If we vote for Brexit what happens

gfplux

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Provides the UK with income. We should focus on what we are good at. (Isn't that a benefit of FOM which remainers are so keen on? ).

I could not agree more. Overseas students pay the University well over £20000 which is great news.
Those same students probably have lots of disposable income which is good for the local economy. They also rarely stay in low cost "crappy" student rentals or halls of residence. They are prepared to pay for good quality accommodation so good news for local landlords as well.

gfplux

Tromking wrote: »

I think I heard on the radio this morning that the vast majority of the new jobs created were filled by EU citizens anxious to move to the UK before Brexit is enacted.
Clearly Remainiac tales of wanton racism and xenophobia have'nt put people off from moving here while the window is still open.
Is there any Remainiac narrative that hasn't been trashed now?

That's very interesting Tromking. Do you have any links to the radio programme. Perhaps others have seen this reported elsewhere. This is a subject that I am interested in and would be pleased if anyone can supply links to the survey, story.
Thanks.

SORRY
GOT THE STORY NOW.
Yes INCREASE of Eastern Europeans and a DECREASE in Western Europeans.

Quite understandable a rush of low skilled people getting in before the door shuts.

TrickyTree83

ruggedtoast wrote: »

The import duty for premium cars to India is 125%.

Audi still sell BMWs to India. They don't want to be subject to 125% import duty, Indian consumers don't want to pay 125% import duty, dealers don't want to charge their customers 125% import duty. But thats what happens and they all buy and sell.

Listen up Brexiteers, I am going to try and explain why this happens:

India are OUTSIDE the EU.

Germany and the other countries are INSIDE the EU.

So when Germany sells cars to other EU countries they don't pay duty in cars that weren't manufactured there.

Brexiteers have decides that they want the UK to be OUTSIDE the EU, therefore if you want to buy things that are manufactured INSIDE the EU, we will have to pay whatever import or export duty is fudged out from the hot mess that Theresa May and that blonde hair dyed buffoon can get.

This could be anything between nothing and a squillion per cent, and could change every year.

I wonder if this had been spelled out before the election if the result woulnd't have been different.

Brexiteers are like people who leave a golf club, cancel their direct debits but still expect to use all the facilities because they once bought a round in the bar.

You're missing the point.

Business has a fundamental need to remain competitive and drive sales.

If the price increases because of the duty, obviously people have to pay more, some won't. Your product becomes less competitive against other products. You lose a proportion of your share in the target market, this will affect your bottom line and consequently will affect tax receipts and jobs.

The only affect on the UK in this situation will be that a particular product made in a particular place will cost more than it did previously, when that happens usually some consumers change their habits and that's the extent of it.

Expanding this to all products, there will be little - if anything - that is manufactured in the EU that cannot be sourced elsewhere. Currently the 'elsewhere' is subject to EU tariffs, we'll just be swapping one set of tariffs for another set of tariffs. Swapping a market of 500m for a market of 6.5bn. But it will mean that consumer habits will need to change. But because of the impact on business as outlined above the businesses within the EU have a vested interest to minimise or mitigate that impact to maintain competitiveness, market share and sales. Plus if there is something manufactured within the EU that becomes too expensive to import from the EU, someone in the wider world or the UK will likely take up the opportunity to provide to the UK market. That's the way business and the world works.

Personally I'd prefer no tariffs anywhere, which is why I like EFTA.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

wotsthat wrote: »

I thought the two initial consequences of voting Brexit would be a fall in sterling and a reduction in investment due to increased uncertainty so it was nice to have my bias confirmed but delight would be over-egging it.

I understand the limitations of the research and so didn't even bother to find the source data. I think ONS data will be available in the first couple of weeks of December although it will still be survey based and involve an estimate to extrapolate to the economy as a whole.

I'm not that focused on the estimated headline figure because it's going to be wrong. The takeaway is that a third of the business leaders said they'd reduced or abandoned investment and a goodly number cited Brexit as the reason.

I'm not that focused on the estimated headline figure

Yet you felt the need to post it?
Why, if not to further the "scare" tactics of those wishing to remain?

