If we vote for Brexit what happens

Conrad

Comments all over the Guardian / Observer and Independent tell me the UK has had it, will be severely punished, will suffer greatly.


Elsewhere these same commenters urge us to take more refugees. Shouldn't they be warning them to choose France instead given our impending Armageddon?

setmefree2

EU Firms Could Pay Twice as Much in Export Tariffs as UK Companies After Brexit

The UK exporters may be forced to pay up to 5.2 billion pounds ($6.36 billion) more in tariffs when exporting to the European Union following Brexit, while the European exporters may face the bill of 12.9 billion pounds, a new study revealed.

"In total the EU faces a potential of having to deal with the cost of £12.9 billion in UK tariffs, an average levy of 5.8%, and UK exporters face EU tariffs of £5.2 billion, an average of 4.5%," the study by Justin Protts of the UK-based Civitas think tank showed.

The estimations were based on the potential tariffs the parties may be dealing with if the trade was conducted under WTO Most Favored Nations (MFN) terms following the United Kingdom withdrawal from the bloc without any new trade deals.

Read more: https://sputniknews.com/europe/201610241046661203-eu-export-tariffs-brexit/

wotsthat

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Why would your employer move you to Germany at a huge cost. Plenty of locals who could adequately perform your job. Is your German up to scratch? One thing to be a tourist, another to be in business.

Why is it so difficult to envisage employers moving away from the UK and taking some of their employees with them?

Take a look around. See if you can spot anyone in employment with less than perfect English doing a job that couldn't be performed by a local.

The British aversion to moving away from where they were born is a luxury afforded by the strength of the economy. If that economy is weakened by Brexit they'll become a little more flexible.

wotsthat

I don't see any positives in EU exporters paying more tariffs than UK exporters. UK/ EU trade is tariff free but if we end up on WTO terms there will be £18.1bn in new tariffs searching for a consumer to pay them.

The idea of tariff wars resulting in lots of winners is naive.

setmefree2

Brexit impact felt by Irish food exporters as British pound plunge pushes prices higher

Ireland is the food bowl of the UK, supplying a quarter of all Britain's beef, much of its vegetables, milk and processed food.
But now trade-exposed Irish farmers and food exporters are seeking help from their government, as Britain begins to leave the European Union.
Britain takes 40 per cent of all the food and drinks produced in Ireland, more than Euro 4.5 billion worth or $6.5 billion.
But four months after Britain's Leave Europe vote, the pound has plunged to the lowest level in 30 years, reducing the amount Britons can pay.
A Brisbane-based lawyer who worked for more than 20 years in Ireland on Corporate and EU law said Ireland has been caught napping.
"Ireland didn't have a contingency plan for the referendum," McCullough Robertson partner John Kettle said.
"What's happened is there was no plan B.
"For that part of the economy not based on financial services and tax structuring deals around Dublin, the UK is an incredibly important market for Irish produce.
"So if there's a hard Brexit, and tariffs are put up, that's one impediment for Irish produce going to Britain.
"And the Sterling has collapsed by 20–25 per cent against the Euro since June, so that makes Irish agri-produce much more expensive.
"So it's difficult to make long-term supply arrangements with UK retailers who are going to squeeze them on price."
Irish farmers are also threatened by cheaper produce coming out of the United Kingdom.
"They're caught in a perfect storm!" Mr Kettle said.
Ireland's food board —Bord Bia — is offering trade-exposed Irish food companies a grant to cope with the vacuum of political and trade certainty.
Bord Bia's Padraig Brennan said with the lower Pound, Irish food was becoming expensive in the UK.

"What we're trying to do now is develop a fund for companies with a turnover of less than Euro 30 million a year.
"We're prioritising those companies with a particular level of dependency on the UK market."
Meanwhile, Australia is hoping for a Free Trade deal with Europe within the next two years, and a bilateral deal with the UK.
Even if Britons have to pay more for Australian food and wine, Irish Australian lawyer John Kettle said exporters were in a good position.
"Australia really needs to run a brand Australia program in the UK to say "we're going to stand by you in these hard times, and we're going to put as much product into the UK to show that we want to trade with you," he said.
"You can't underestimate the amount of irrational sentiment of purchasing into the future."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-24/irish-food-exporters-exposed-to-fallout-from-brexit/7960320

That's so true John Kettle. When I can't buy UK my next option will be Aussie!

I do feel sorry for the Irish.

Herzlos

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Why would your employer move you to Germany

(Not that I expect to get moved, but) I spend much more time visiting EU customers than UK customers.

Thrugelmir wrote: »

at a huge cost.

Cost is relative. How much does it cost to move me Vs how much does it save to move me?

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Plenty of locals who could adequately perform your job.

Fortunately for me, no. I have a lot of experience that isn't available locally.

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Is your German up to scratch?

Es is nicht so gut.

Thrugelmir wrote: »

One thing to be a tourist, another to be in business.

Oh definitely.

I'm just making the point is that the barriers to moving aren't as high for either employer/employee as some people may assume. Frankfurt isn't that far away.

setmefree2

wotsthat wrote: »

I don't see any positives in EU exporters paying more tariffs than UK exporters. UK/ EU trade is tariff free but if we end up on WTO terms there will be £18.1bn in new tariffs searching for a consumer to pay them.

The idea of tariff wars resulting in lots of winners is naive.

Well, a fair amount of that trade will come back to the UK, so it's easy to see the UK has winners. Hard to see how the EU wins tbh.

Thrugelmir

wotsthat wrote: »

Why is it so difficult to envisage employers moving away from the UK and taking some of their employees with them?

I'd didn't none. Obviously there are key individuals with particular specialist skills. That are worth relocating.

Nor can an operation simply be moved instantly. There'll be parallel running between twin locations for some time. With a progressive transfer of work.

setmefree2

wotsthat wrote: »

There isn't going to be a vote about whether article 50 be triggered (and never was).

There might be. It's going through the courts. (google Article 50 court case ) There is also an on going court case in NI.

setmefree2

Tromking wrote: »

is the notorious Brit hater Sarkozy still in the running for next year?

Still in the running and actually very pro the UK not leaving - he even wants treaty change to stop us going - said it was the first thing he would do if he won - however, Juppe is the favourite for right wing nomination and he's not a fan of us Brits.

It is expected that Le Pen will win the first ballot but Juppe will win overall. (This relates to nothing but fwiw Juppe is 71 - I'm getting a bit sick of these old politicians!)