If we vote for Brexit what happens

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Meanwhile Germany asks - no, urges Britain to stop blocking closer EU defence ties.
The planned EU army that was so fiercely denied before the referendum, in other words.

Britain, whose citizens voted in June to quit the EU, has expressed concern together with Poland and the Baltic states that moves to bolster European defence cooperation could weaken the NATO alliance.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eu-defence-germany-idUKKBN13C1RS?il=0

Despite the claims that "leaders were not focused on building a European army" from the above, it is said by Guy Verhofstadt that "all of these disparate relations must be united under a single European command, with common funding and a shared defense-procurement system."
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-european-defense-community-by-guy-verhofstadt-2016-11
And Juncker saying

this is why we need a new approach to the European community of defense, including a European army.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3923068/EU-chief-mounts-fresh-call-European-army-claiming-Americans-won-t-protect-forever.html

Not an EU army though.
No siree.

gfplux

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

You're missing the point.

Business has a fundamental need to remain competitive and drive sales.

If the price increases because of the duty, obviously people have to pay more, some won't. Your product becomes less competitive against other products. You lose a proportion of your share in the target market, this will affect your bottom line and consequently will affect tax receipts and jobs.

The only affect on the UK in this situation will be that a particular product made in a particular place will cost more than it did previously, when that happens usually some consumers change their habits and that's the extent of it.

Expanding this to all products, there will be little - if anything - that is manufactured in the EU that cannot be sourced elsewhere. Currently the 'elsewhere' is subject to EU tariffs, we'll just be swapping one set of tariffs for another set of tariffs. Swapping a market of 500m for a market of 6.5bn. But it will mean that consumer habits will need to change. But because of the impact on business as outlined above the businesses within the EU have a vested interest to minimise or mitigate that impact to maintain competitiveness, market share and sales. Plus if there is something manufactured within the EU that becomes too expensive to import from the EU, someone in the wider world or the UK will likely take up the opportunity to provide to the UK market. That's the way business and the world works.

Personally I'd prefer no tariffs anywhere, which is why I like EFTA.

Great in theory Tricky but many a marketing man/women has broken their heart on the torture wheel that is "trying to change consumer habits"
I and you can only wait and see what will happen. Trying to second guess markets and consumers is great fun tho if you don't have skin in the game.

Thrugelmir

Herzlos wrote: »

Alas, WTO terms will be catastrophic for us. That's largely been my point for the last hundred or so pages.

On what basis. Care to give some detailed examples.

Masomnia

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Meanwhile Germany asks - no, urges Britain to stop blocking closer EU defence ties.
The planned EU army that was so fiercely denied before the referendum, in other words.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eu-defence-germany-idUKKBN13C1RS?il=0

Despite the claims that "leaders were not focused on building a European army" from the above, it is said by Guy Verhofstadt that "all of these disparate relations must be united under a single European command, with common funding and a shared defense-procurement system."
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-european-defense-community-by-guy-verhofstadt-2016-11
And Juncker sayinghttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3923068/EU-chief-mounts-fresh-call-European-army-claiming-Americans-won-t-protect-forever.html

Not an EU army though.
No siree.

The EU army is a dangerous fantasy, not going to happen.

TrickyTree83

gfplux wrote: »

Great in theory Tricky but many a marketing man/women has broken their heart on the torture wheel that is "trying to change consumer habits"
I and you can only wait and see what will happen. Trying to second guess markets and consumers is great fun tho if you don't have skin in the game.

It's not a theory, it's demonstrably true that consumer habits can change due to circumstance or gaps in the market.

Take Amazon, eBay, and Groupon. Consider these and their impact on consumer habits versus prior to their existence. How they've actually contributed to killing off high street stores.

Look at the change in grocery shopping habits, the rise of Aldi and Lidl after 2008.

Marketing doesn't drive consumer habits as much as necessity, convenience or value. These will be far greater factors in driving consumer spending habits.

Take KIA. Up until recently they weren't a popular brand of vehicle, they made their vehicles with a 7 year warranty, they raised the quality of what they were producing and now they're everywhere. That would be a combination of convenience and value.

Edit: I wanted to add another recent change to consumer habits. Uber, being a taxi without actually being a taxi. Traditional taxi drivers are up in arms about it, because it's pushing them out of their market share. This demonstrates the effect I'm talking about that will take place for many EU products within the UK market if tariffs are imposed. Make not mistake about it, Conrad is 100% correct that the business, the tax receipts, the jobs are all at risk for the EU. Both sides have a lot to lose if some loose political cannons decide to follow ideology blindly.

You'll always get the big brand luxury items, but they're usually the first to feel the squeeze when they're caught out. When you can go to Lidl or Aldi and buy "Coco & Peanut" that tastes just the same as Snickers for 33% of the price.

With all of that in mind I don't think it will be surprising to see people turn away from EU brands and products if they are too expensive with a tariff on them, choosing the cheaper alternative from some unfashionable place in the world with an unfashionable brand name that your friends don't recognise but functions in the same way at a similar quality.

Also there's opportunity for UK businesses and entrepreneurs if products are too expensive from the EU, but we can source the raw material/components elsewhere cheaper, there's an opportunity to assemble them here and sell to the domestic market and then the rest of the world. It becomes viable to produce them in the UK and we then compete with the EU.

antrobus

Herzlos wrote: »

Do we need to start this *again*?

Single market. Customs union. Tariff free trade. We lose all of that.

Greece also has all those things. And a currency union on top. Greece still looks pretty well stuffed.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Masomnia wrote: »

The EU army is a dangerous fantasy, not going to happen.

It is if they get their way.
Read the links I posted to see how determined some with power within the EU are.

Masomnia

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

It is if they get their way.
Read the links I posted to see how determined some with power within the EU are.

I think you'll find Nick Clegg said it wouldn't happen

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Masomnia wrote: »

I think you'll find Nick Clegg said it wouldn't happen

Ah well there you go then, it will never happen.

antrobus

Masomnia wrote: »

I think you'll find Nick Clegg said it wouldn't happen

The only 'dangerous fantasy' involved was letting Nick Clegg anywhere near government. What does he think 'ever closer union' means?:)