If we vote for Brexit what happens

setmefree2

Gina Miller says she WON'T appeal her Brexit case at the European court if she loses in the Supreme Court

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3912506/Gina-Miller-says-WON-T-Brexit-case-European-court.html#ixzz4PKmgbNNd

setmefree2

mrginge wrote: »

could someone clarify for me, would being in the customs union mean we couldn't impose immigration controls or make our own trade deals?

We could control immigration but we can't make our own trade deals.

Conrad

It all comes back to the fact EU citizens in core trading nations will not take kindly at all to having their livelihoods put at risk with self imposed trade barriers and all the economic uncertainty and risk this would inculcate.


Ms May knows this, and knows we will probably just carry on trading pretty much as we are, although the EU will have to come up with some sort of notional punishment for us, and we will play along.

setmefree2

mrginge wrote: »

could someone clarify for me, would being in the customs union mean we couldn't impose immigration controls or make our own trade deals?

I would also like some details on the special arrangements Mr Starmer believes are necessary for Scotland, NI and wales.

Just so I know if I will be able to support this proposition.

setmefree2 wrote: »

We could control immigration but we can't make our own trade deals.

Bit more for you.

The EU customs union means that goods are not subject to tariffs when they cross borders between Member States within the EU. This is obviously beneficial for free trade. But there is a down side. The fact that the EU is a customs union means that all Member States including the UK must apply the EU common rate of customs tariffs to all goods entering them from outside the EU. Member States are not allowed to vary from these rates in either the higher or lower direction, since this would lead to goods entering the EU through the ports of the country with the lowest tariffs and then being re-exported to other Member States tariff-free inside the customs union.

It also means that Member States are not allowed to conclude trade agreements with non-Member countries. Such agreements are covered by the EU’s “common commercial policy” which is one of the EU’s “exclusive competences”. So, only the EU as a whole can do trade deals with non-EU countries. The problem with this is that, largely thanks to the diverse and sometimes protectionist interests of certain powerful Member States, the EU has in fact been remarkably poor in successfully concluding trade agreements with countries outside the EU’s own sphere of clients states in Eastern Europe, North Africa and ex-colonies of some of its members.

One consequence of belonging to the customs union is that the UK is required to impose high tariffs on some categories of goods where the UK no longer has any significant domestic industry to protect - for example, textiles and footwear. This results in UK consumers having to pay higher prices for these goods than they are available for on the world market, with the benefit of the higher prices going to the protected industries in other EU states.

Accordingly, being in a customs union is far from being an unmixed benefit of EU membership. While tariff-free movement of goods is beneficial to UK exporters and to UK consumers who sell products to or buy products from other EU Member States, the down side is (1) having to comply with the EU common customs tariffs which can drive up prices of goods from non-EU states, and (2) being unable to negotiate trade agreements separately from the EU.

Currently, there is only one major non-EU country which is within the EU customs union, namely Turkey. There are numerous European and non-European states which enjoy tariff free access to the EU single market via free trade agreements, including the EFTA states (Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein). In fact, all European countries outside the EU have tariff-free access to the EU single market under FTAs with the exception of Russia and Belorussia.

http://www.lawyersforbritain.org/eu-deal-single-market.shtml

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

It all comes back to the fact EU citizens in core trading nations will not take kindly at all to having their livelihoods put at risk with self imposed trade barriers and all the economic uncertainty and risk this would inculcate.

Except that adding minor tariffs or barriers to trade with the UK will not put their livelihoods at risk any further than the massive devaluation of the GBP. Baravian car manufacturing aren't completely reliant on UK sales, and UK sales will not completely dry up.

You're assuming that if the EU doesn't give good terms to the UK, that the 750,000 German automotive workers will storm parliament. They won't; they'll mutter a bit and go back to selling cars to the other lucrative markets (USA, China) whilst selling slightly less to those in the UK, where they've suddenly become even more of a pointless status symbol.

In any negotiating stand-off with the EU, we've got more to lose than they do.

Conrad

David Davis is on his feet in the Commons now....

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

Except that adding minor tariffs or barriers to trade with the UK will not put their livelihoods at risk any further than the massive devaluation of the GBP. Baravian car manufacturing aren't completely reliant on UK sales, and UK sales will not completely dry up.

You're assuming that if the EU doesn't give good terms to the UK, that the 750,000 German automotive workers will storm parliament. They won't; they'll mutter a bit and go back to selling cars to the other lucrative markets (USA, China) whilst selling slightly less to those in the UK, where they've suddenly become even more of a pointless status symbol.

In any negotiating stand-off with the EU, we've got more to lose than they do.

France and some others are just at long last recovering, I do not think it likely French citizens will take kindly to deliberate hampering of their trade and livelihoods.


You always say they will just make up for lost trade with other places, funny then that they wallowed with mass unemployment and decline all these years when all they had to do was sell a bit more to the US etc, which btw HAVE NO TRADE DEAL WITH THE EU


You also ignore our other aces such as access to our very rich fishing grounds and the fact Europe would not wish bad blood between them and us, the main local military power, well committed on the Russian border right now

Herzlos

I think you're vastly overestimating how much the German and French car industries rely on our trade.

We buy about 45k cars from German manufactures a month, whilst the rest of Europe buys about nearly 200k cars from German manufacturers a month.

Assuming that after Brexit, we buy exactly 0 German cars, we've only knocked 20% off their output. A high number they don't want, but they'll get by. Of course, since VW's are regarded as high quality and BMW/Audi are prestige cars, it's unlikely sales would drop anywhere near that, unless the tariffs were huge. So At absolute worst, I reckon the German car industry are likely to take a hit of at month 5% of their output, assuming that our sales drop by 25%, or about 12,500 cars a month.

Sure, we have some fishing ground and the rights to sell it on, but regarding the bad blood - as far as I can tell (a) it's all been caused by us and (b) we haven't been a main military power for decades. We've got a skeleton air force, a barely functioning navy, and an army that's been cut to the bone. Though to be fair, we rank 2nd on this scale : http://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing-europe.asp Again, we're not that big in comparison with Europe as a whole.

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

You're assuming that if the EU doesn't give good terms to the UK, that the 750,000 German automotive workers will storm parliament. They won't; they'll mutter a bit and go back to selling cars to the other lucrative markets (USA, China) whilst selling slightly less to those in the UK, where they've suddenly become even more of a pointless status symbol.

are you seriously suggesting that Germany has restricted its car sales to USA, China etc because they prefer to supply the UK instead.

seems rather unlikely to me.

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

How so? What did I say that was ranting, inaccurate or unworthy? Do you deny that Jo Cox was murdered? Politically? Because of her pro-EU stance?

what I am saying is that Joe Cox was killed by an deranged nutcase
and it has nothing of relevance to say out the brexit debate : and you debase your arguments by claiming it is.