If we vote for Brexit what happens

Herzlos

mrginge wrote: »

Oh my god.

Every single item imported into this country will be at least £8 more expensive!!!!

So that means if I buy four items currently costing 50p each, after Brexit they will be AT LEAST THIRTY FOUR POUNDS!!!!!!

This is a disaster.

Well, igoring the am-dram, exactly. Assuming you're importing them individually. But yes, that's exactly why it's going to be a disaster - lots of things we don't generally think of will suddenly become a lot more expensive.

Maybe I'm odd though, in that I have, in the past, bought items from retailers in Europe or ROW.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

EU ministers remain at odds over what to do about migrants.

EU states cannot agree how to handle them. Despite agreeing last year to relocate 160,000 people from Italy and Greece, eastern European countries, including Slovakia, Poland and Hungary, have refused to take any in.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-migrants-eu-idUKKBN13D1A9?il=0
Still thousands arrive in Italy.
Almost 27,500 in October alone; 144,000 up to October this year.
http://europe.newsweek.com/migrants-italy-arrivals-record-number-obama-greece-521856?rm=eu
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/refugee-migrant-crisis-italy-smugglers-greece-libya-eu-frontex-a7358146.html

Also today, VW announce 30,000 jobs to go within 5 years.
23,000 of those will be in Germany and they say:

"I am very sorry for those affected, but the situation of the brand at the moment gives us little room for manoeuvre."

http://news.sky.com/story/vw-cuts-30000-jobs-in-emission-scandal-cost-saving-plan-10661335

Very sad - and to put the number of jobs into perspective that is more than Nissan UK (8,000); Honda UK (3,400) AND BMW Mini UK (6,000) combined!

Crashy_Time

kabayiri wrote: »

Interesting snippet last night on the This Week program.

They were discussing Merkel's recent commentary on reform to the FoM process; specifically the level of benefits the EU migrant should receive from the host country.

The belief is that this is aimed at providing French mainstream politicians with ammunition to fend off Marine Le Penn !!

It's not aimed at the UK at all.

So, Cameron goes with specific negotiations to the EU and gets very little. Yet, now we have Merkel trying to proactively reform something which is a red line to help French politics.

Weird times indeed.

Brexit and Trump have definitely spooked the horses. Very interesting times.

Thrugelmir

kabayiri wrote: »

So, Cameron goes with specific negotiations to the EU and gets very little. Yet, now we have Merkel trying to proactively reform something which is a red line to help French politics.

The French / German axis is the mainstay of the EU and the very reason it exists. All historical but ingrained in culture.

gfplux

Tromking wrote: »

Perhaps us racist and xenophobic Brits have turned our ire toward Western Europeans now. Although there were thousands of them in the summer as tourists enjoying the favourable exchange rate.
This Brexit scenario is so confusing.

I don't think that Highly skilled Western Europeans are being frightened by racist and xenophobic Brits from coming to Britain to work (OK just a little if you say so) It is more the uncertainty they and their family's would face about their right to stay.
It is confusing particularly if you have never lived and worked in a foreign country.

gfplux

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

It's not a theory, it's demonstrably true that consumer habits can change due to circumstance or gaps in the market.

Take Amazon, eBay, and Groupon. Consider these and their impact on consumer habits versus prior to their existence. How they've actually contributed to killing off high street stores.

Look at the change in grocery shopping habits, the rise of Aldi and Lidl after 2008.

Marketing doesn't drive consumer habits as much as necessity, convenience or value. These will be far greater factors in driving consumer spending habits.

Take KIA. Up until recently they weren't a popular brand of vehicle, they made their vehicles with a 7 year warranty, they raised the quality of what they were producing and now they're everywhere. That would be a combination of convenience and value.

Edit: I wanted to add another recent change to consumer habits. Uber, being a taxi without actually being a taxi. Traditional taxi drivers are up in arms about it, because it's pushing them out of their market share. This demonstrates the effect I'm talking about that will take place for many EU products within the UK market if tariffs are imposed. Make not mistake about it, Conrad is 100% correct that the business, the tax receipts, the jobs are all at risk for the EU. Both sides have a lot to lose if some loose political cannons decide to follow ideology blindly.

