but her's more so, making him the lesser of two evils.

Could be an interesting contest.

gfplux

setmefree2 wrote: »

My thoughts are over the Channel because a Le Pen win would be a major negative for shares....and probably a massive recession to boot...remember Le Pen wants to leave not just the EU but the Euro.

But also should anti-EU forces make more headway in national politics, most notably with a Marine Le Pen victory in France, it could transform the context for Brexit talks. EU unity on Brexit could reach a tipping point, where the EU starts to fragment, helping Britain to negotiate a more bespoke deal. BUT I can't see a Le Pen win not causing a massive SHOCK and a recession.

Not only a shock to shares but a boost to the value of Sterling against the Euro which would be BAD NEWS given that many Brexiteers viewed the lower value of the pound as a POSITIVE