If we vote for Brexit what happens

CLAPTON

wotsthat wrote: »

You don't think they'll be buying less imported products and more British made goods? That's meant to be one of the 'benefits' of a weak currency isn't it. A devaluation doesn't in itself balance trade - it's people's behaviours and adjustments that do it.

Sterling hasn't just fallen by an odd % or two. It spent the whole of 2016 weakening and fell off a cliff in June. It's now at record lows. IMO people are underestimating just how profound the effects will be (positive and negative).

bizarre
of course we wll buy less foreign goods and substituting them for UK produced goods and substitute for the type of product and buy less and keep many goods for longer.

the fall was inevitable : with a massive current a/c trade deficit there was no realistic alternative.
The people of the UK have been consuming more than they produced: borrowing, selling assets and selling future dividend/profit streams can't last for ever.

Look on the bright side : it can all be blamed on brexit and you need never have to admit the fundamental truths


There are loads of articles on the web about Germany relative high level of devaluation : some estimates that if the DM still existed it would be 30% higher than the euro
the people of germany don't seem that worried and many people here seem to praise the Germany economic model


and example from 2015 but plenty others for you to find.
http://www.policyreview.eu/poor-marks-for-germany-in-ongoing-currency-devaluation/

cogito

Rinoa wrote: »

http://order-order.com/2016/10/28/polish-government-tells-european-commission-get-lost/

Rebellion is spreading.

This is what the Poles are responding to:

https://www.neweurope.eu/article/the-wests-other-trump/

A democratically elected government being lectured about democracy by an unelected arch-federalist, Guy Verhofstadt. The same individual who has been appointed to conduct Brexit negotiations on behalf of the EU.

ruggedtoast

CLAPTON wrote: »

I can't see a 'huge' adjustment: people will simply shop at lidls rather waitrose, substitute cheaper brands or products, buy less and keep things longer.
UK industry and businesses will respond by competing in different ways: where its now possible to trade profitably where previously it was not possible.

What about the people who already shop at Lidl because they can't afford anywhere else and are about to see their grocery bills spiral by 25%?

I appreciate your contemplation of this scenario involves thinking about people other than yourself and actually empathising with them, not something that comes naturally to you in any way, but give it a try.

cogito

ruggedtoast wrote: »

What about the people who already shop at Lidl because they can't afford anywhere else and are about to see their grocery bills spiral by 25%?

I appreciate your contemplation of this scenario involves thinking about people other than yourself and actually empathising with them, not something that comes naturally to you in any way, but give it a try.

People don't necessarily shop at Lidl and Aldi because they're cheap. They shop there because they supply good quality products at a reasonable price. They don't take the mickey out of their customers with fake offers in the way that Tesco do. Have you ever seen the car parks at Lidl and Aldi in the run up to Christmas? Shoppers in Chelsea tractors carrying Waitrose bags to put their groceries in so their neighbours don't know where they shop?

CLAPTON

ruggedtoast wrote: »

What about the people who already shop at Lidl because they can't afford anywhere else and are about to see their grocery bills spiral by 25%?

I appreciate your contemplation of this scenario involves thinking about people other than yourself and actually empathising with them, not something that comes naturally to you in any way, but give it a try.

the economics of the situation make the fall in the pound inevitable.

if you believe in Lysentko rather than Jewish economics then there is little I can do to educate you.

David_Aston

leveller2911, you highlighted a line or so of my contribution, and then posted your opinion of what happened on polling day. Simply, I disagree with you, but neither of us actually know. I did sign the petition, and would certainly like at least one more referendum. I must assume from your views, you feel very confident that the first result would be repeated?
As to ongoing plans for the EU, I am sure my views diverge very much from the majority of posters on this forum at least.
A United States of Europe. For strength and ongoing prosperity, groupings of Nations, rather than retreating into Global isolation.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

David_Aston wrote: »

leveller2911, you highlighted a line or so of my contribution, and then posted your opinion of what happened on polling day. Simply, I disagree with you, but neither of us actually know. I did sign the petition, and would certainly like at least one more referendum. I must assume from your views, you feel very confident that the first result would be repeated?
As to ongoing plans for the EU, I am sure my views diverge very much from the majority of posters on this forum at least.
A United States of Europe. For strength and ongoing prosperity, groupings of Nations, rather than retreating into Global isolation.

The theory may be admirable - but also sadly inherently flawed.
It is not possible to even keep factions within countries happy and for them to agree.
There are so many examples - think Catalonia; Basques; Wallonia in Belgium as just a few.
Do you think getting an increasing number of countries agreeable to every decision is going to be easier?
So the chances of"A United States Of Europe" is, as the EU is slowly beginning to realise, frankly unworkable.

kinger101

David_Aston wrote: »

leveller2911, you highlighted a line or so of my contribution, and then posted your opinion of what happened on polling day. Simply, I disagree with you, but neither of us actually know. I did sign the petition, and would certainly like at least one more referendum. I must assume from your views, you feel very confident that the first result would be repeated?
As to ongoing plans for the EU, I am sure my views diverge very much from the majority of posters on this forum at least.
A United States of Europe. For strength and ongoing prosperity, groupings of Nations, rather than retreating into Global isolation.

If we have another referendum, we'll end up on WTO terms which will be a disaster. The EU have already said no negotiations until article 50 is invoked. They're not going to bother with any negotiations at all if they potentially lead nowhere.

ruggedtoast

CLAPTON wrote: »

the economics of the situation make the fall in the pound inevitable.

if you believe in Lysentko rather than Jewish economics then there is little I can do to educate you.

What a shame. You are such a fount of coherent knowledge too.

ruggedtoast

cogito wrote: »

People don't necessarily shop at Lidl and Aldi because they're cheap. They shop there because they supply good quality products at a reasonable price. They don't take the mickey out of their customers with fake offers in the way that Tesco do. Have you ever seen the car parks at Lidl and Aldi in the run up to Christmas? Shoppers in Chelsea tractors carrying Waitrose bags to put their groceries in so their neighbours don't know where they shop?

Oh yes thats right. I forgot there aren't any poor people in the UK and we all drive Chelsea tractors on our way to peruse Lidl's centre aisle for cut price crash helmets and shower attachments for a jolly old laugh.

Silly me.

And you people wonder why Corbyn is leading the Labour Party.