If we vote for Brexit what happens

kabayiri

Are we moving into a period where geopolitics drives change much more than pure economics and the markets?

There was a suggestion on This Week that the strong military presence of UK in Europe would help drive a good bargain in Brexit. Certainly, Eastern Europe is feeling a lot less secure in recent weeks.

Could we also see Western countries decrease their involvement in the Middle East? I suspect Trump sees Syria as a sacrificial lamb to Russia.

ruggedtoast

kabayiri wrote: »

Are we moving into a period where geopolitics drives change much more than pure economics and the markets?

There was a suggestion on This Week that the strong military presence of UK in Europe would help drive a good bargain in Brexit. Certainly, Eastern Europe is feeling a lot less secure in recent weeks.

Could we also see Western countries decrease their involvement in the Middle East? I suspect Trump sees Syria as a sacrificial lamb to Russia.

The UK doesn't even have a strong military presence in the UK so I doubt that's going to be much of a bargaining chip in the long run.

The best solution to Brexiteers, is just not to let them have Brexit. They'll huff and blow like its the end of the world and then they'll get over it.

Thrugelmir

wotsthat wrote: »

Looks like the days of the Tories tearing themselves apart over Europe might not be quite be over.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-38034411

Are the Labour party united on one topic? One suspects not.

Differing opinions generate healthy debate. I'd be really concerned if they wasn't. As who wants to live under the rule of dictatorship.

kabayiri

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Are the Labour party united on one topic? One suspects not.
...

A party where most of the MPs despise their leader is hardly united.

They could keep up the pretence until an election, but after that the cracks would appear.

Their best hope is a coallition with both the SNP and Lib Dems. That way there are always two other parties to blame for the inevitable mismanagement.

Thrugelmir

kabayiri wrote: »

A party where most of the MPs despise their leader is hardly united.

They have the option of resigning their seats and forcing a by election. If they are that principled. Once suspects that they aren't. Far too many sheep.

CLAPTON

Thrugelmir wrote: »

They have the option of resigning their seats and forcing a by election. If they are that principled. Once suspects that they aren't. Far too many sheep.

They were voted for by their constituents and not appointed by Corbyn.
It would be a sad day when MPs resigned because their leader doesn't like them

wotsthat

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Are the Labour party united on one topic? One suspects not.

Differing opinions generate healthy debate. I'd be really concerned if they wasn't. As who wants to live under the rule of dictatorship.

You've got to be true blue to call the Tories regular civil wars over Europe healthy debate.

In the context of Brexit who cares about Labour? They're not in government and probably won't be for a while.

wotsthat

CLAPTON wrote: »

The UK has been part of a protectionist EU for the last 40 years and hasn't been able to act independently.
It's general accepted that the UK has pressed for more free trade and reduced regulation.

I'm not convinced by that. You only need to look at the flack the government took for blocking EU plans for higher tariffs on Chinese steel to get a view on what people think. Tariffs on imports are a good thing because they 'protect' British industry - that way of thinking isn't going to change because of Brexit.

CLAPTON wrote: »

You seem to have a one dimensional view of the world that only ever sees white, christian europeans and doesn't believe that change is possible.

Plenty is going to change but the EU will remain white and christian, so will the UK and, for the black African farmer, Brexit won't make an iota of difference.

CLAPTON

wotsthat wrote: »

I'm not convinced by that. You only need to look at the flack the government took for blocking EU plans for higher tariffs on Chinese steel to get a view on what people think. Tariffs on imports are a good thing because they 'protect' British industry - that way of thinking isn't going to change because of Brexit.

as I see it, it was the UK resisting high tariffs on chinese steel while the EU wanted high tariffs : exactly what I am arguing that after brexit the UK will probably reduce tariff compared to the EU.
I'm confused about what you believe is the best policy on tariffs.

Plenty is going to change but the EU will remain white and christian, so will the UK and, for the black African farmer, Brexit won't make an iota of difference.

after brexit I believe that the UK will reduce the tariffs on African produce, to the mutual benefit of both parties:
I've no idea why you believe otherwise.

padington

CLAPTON wrote: »

as I see it, it was the UK resisting high tariffs on chinese steel while the EU wanted high tariffs : exactly what I am arguing that after brexit the UK will probably reduce tariff compared to the EU.
I'm confused about what you believe is the best policy on tariffs.

Free trade is good for everyone up to a point. That point being the countries you trade with have to be relatively free countries, not totalitarian states. Otherwise it's not free trade, it's dirty desperate trade. If people didn't trade with the nazi's like they did we might not have ended up with 6 million dead people.

That's why a free trading block of democracies is a great thing. Trading on equal terms with dictators, autocrats or fascists might make us better off in the short term but believe me, it won't make the world a better place, it won't make the world 'better off'.