You'll always get the big brand luxury items, but they're usually the first to feel the squeeze when they're caught out. When you can go to Lidl or Aldi and buy "Coco & Peanut" that tastes just the same as Snickers for 33% of the price.

With all of that in mind I don't think it will be surprising to see people turn away from EU brands and products if they are too expensive with a tariff on them, choosing the cheaper alternative from some unfashionable place in the world with an unfashionable brand name that your friends don't recognise but functions in the same way at a similar quality.

Also there's opportunity for UK businesses and entrepreneurs if products are too expensive from the EU, but we can source the raw material/components elsewhere cheaper, there's an opportunity to assemble them here and sell to the domestic market and then the rest of the world. It becomes viable to produce them in the UK and we then compete with the EU.

You have illustrated how consumers change and/or except new things.
But those examples of changes are all seen with hindsite.
I and you would be very rich if we had been able to forecast these changes BEFORE they happened.
My point is that it is impossible to forecast how consumers will react to change.
I can guess and you can guess. I can think that the consumer will act with logic but often they don't. You may think that the effect from a particular cause is a straight line, I don't.
I will wait and see.

TrickyTree83

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The French / German axis is the mainstay of the EU and the very reason it exists. All historical but ingrained in culture.

Imagine the collapse of socialism if Front National and AfD got into power?

Expand that, and imagine if in Italy Renzi goes in December and 5Star gets into power like they have in Rome, and SD in Sweden, FPO in Austira (currently on course to win: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_presidential_election,_2016#Second_round_re-vote), Hungary are already there. The EU are facing a crisis but the political will that holds it together is in crisis, and they continue not to listen.

TrickyTree83

gfplux wrote: »

You have illustrated how consumers change and/or except new things.
But those examples of changes are all seen with hindsite.
I and you would be very rich if we had been able to forecast these changes BEFORE they happened.
My point is that it is impossible to forecast how consumers will react to change.
I can guess and you can guess. I can think that the consumer will act with logic but often they don't. You may think that the effect from a particular cause is a straight line, I don't.
I will wait and see.

The point I was trying to make was that when gaps in our market appear because items sourced in the EU become too expensive, business somewhere else or in the UK will fill the gap. It's the natural order of things. Yet people on this forum seem hell bent on not recognising this and continue to tell us that only the EU will produce certain products and that those products will increase in price and we'll be stuffed. Sure brands manufactured in the EU exclusively will go up if we have tariffs, whether people still buy these products at their inflated prices or opt for alternatives at a more reasonable price is a pretty foregone conclusion unless money is not a worry for you.

wotsthat

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

The point I was trying to make was that when gaps in our market appear because items sourced in the EU become too expensive, business somewhere else or in the UK will fill the gap. It's the natural order of things. Yet people on this forum seem hell bent on not recognising this and continue to tell us that only the EU will produce certain products and that those products will increase in price and we'll be stuffed. Sure brands manufactured in the EU exclusively will go up if we have tariffs, whether people still buy these products at their inflated prices or opt for alternatives at a more reasonable price is a pretty foregone conclusion unless money is not a worry for you.

Prices being more reasonable compared to imported prices doesn't mean the consumer won't be paying more for British goods.

Where people buy imported goods when a British substitute is available it's probably because the local product is more expensive. If that imported good becomes more expensive there are two choices and unfortunately they're both based on paying more.

I doubt British suppliers are above increasing prices if they see tarifffs price out their foreign competition either.

There's no real way around it tariffs are just a tax looking for a consumer to pay them.

wotsthat

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Brexit cut backs as Maltesers to be renamed Malteser and Fray Bentos to remove fillings from pie tins.

Good call.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/nov/18/lighter-way-to-enjoy-maltesers-mars-shrinks-sharing-bags-by-15