The 2016 HAMISH_MCTAVISH Predictions Thread

Graham_Devon

michaels wrote: »

Hmm - we have the world bank and the chancellor warning about downside economic risks and yet no one on this board seems to be predicting a recession or even much of a slow down in growth.

:wave:

Hello

To be honest, I don't predict anything on here any longer.

A) It's more a finger in the wind guess
Anything you get wrong is used later on
C) It's simply too difficult. All it takes is yet another dose of specifically targetted stimulus and what should happen is avoided for a bit again.

Another point to note is that theres no longer many left on here that aren't in the more positive camp. Discussion Time at the bottom of this board seems to manage a more split discussion on the economy and houses.

Lets face up to the fact for once that nothing is fixed.

The start of this year for example is mired with china and the stockmarket over there. Were back to the same point we were at 3 months ago. We'll get another "paper over the cracks" stimulus measure and find that were back to talking about Greece again or the US debt ceiling.

The same problems just keep appearing. This whole "recovery" will continue until the cracks can no longer be stitched together.

What we don't know is which crack will blow or when it will be.

wotsthat

I remain fairly positive. I'm expecting 2016 to be a bit of a grind (like the last two years TBH) but am hopeful that'll I'll meet most of my personal and financial targets.

A recession would be most unwelcome (although I sailed through the last one) but I've spent the last few years 'making hay whilst the sun shines', haven't been 'kicking the can' or 'racing to the bottom', and when I decorated I specifically avoided 'papering over the cracks'.

vivatifosi

michaels wrote: »

Hmm - we have the world bank and the chancellor warning about downside economic risks and yet no one on this board seems to be predicting a recession or even much of a slow down in growth. Perhaps the next two years will be more 'interesting' than most seem to expect?

Is there a lot of scope for monetary or fiscal stimulus should that prove necessary?!

Good question. I think that there is a likelihood of some softening, poss a recession, we are at that point in cycle again. However for me the big all economic bets are off issues are 1) brexit and 2) some form of geo-political shock. Both are scarily possible.

Generali

For the UK economy, full steam ahead I reckon. I would be entirely unsurprised to see growth for 2016 to clock in at 3% or even more.

People misunderestimate the impact of the fall in the oil price IMHO. Either the oil price is going to rise or GDP is going to go gangbusters in 2016.

mayonnaise

vivatifosi wrote: »

However for me the big all economic bets are off issues are 1) brexit and 2) some form of geo-political shock. Both are scarily possible.

Yes, a looming brexit makes it difficult for me to participate in Hamish's yearly thread.
If we stay in, I can see decent growth and positive economic indicators all around.
If we vote for isolation, I'll be joining Graham and the rest of the MSE doom-and-gloom club.

Generali

mayonnaise wrote: »

Yes, a looming brexit makes it difficult for me to participate in Hamish's yearly thread.
If we stay in, I can see decent growth and positive economic indicators all around.
If we vote for isolation, I'll be joining Graham and the rest of the MSE doom-and-gloom club.

Brexit is highly unlikely. TBH I suspect the bigger risk is Mr Corbyn.

People get to the ballot box and hover. Then they vote for the status quo.

purch

Generali wrote: »

TBH I suspect the bigger risk is Mr Corbyn.

He'll be gone by December.

purch

mayonnaise wrote: »

Yes, looming brexit

At some stage this year Merkel will come to the realisation that the UK's stance is actually pretty reasonable, and it will be in her eltoral interests to help push through most of the reforms we are demanding.

danothy

Generali wrote: »

For the UK economy, full steam ahead I reckon. I would be entirely unsurprised to see growth for 2016 to clock in at 3% or even more.

People misunderestimate the impact of the fall in the oil price IMHO. Either the oil price is going to rise or GDP is going to go gangbusters in 2016.

Are you sure they're not just disirregarding the impact of the fall in the oil price?

michaels

I see 5 year mortgages are now even cheaper (Hsbc 1.99%) and I have just had the rates cut on all my savings accounts - doesn't seem like the markets are pricing in big increases in the base rate in my experience.