If we vote for Brexit what happens

Yamumuk

One thing for sure is this is not quite the Tsunami of good news Conrad suspected. In fact in keeping with large scale wave activity it is suggested if Nissan was not nipped in the bud it would set precedent for many others : "Sunderland’s closure would have caused a political tidal wave and set a precedent for other carmakers to locate future work outside Britain"

https://www.ft.com/content/21346414-9d25-11e6-a6e4-8b8e77dd083a

As I said it is potentially going to be part nationalization. Every manufacturer will want some of these "assurances".

Given a fairly large proportion of people in the N.E. voted Brexit May had no choice as I saw somewhere the N.E. would be finished without Nissan. Now I am agreed that the N.E. has been badly treated for decades since the 1980's with coal mines closing etc. But this is a pure Brexit tactic to save a big foreign company from moving workforce elsewhere. Fact is they were going after Brexit cause they know the uncertainty for the next unknown amount of years is not a safe place to operate a business.

I believe it would be a logistical nightmare for Nissan to move the ops (I.T. robotics, plant supply chain etc. it would be far from easy) as I explained above so it is common sense to stay but they still seemed to need some kind of bail out, subsidy, compensation etc. It is not a good precedent to set that "Sure we know Brexit is bad news so we are going to be handing out our occupants dosh to keep them here."

Indeed the word compensation was used:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-autoshow-paris-nissan-britain-idUKKCN11Z1YQ?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=408

So it seems that compensation will be coming from our, the tax payers pocket. Not quite the good news it is touted to be. We pay higher prices in shops for groceries and now get slapped with a risky deal for Nissan. I wonder how many deals it will take to make Brexit look good once the cracks really start appearing.

We have not even left yet and the first sign of doubt and May is handing our money over in some form or other.

buglawton

As real Brexit draws closer I'm hoping there can be a revival of the 'Lifetime mobility club of Nations' idea among a set of similarly developed English-speaking countries.

As per this article in fact:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/14/reciprocal-living-and-working-rights-backed-in-uk-australia-nz-and-canada

Because one unfair issue that Brits have faced in job mobility is that our culture does not support learning foreign languages. Actually it would be very difficult for a young person to choose the right one to learn long in advance of getting work experience in the UK first then deciding 'Italy would be a nice place to work' for example.

This partly explains why so very few Brits emigrate or go for a work sabbatical on the EU mainland. While the UK has an incredibly (I would say uniquely) open attitude to foreign workers coming here, most EU countries put up hidden barriers like bureaucracy and employer reluctance. Add these to language and you see why migration between EU and UK is so very unbalanced.

A strong English-speaking reciprocity club would open the UK's horizon quite a lot. With it should be the possibility of easy retirement in one of the reciprocating countries. Healthcare coverage issues would need hammering out of course.

I can easily see Canada, Australia, and NZ joining us in this, the USA would probably be too snooty about it.

kabayiri

wotsthat wrote: »

You don't think they'll be buying less imported products and more British made goods? That's meant to be one of the 'benefits' of a weak currency isn't it. A devaluation doesn't in itself balance trade - it's people's behaviours and adjustments that do it.

Sterling hasn't just fallen by an odd % or two. It spent the whole of 2016 weakening and fell off a cliff in June. It's now at record lows. IMO people are underestimating just how profound the effects will be (positive and negative).

I doubt any recent populist UK government would have had a mandate to push through change to produce similar effects.

We know that personal debt levels are still too high, and yet there seems little inclination amongst those struggling to hold back on tv and computer and phone purchases.

It is hard to predict the full effects, but maybe we will see a renewed interest in service and repair, for example?

kabayiri

Yamumuk wrote: »

...
So it seems that compensation will be coming from our, the tax payers pocket. Not quite the good news it is touted to be. We pay higher prices in shops for groceries and now get slapped with a risky deal for Nissan. I wonder how many deals it will take to make Brexit look good once the cracks really start appearing.

We have not even left yet and the first sign of doubt and May is handing our money over in some form or other.

There is an argument to suggest that the taxpayer, both here and in the USA, have been subsidising big business for years.

When I was over there, someone I know made the argument that McDonalds and Walmart are the biggest beneficiary of welfare! I'd never even considered it.

The poor will always pay.

Yamumuk

setmefree2 wrote: »

Tea grown in Cornwall.

25 bags for £9.95 at your not so local non corporation tax paying internet megastore.

Yamumuk

kabayiri wrote: »

There is an argument to suggest that the taxpayer, both here and in the USA, have been subsidising big business for years.

When I was over there, someone I know made the argument that McDonalds and Walmart are the biggest beneficiary of welfare! I'd never even considered it.

The poor will always pay.

