If we vote for Brexit what happens

cells

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Your understanding of red tape and mine is somewhat different.

Legislation on standardisation of vacuum cleaners.
Farmers spending 2 hours a day on paperwork for animal welfare, food standards etc.
Companies in Financial Services filling in forms and collating data for the EU when they have no European clients.
Or the idea to stop olive oil being served in jugs in restauarants.

Totally bonkers and nonsense.

its a good thing for governments and regulators to do cost benefit analysis on behalf of their people. The vacuume cleaners is one such good regulation. Before all you had to go on was a picture of a vacuum what can you tell about a vacuum just by looking at it?
Now manufacturers need to state how effective it is on hard surfaces and carpets what its energy use is how loud it is and how much of the dust it hoovers up it spits back out into the air.
How is it bad to give the consumer actual information about products they are buying?

buglawton

wotsthat wrote: »

Unlike mortgage brokers (registered charities apparently) manufacturers and retailers are trying to maximise total profit. Every link in the supply chain is trying to get as much of the £2.27 retail price of a jar of marmite as possible.

This is MSE - I thought we all knew this.

What's the betting Unilever have enjoyed their best weekly sales of Marmite this year?

Have a look at the MS Marmite (yeast extract) challenge video - real thing vs Tesco own brand. Came out equal but of course own brand much cheaper. So often you are paying for brand.

Prediction: The UK £ crash will result in some deflation in Europe too, as UK consumers start to demand better deals from international brands.

cells

Conrad wrote: »

We import double that we sell to the EU and so we collect broadly double the tariffs which we can then use to reduce income taxes here or boost business.

The UK will probably do ok, you should just stick to the £10 billion less in EU payments which is significant and no one can argue against.

The biggest long term are probably going to be a +- 3% difference in GDP which will be hidden over time. And +1 or +2 years to the pension age as we import fewer working age young migrants.

In fact the politicians should have been honest about it all. Vote for brexit and we increase the pension age higher and faster. In fact we should probably bring forward the increase in the state pension age to 67 very quickly and that should increase to 68 from 2025


The idea that we are going to become tigers milking cows to sell artisan cheese to the french is silly so stop with that. £10 billion lower EU bill and a 1-2 year increase in the retirement age

Conrad

wotsthat wrote: »

There is no money tree. Someone pays and, eventually, it's always the consumer.

So taking the last 10 years, the pound vs other currencies has moved to an effect far greater than the effect of a 4% tariff.


Plus many were worried about lack of inflation until recently. A bit of inflation is necessary for a sound economy as you well know.


Furthermore what about the free trade cost benefits of our turning out globally? I've given plenty of examples.


In a nut shell, we would cope with wto tariffs absolutely no problem just as the other 186 other non Eu nations manage

Conrad

A reminder of 'fair value' - and think back to the furore when British Steel was seeking to close plants, and how a more competitive currency helps;


Central banks across the developed world are caught in a deflationary trap. The 'Wicksellian' or natural rate of interest has been falling ever lower with each economic cycle and is now at or below zero in half the global economy, a full seven years into the expansion.

This paralyses monetary policy and has dark implications for the next downturn. It is why central banks are desperately trying to drive down their currencies to gain a little breathing room, or in the case of the US Federal Reserve to stop the dollar rising.

By the accident of Brexit, Britain has pulled off a Wicksellian adjustment that eludes others.

wotsthat

Conrad wrote: »

So taking the last 10 years, the pound vs other currencies has moved to an effect far greater than the effect of a 4% tariff.

Plus many were worried about lack of inflation until recently. A bit of inflation is necessary for a sound economy as you well know.

Furthermore what about the free trade cost benefits of our turning out globally? I've given plenty of examples.

In a nut shell, we would cope with wto tariffs absolutely no problem just as the other 186 other non Eu nations manage

Just a few months ago if I'd said..

- we won't get a sweet deal
- Sterling will fall by 20%
- there will be an increase in inflation
- yes, food will be more expensive

You would've gone on about Planet Fear etc. yet, today,

- WTO rules are perfectly adequate
- it's good for the trade deficit
- we could do with a bit of inflation
- we could do with losing a few pounds

Yes, I'm sure we'll cope - I just enjoy irony - the unaware sort is my favourite.

wotsthat

buglawton wrote: »

Have a look at the MS Marmite (yeast extract) challenge video - real thing vs Tesco own brand. Came out equal but of course own brand much cheaper. So often you are paying for brand.

Prediction: The UK £ crash will result in some deflation in Europe too, as UK consumers start to demand better deals from international brands.

Many think branding and advertising is something which only affects the behaviour of others. Brands exist because they add value.

In terms of brand consumers value Marmite over Tesco own-label by c60p per jar. Real money for a product you suggest is identical.

Tesco wouldn't be happy if everyone swapped to their own-label as they'll be making a lower margin on it and would generate less cash. Own brands aren't margin enhancing but are intended to give choice and, more importantly, to provide a point of difference from other retailers.

CLAPTON

wotsthat wrote: »

Just a few months ago if I'd said..

- we won't get a sweet deal
- Sterling will fall by 20%
- there will be an increase in inflation
- yes, food will be more expensive

You would've gone on about Planet Fear etc. yet, today,

- WTO rules are perfectly adequate
- it's good for the trade deficit
- we could do with a bit of inflation
- we could do with losing a few pounds

Yes, I'm sure we'll cope - I just enjoy irony - the unaware sort is my favourite.

when over the last year or so I have posted numerous times about the large trade deficit and how it was unsustainable, you were totally in denial as you saw it as being anti-EU.

I enjoy the irony

cells

CLAPTON wrote: »

when over the last year or so I have posted numerous times about the large trade deficit and how it was unsustainable, you were totally in denial as you saw it as being anti-EU.

I enjoy the irony

why are you wasting your great skills on here you should be a currency options trader

Conrad

cells wrote: »

The idea that we are going to become tigers milking cows to sell artisan cheese

The point you have been missing is that SME's are very important to our economy, and this is why a flourishing of them aided by Brexit is VERY relevant. Your dismissing small producers as some sort of fringe minority irrelevance is well off the mark;


SMEs and the Economy:

• Small businesses accounted for 99.3% of all private sector businesses at the start of 2015 and 99.9% were small or medium-sized (SMEs).
• Total employment in SMEs was 15.6 million; 60% of all private sector employment in the UK.
• The combined annual turnover of SMEs was £1.8 trillion, 47% of all private sector turnover in the UK.