Here is a link to Hitachi's own report:
https://www.hitachicapital.co.uk/news-media/businesses-abandon-655bn-of-investments/
See if you can find a link to the quoted survey?
After all, it was jointly comissioned by them.
Or even WHEN the survey was taken?
Anywhere?
I can't.
So why aren't YOU asking yourself "why" like I do?
If it is to be believed, why is there no support for the claims?

Perhaps you now understand why this looks like yet another "project fear" piece of reporting - besides which (as Conrad has already pointed out above):

Things are settling down, lots of global firms are investing here.

Unless you have evidence otherwise?

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

Quite, but that's not the argument being peddaled by many a remainer and some European politicians that say the UK market is not important, that the 27 will 'easily' sell more elsewhere to make up the loss of UK business when the EU introduces trade hampering tariffs and barriers

It is the same argument; we export far more to Europe than Europe exports to us, in percentage terms. Some firms will be badly hit if trade suffers, but most will barely be a blip. As I said before, if all German cars stop selling in Germany (your most popular example), it's a hit of about 20%. But all German car sales will not stop.

Europe will shrug off poorer trade with the UK much more easily than we will. Even if we keep trade, sales will probably drop significantly due to our weakened buying power anyway.

One wonders why so many European firms are investing heavily in UK marketing

Because, as we've pointed out to you, European firms are not going to drop the UK as a customer, and are still going to sell (albeit at a lower rate) and therefore advertise.

Herzlos

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Here is a link to Hitachi's own report:
https://www.hitachicapital.co.uk/news-media/businesses-abandon-655bn-of-investments/
See if you can find a link to the quoted survey?
After all, it was jointly comissioned by them.
Or even WHEN the survey was taken?

The_first_line_of_the_page wrote:

14 November 2016 – A third of all British businesses have abandoned investments totalling £65.5 billion as a result of the Brexit vote, according to Hitachi Capital and the CEBR (Centre for Economic and Business Research) in a study into British businesses.

So it was announced by Hitachi, on their own website, on Monday. That means that whilst we don't know when the interviews were taken, it's unlikely be more than a few weeks old.

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

Europe will shrug off poorer trade with the UK much more easily than we will.

.

This is probably your number one blind-spot, as you will find out. Think of all the fuss over a few thousand jobs at risk due to Chinese steel dumping, nothing compared to the huge number engaged in trade with UK


Utter nonsense that European Governments such as the French will casually inform their voters that their jobs and livelihoods will be sacrificed for some abstract E Union objective.


You endlessly talk of the 27. Irrelevant. The CORE exporter nations and funders of the EU are relevant.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Herzlos wrote: »

So it was announced by Hitachi, on their own website, on Monday. That means that whilst we don't know when the interviews were taken, it's unlikely be more than a few weeks old.

So please tell me: where else would published research be accepted without supporting evidence?
Even back when undertaking my degree, were I to try this tactic as part of my studies I would have been (quite severely, BTW) reprimanded for not fully and accurately referencing.

I will therefore continue to judge such reports with great suspicion.

prosaver

Herzlos wrote: »

It is the same argument; we export far more to Europe than Europe exports to us, in percentage terms. Some firms will be badly hit if trade suffers, but most will barely be a blip. As I said before, if all German cars stop selling in Germany (your most popular example), it's a hit of about 20%. But all German car sales will not stop.

Europe will shrug off poorer trade with the UK much more easily than we will. Even if we keep trade, sales will probably drop significantly due to our weakened buying power anyway.




.

Europe may shrug off trade with the UK , but separate countries like france and germany will lose thousands of jobs and I dont think the voters are going to be happy with that.

ANGELA Merkel will have to agree to a free trade deal with an independent United Kingdom because 750,000 jobs rely on cross-Channel exports, a senior economics analyst has warned.

ref express

Herzlos

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

So please tell me: where else would published research be accepted without supporting evidence?
Even back when undertaking my degree, were I to try this tactic as part of my studies I would have been (quite severely, BTW) reprimanded for not fully and accurately referencing.

I will therefore continue to judge such reports with great suspicion.

And so you should; it's a private report comissioned from YouGov, I'm not sure they publish the data. Plus, it's a survey rather than any solid metric.