The 2016 HAMISH_MCTAVISH Predictions Thread

Thrugelmir

Marktheshark wrote: »

business can not obtain finance, low interest rates are useless if banks will not lend, it is simply not worth the banks effort to lend at these rates.

Plenty of credit lines available for those that require it and whose business warrants it.

If banks didn't lend money they'd go out of business.

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

But of course if the BOE are forced into rate rises to counter the Sterling crisis (devalued to a 31 year low today) and impending inflation thanks to the cost of imports shooting up, that'll choke off any economic benefits from devaluation....

I suspect there will be some eye watering price rises in consumer goods over the next year or two.

are you saying that
devaluing a currency has
-no overall effect
-a positive overall effect
-a negative overal effect

or does it depend solely on whether you support remain or exit?

ging84

I think it must be about time this thread was resurrected
All i can says is, brexit, trump, southern rail were all covered by my prediction.

I'm just a little disappointed i didn't predict that Vladimir Putin would rig the US election, because it's exactly the sort of thing i would say.

kinger101

With little over a week to go, just thought I'd give this one a bumpity bump.

michaels

I love it - almost everyone's predictions are mostly vague enough to be right....

...with the minor exceptions of Brexit and Trump

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Well alrighty then.....

Not as good as previous years but time for the scorecard....

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

As for the predictions...

1. House prices will rise. Indices will range from +4 to +9%. This is a similar rate of growth to last year.

Correct.

2. FTB numbers will increase, potentially aided by new schemes or the expansion of existing ones as the government continue to try and restore normal functioning to the still dysfunctional mortgage and house building markets.

Also correct....

First-time buyer sales have reached their highest level for over a decade and a half

3. Inflation will remain in a range between 0% and 1% for most of the year.

Correct

4. Unemployment will fall to below 5% - wages will continue to rise in real terms at a similar rate to last year.

Correct.

5. Interest rates will end the year at or below 1%

Correct.

- but we will see the first rise this year.

Nope.

The economic uncertainty following the Brexit vote cancelled any prospect of rate rises and the BOE had to lower them instead.

6. House building will not increase at anywhere near the rates the government has promised or the country needs to alleviate the housing crisis.

Correct

Given the discouragement to BTL investment it may even fall.

Housebuilder Berkeley has reported a 20% slump in reservations for its properties, blaming higher stamp duty for landlords and Brexit uncertainty.

7. Rents will continue to increase and reach another new record high.

Correct.

the average rent has hit a record high of £881 per month,

8. The north will see increasing HPI as the gap to London/SE starts to close

Correct.

North beats South as UK house price growth divide narrows

9. Aberdeen house prices will continue to soften a bit as they have done over the last year.

Also correct.

Latest ROS data has Aberdeen down about 7% on the same time last year.

For perspective:

Oct 2016 = £204,000

Oct 2007 = £180,000

10. Economic growth will continue with GDP +2.0% for the year

Correct.

11. The SNP will win the Scottish elections with a landslide vote at constituency level.

Correct

12. If there is a referendum this year on Europe the UK will vote to stay in.

Ouch....

Nope. Got that one wrong.

13. The Scottish Labour party will end the year with a different leader.

Surprisingly, Dugdale is still leader, so that one's also wrong.

14. DAESH will get pushed out of most/all of the ground they hold in Iraq and some of the ground they hold in Syria - they will compensate by becoming more active elsewhere - both with additional terror attacks in the West and in conflict areas such as Afghanistan

Correct on all parts there. Daesh losing huge amounts of territory in the middle east and increasing attacks in Europe.

Actually not that bad......

I'll add the Trump win in as another wrong un from the later post.

Conrad

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Well alrighty then.....

Not as good as previous years but time for the scorecard....

Pretty good Hamish.


I recently found site agents saying things were booming but I'm ever more doubtful as buy to let funding is out of the reach of so many now. I was considering a flat that fitted fine on the pre-tax rise criteria but now I'd have to put down 35% instead of 25% and the stamp duty bill is huge.


Talking to others it seems the buy to let mortgage market has ground to a stand still

Conrad

My main prediction going forwards is the UK will prosper very nicely, there will be no meaningful Brexit downside.
I don't think Banks will move en-mass into the EU, not to any meaningful extent.


US will boom under Trump for obvious reasons.

BobQ

Conrad wrote: »

My main prediction going forwards is the UK will prosper very nicely, there will be no meaningful Brexit downside.
I don't think Banks will move en-mass into the EU, not to any meaningful extent.


US will boom under Trump for obvious reasons.

Yes a good time to invest in US defence technology given Trump's recent tweet.

I hope you are right about the downsides of Brexit, but invite you to define "meaningful" in this context?

Do you think it will be good for everyone or just London and SE? Or just those with wealth?

Jason74

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I suspect there will be some eye watering price rises in consumer goods over the next year or two.

Actually, it is already happening in some quartets. For example, if you wanted to buy an Asian made piano (the two best known mid range piano makers are both Japanese, and most of the best "budget" instruments are made in China or Indonesia), the cost has gone up by some 25℅ since the vote.

Now of course, the price of pianos is hardly in itself indicative of how the economy is doing, but it's perhaps a good example how if you look hard enough, the impact of the vote is already quietly manifesting itself in the real world.