If we vote for Brexit what happens

CLAPTON

wotsthat wrote: »

He doesn't want to talk about the trade deficit widening.

i have explained by views about the current a/c deficit and its consequences before the brexit referendum.
I don't believe the basis economic theory has changed so I have had no reason to change by mind.
I am happy to repeat the long version if you wish but briefly
a high and sustained current a/c deficit needs to be financed via the capital account and so will lead to
-increased net foreign debt
-decrease in net foreign assets (i.e. the difference between asset we hold abroad and UK assets held by foreigners)
-a decrease in net dividend flows for the foreseeable future

I accept that this make us richer now but at the cost of being poorer in the future.

I further believe that this is not sustainable and events will mean that foreigners will be less willing to lend and/or less willing to buy UK assets. The consequence will lead to a fall in the value of the pound.
The fall in the value of the pound will lead increased prices of imported goods but should make exports more attractive to foreigners.
Over time I would expect this to reduce the current a/c deficit.

I understand, but do not see evidence for, your view that the UK is producing new businesses at a rate and size that means we can continue to sell UK assets indefinitely.

I don't know the timescale for the impacts on the deficit of the falling pound nor do I know how the other world economic event will affect the UK.

I don't share the view that brexit is the only significant event this year nor do I share the view that a few months data is sufficient to detect a trend.

Masomnia

Herzlos wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/nov/09/uk-trade-deficit-widens-september-exports-fall-pound-drop

I thought the weakening GBP was the answer to all of our problems?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J_curve

I thought you remainers were all economic experts and it was us idiot Brixiteers that didn't have a clue?

wotsthat

setmefree2 wrote: »

Tell that to France's Eurosceptic Left Front Party.

Quite. You don't have to be on the outer reaches of the left/ right political spectrum to support brexit but if you are you probably do.

wotsthat

CLAPTON wrote: »

i have explained by views about the current a/c deficit and its consequences before the brexit referendum.
I don't believe the basis economic theory has changed so I have had no reason to change by mind.
I am happy to repeat the long version if you wish but briefly
a high and sustained current a/c deficit needs to be financed via the capital account and so will lead to
-increased net foreign debt
-decrease in net foreign assets (i.e. the difference between asset we hold abroad and UK assets held by foreigners)
-a decrease in net dividend flows for the foreseeable future

I accept that this make us richer now but at the cost of being poorer in the future.

I further believe that this is not sustainable and events will mean that foreigners will be less willing to lend and/or less willing to buy UK assets. The consequence will lead to a fall in the value of the pound.
The fall in the value of the pound will lead increased prices of imported goods but should make exports more attractive to foreigners.
Over time I would expect this to reduce the current a/c deficit.

I understand, but do not see evidence for, your view that the UK is producing new businesses at a rate and size that means we can continue to sell UK assets indefinitely.

I don't know the timescale for the impacts on the deficit of the falling pound nor do I know how the other world economic event will affect the UK.

I don't share the view that brexit is the only significant event this year nor do I share the view that a few months data is sufficient to detect a trend.

Thanks. It's probably just too early to see the effects of currency. If I place a far-east order today I won't see it until the New Year for example.

I really don't see the relevance of Nazi/ Jewish science though.

Conrad

setmefree2 wrote: »

Makes me laugh how much bile and hate Moby pours on to the white uneducated working classes.....and he calls himself a Leftie. Emily Thornberry hating on white van man, Chakrabarti and Essex Man. It's no wonder the Labour Party have lost the working class vote. Bunch of patronising, elitist snobs.

Moby crystallises why the working classes across the west have turned their backs on the smug, condescending holy liberal sect with their over eager millionaire celeb hangers-on.


Labour is successful only when the interests of its two constituents – the left bourgeoisie and the working class – coincide. In the modern world, so far, they do not.

System

mayonnaise wrote: »

Downing Street scrambles to explain why Donald Trump has spoken with nine world leaders – but not Theresa May


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/president-donald-trump-theresa-may-special-relationship-world-leaders-call-downing-street-a7409301.html

Back of the queue in the 'people to call' list already. :rotfl:

He won't call Theresa, he'll just turn up and grab her minky.

Conrad

Moby wrote: »

Both Brexit and the American election were victories energised by a backlash from the disenfranchised uneducated white working classes

Think the north and the poor caused Brexit? Think again


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/aug/07/north-poor-brexit-myths
Zoe Williams

'In fact, most leave voters were in the south: the south-east, south-west – indeed the entire south apart from London voted leave'.

'Furthermore, most leave voters are middle class, or at least were of the generation whose housing and pension windfalls put them squarely in the category of wealth'.

prosaver

if the polls were wrong b4 people voted, how can
the exit polls be accurate,? Did people say after they voted'' ok Ill tell you the truth now?''
Would you tell someone who you voted for if they asked you outside,?
I wouldnt.

antrobus

prosaver wrote: »

if the polls were wrong b4 people voted, how can
the exit polls be accurate,? Did people say after they voted'' ok Ill tell you the truth now?''
Would you tell someone who you voted for if they asked you outside,?
I wouldnt.

Exit polls tend to be more accurate because they ask people who have actually voted. And they know where they've voted. Which actually matters where you have FPTP.


Ordinary opinion polls normally have some kind of turnout modelling i.e. it is known that the world is full of people who will state with a 100% certainty that they will vote Labour, United Democratic Front, or whatever, despite the fact that they have never been any where near a polling booth in their lives. So clever intellectual people have a good guess as to how many lying weasels there are in their sample, and like all clever intellectual people they sometimes guess wrong.


In our 2015 General Election the opinion polls all suggested a hung parliament; the Guardian even predicted it was going to be a dead heat. What a surprise it was to a lot of people when the exit poll came out. Granted it wasn't exactly right, but it was along the right lines.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32634100

kabayiri

Joeskeppi wrote: »

He won't call Theresa, he'll just turn up and grab her minky.

How do *you* know the name of Theresa's pet cat?!

Is there something we should know?