Which almost certainly flies in the face of some E.U. legislation. See.. we really had control anyway where is was wanted.

wotsthat

kabayiri wrote: »

I doubt any recent populist UK government would have had a mandate to push through change to produce similar effects.

We know that personal debt levels are still too high, and yet there seems little inclination amongst those struggling to hold back on tv and computer and phone purchases.

It is hard to predict the full effects, but maybe we will see a renewed interest in service and repair, for example?

Maybe the indebted won't be able get their hands on a 60" TV quite so easily but I would note that people making poor decisions now will likely still be making them in the future.

Did you see that Sweden started giving tax breaks for repairs?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/19/waste-not-want-not-sweden-tax-breaks-repairs

kabayiri

wotsthat wrote: »

...

Did you see that Sweden started giving tax breaks for repairs?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/sep/19/waste-not-want-not-sweden-tax-breaks-repairs

I didn't know. That's interesting, thanks.

There is one UK premium audio brand which recommends a 5 year service schedule on some of their products (products built in the UK).

The aim is clear. To maintain the brand reputation for longevity and performance.

The idea that we all follow up the consumption/disposal model that applies to Apple products is not true. (A number of Apple products score 1 out of 10 for repairability).

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Yamumuk wrote: »

One thing for sure is this is not quite the Tsunami of good news Conrad suspected. In fact in keeping with large scale wave activity it is suggested if Nissan was not nipped in the bud it would set precedent for many others : "Sunderland’s closure would have caused a political tidal wave and set a precedent for other carmakers to locate future work outside Britain"

https://www.ft.com/content/21346414-9d25-11e6-a6e4-8b8e77dd083a

As I said it is potentially going to be part nationalization. Every manufacturer will want some of these "assurances".

Given a fairly large proportion of people in the N.E. voted Brexit May had no choice as I saw somewhere the N.E. would be finished without Nissan. Now I am agreed that the N.E. has been badly treated for decades since the 1980's with coal mines closing etc. But this is a pure Brexit tactic to save a big foreign company from moving workforce elsewhere. Fact is they were going after Brexit cause they know the uncertainty for the next unknown amount of years is not a safe place to operate a business.

I believe it would be a logistical nightmare for Nissan to move the ops (I.T. robotics, plant supply chain etc. it would be far from easy) as I explained above so it is common sense to stay but they still seemed to need some kind of bail out, subsidy, compensation etc. It is not a good precedent to set that "Sure we know Brexit is bad news so we are going to be handing out our occupants dosh to keep them here."

Indeed the word compensation was used:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-autoshow-paris-nissan-britain-idUKKCN11Z1YQ?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=408

So it seems that compensation will be coming from our, the tax payers pocket. Not quite the good news it is touted to be. We pay higher prices in shops for groceries and now get slapped with a risky deal for Nissan. I wonder how many deals it will take to make Brexit look good once the cracks really start appearing.

We have not even left yet and the first sign of doubt and May is handing our money over in some form or other.

Again you succumb to media descriptives rather than seeing (or waiting for) facts.
The same British Media that has not exactly, shall we say, been positive regarding anything about Brexit.
So much so that there have been threads here in the forums.
Do you not even wonder why that is?

You also close your eyes to the FACT that "incentives" have pretty-much ALWAYS been used to encourage business - in the UK and globally.
That's why (just for one example) Luxembourg are currently being investigated by the EU for "encouraging" businesses such as Amazon, McDonalds and even energy firm Engie.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/eu-investigates-luxembourgs-tax-treatment-of-engie-1474284114

The only "doubt" as you phrase it appears to be that of an almost-fanatical pro-remain POV together with those (such as the SNP) who clearly wish to sow seeds of discontent and division.

Considering what May et al have had to reconcile in a short time IMHO she is actually doing an admirable job and - though I hasten to add she (and indeed her ilk) are NOT my personal choice - her forthrightness and determination in the face of EU diatribe are to be applauded.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Ballard wrote: »

From the posts that I've read on here most from the leave side don't, in my opinion, offer a great deal of logic. It has largely been along the lines of 'faceless bureaurocrats' and 'bendy bananas'.

I'm sorry but I have to take issue with that statement.
Particularly when by far the majority of pro-remain posts concern threats, vague ideas and "but if's" whilst ignoring hard data and facts - especially since the referendum result was known.

Strange too how these are often the same posters now crying "we are still in the EU" or "We haven't left the EU yet" when BEFORE the referendum they were full of the IMMEDIATE "doom and gloom" consequences of choosing to leave the EU.

AGAIN I say that - like everybody - we cannot be certain what the future holds.
Be it economically, politically or otherwise.
As always there are sure to be both ups and downs.
One thing I can however say with certainty is that so far the future is looking much more positive than these same pro-remain posters in these threads have so far suggested.
By some considerable margin, too.