If we vote for Brexit what happens

Thrugelmir

Masomnia wrote: »

The EU army is a dangerous fantasy, not going to happen.

There's real concerns over matters to the East......

mrginge

Herzlos wrote: »

Alas, WTO terms will be catastrophic for us. That's largely been my point for the last hundred or so pages.

Oh dear that sounds terrible.
Still, at least it's nearly the weekend and strictly is on.

mwpt

Masomnia wrote: »

The EU army is a dangerous fantasy, not going to happen.

I'm completely ambivalent to the idea. I do wonder why people feel so strongly against change in this respect when they're so happy with change in another respect. We have NATO. It is one form of united military. Who cares if NATO changes to something else? I guess the problem is it is EU, and so therefore bad.

kabayiri

mwpt wrote: »

I'm completely ambivalent to the idea. I do wonder why people feel so strongly against change in this respect when they're so happy with change in another respect. We have NATO. It is one form of united military. Who cares if NATO changes to something else? I guess the problem is it is EU, and so therefore bad.

The suspicion with the EU is often that it is a thin proxy for the desires of Germany.

Take the refugee invite. Germany has led the way, and left the EU playing catch up.

Take the Euro. It is clear that small countries like Greece and Eire do not have the leverage that Germany has.

So why would we not also see a similar issue with an European army?

There is no way Hungary could commit the same resources as say France or Germany.

So how do you achieve balance in this new army?

cogito

Masomnia wrote: »

The EU army is a dangerous fantasy, not going to happen.

Presumably you are aware that Nick Clegg described the never going to happen EU army as a dangerous fantasy in May this year.

Now he's calling for the UK to join. Thank god this buffoon will never again be in a position where he can influence these things.

I can't post links at the moment but you can google it.

wotsthat

Thrugelmir wrote: »

On what basis. Care to give some detailed examples.

Are you disputing that WTO rules if applied to trade with the EU would hamper trade or is it the adjective catastrophic you object to?

If it's the former I import and export both from and to third countries as well as the EU and I've given quite a few examples in the past and don't mind covering them again.

If it's the latter I won't bother.

I pity any business who currently trades only with Europe and finds themselves having to trade on WTO terms. They're going to be surprised just how many new middle men are going to want a share of the margins; border inspection posts, customs inspectors, paperwork generators and the experts to sign them off.

If trading on WTO terms was so great no country would ever seek free trade deals.

vivatifosi

kabayiri wrote: »

The suspicion with the EU is often that it is a thin proxy for the desires of Germany.

Take the refugee invite. Germany has led the way, and left the EU playing catch up.

Take the Euro. It is clear that small countries like Greece and Eire do not have the leverage that Germany has.

So why would we not also see a similar issue with an European army?

I do tend to the view that we should stick with NATO and this will never happen, but I thought the same about a Trump victory, so what do I know?

There is no way Hungary could commit the same resources as say France or Germany.

So how do you achieve balance in this new army?

A further problem with this is that Germany, due to its history, has consistently spent less as a percentage of its GDP than some other countries. So you'll have a reluctant contributor in Germany, telling other EU nations who contribute more than their fair share what to do.

Countries already contributing over 2% include Poland and Estonia, due to the concern over Russia, and Greece, with on going tensions with Turkey. Germany telling Greece how to direct it's military when it is already spending more... what could possibly go wrong?

If one country was to take the leadership role, it would make more sense for this to be France than Germany. They do pay in their fair share.

wotsthat

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Meanwhile Germany asks - no, urges Britain to stop blocking closer EU defence ties.

We've decided the ability of the UK to block an EU army is less important than the benefits of leaving the EU so it can't be that big a deal.

Probably happen at the same time as Turkey joins the EU i.e. some time around never.

Herzlos

Thrugelmir wrote: »

On what basis. Care to give some detailed examples.

Take the customs union, if we get rid of that, then the following will happen:
moving goods across the border will result in a customs stop, which will likely include a handling fee (£8) and/or a customs fee (usually about 15%). This will kill off small orders of niche goods between UK/EU.

The unpredictable delay at customs will also make Just-In-Time ordering of products much less reliable, forcing companies to either carry more stock (costing more money), or find other supplies within the customs union.

Say I need a bag of widgets, from a Spanish supplier. I can order them now, and they can ship them to me for marginally more than a local order, and I should get them comfortably within 2-3 days. Sans custom union that order could take a fortnight and cost me substantially more. Maybe not a big deal if I'm ordering 10,000 of them, but completely crippling if I only need 4.


Like I say, the sun will still come up if we revert to WTO terms, but almost everything is going to cost more in one way or another.

Thrugelmir

Herzlos wrote: »

Take the customs union, if we get rid of that, then the following will happen:
moving goods across the border will result in a customs stop, which will likely include a handling fee (£8) and/or a customs fee (usually about 15%). This will kill off small orders of niche goods between UK/EU.

I was hoping for something more material in response. What you describe is actually to the detriment of UK retailers and the UK Treasury. Importing CD's from German operated companies for example. Is neither here nor there. Not exactly a growth industry either.

The customs fee is import duty by the way. The rate depending on the product imported.