If we vote for Brexit what happens

mayonnaise

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

As opposed to sarcasm - especially failed sarcasm which is not so effective you mean?

Now since I at least have no desire to exhibit the attitude of a spoilt child having the last word, I will refrain from further discussion upon this matter.

prosaver

Herzlos wrote: »

I don't think you quite get it though; we don't hold the EU over a barrel on their trade, because we're talking about forcing some of their companies to make some smallish cost cutting measures, and not shutting down entire industries. Most industries will be looking at less than a 10% decline in revenue, which can happen anyway. Some of the revenue loss can be targeted elsewhere in the EU that now has a harder time getting UK sourced stuff too.

The converse doesn't work the other way; if we lose good trade with the EU, we look at losing closer to 40%, which will end industries and throw us into recession.

I'm pretty sure we'll come up with a pretty decent deal all in, but that'll be because the UK caves, not the EU. We hold no upper hand here.

The EU might want to be hard on the UK, but i think france, germany will veto any trade deals that will effect their job losses .

A_Medium_Size_Jock

prosaver wrote: »

The EU might want to be hard on the UK, but i think france, germany will veto any trade deals that will effect their job losses .

Agreed - and that is if the EU exists then (in over two years time, remember) as it does now.
Which is looking increasingly unlikely.

Herzlos

prosaver wrote: »

The EU might want to be hard on the UK, but i think france, germany will veto any trade deals that will effect their job losses .

Which means we'll never come to an agreement and revert to WTO :j

mrginge

Herzlos wrote: »

Which means we'll never come to an agreement and revert to WTO :j

Finally the penny drops....

Herzlos

mrginge wrote: »

Finally the penny drops....

Alas, WTO terms will be catastrophic for us. That's largely been my point for the last hundred or so pages.

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

Alas, WTO terms will be catastrophic for us. That's largely been my point for the last hundred or so pages.

in what way are WTO rules catastrophic?

Herzlos

CLAPTON wrote: »

in what way are WTO rules catastrophic?

Do we need to start this *again*?

Single market. Customs union. Tariff free trade. We lose all of that.

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

Do we need to start this *again*?

Single market. Customs union. Tariff free trade. We lose all of that.

many countries trade under WTO so why (if it came to that ) would WTO be catastrophic for us?

Herzlos

CLAPTON wrote: »

many countries trade under WTO so why (if it came to that ) would WTO be catastrophic for us?

Herzlos wrote: »

Single market. Customs union. Tariff free trade. We lose all of that.

I don't know how I can make that clearer. But we've been round this circle before, so I'm out.