The 2016 HAMISH_MCTAVISH Predictions Thread

padington

Generali wrote: »

Never. This has never been done before, successfully or otherwise. There is no template of how they should act.

I always maintained that the hard bit would be raising rates.

Hence why interest rates won't get raised much in my opinion, there is no great need. The world is more intwined than ever, more America causes problems for others, more they cause problems for themselves.

cells

1. London house prices up 10% while rEngland&Wales up 5%

2. Low inflation low wage rises

3. Unemployment below 5%

4. Population increase by record 600,000

5. 50 million homes built (worldwide) and to which the UK will be a rounding error

6. Despite all the green stuff fossil fuel use will be higher globally

7. First reusable first stage of a rocket sent back up



Longer term predictions (within 10 years)

Global internet by low orbit satellite

Self drive cars

Battery tech affordable in HGVs/Trains/Buses/Taxis and maybe cars

Limit of more transistors per space of computer chips reached

Capable cheap 3d cameras (which will allow computer programs to navigate the real world eg in self drive cars but potentially also other things like drones and weapons)

Maned mission to moon to take a few selfies (and maybe some rocks)

ging84

Chaos

that is my only prediction for 2016

wotsthat

Did anyone make any FTSE100 predictions?

2014 - down 3%
2015 - down 5%

We've not seen 3 down years since 2000/1/2.

BobQ

cells wrote: »

Self drive cars

I thought all cars were self drive already:)


How about 3D printing provides solution to flood defences

CLAPTON

BobQ wrote: »

So when was the last time that the BOE had to judge how quickly to raise rates from such a low base without choking recovery or creating inflation?

I thought the objective of increasing interest rates was to constrain inflation via constraining growth.

Generali

CLAPTON wrote: »

I thought the objective of increasing interest rates was to constrain inflation via constraining growth.

It depends who you ask. Keynesians would agree. Monetarists would say it's to constrain the growth in the money supply by reducing lending.

MMTers would definitely have a bunch of opinions but they could be almost anything.

purch

Generali wrote: »

That points to the need to increase rates to me.

Now, personally I would not be shocked if the Fed actually lowers rates at some point in 2016.

From what level is the question of course.

anchovypizza

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Broadly a year of continued economic growth.

In most ways the effects of the 2008 recession and financial crisis are now behind us and the recovery is complete.

The big exception is that new house building and mortgage lending remain constrained but more on that later.

As for the predictions...

1. House prices will rise. Indices will range from +4 to +9%. This is a similar rate of growth to last year.

2. FTB numbers will increase, potentially aided by new schemes or the expansion of existing ones as the government continue to try and restore normal functioning to the still dysfunctional mortgage and house building markets.

3. Inflation will remain in a range between 0% and 1% for most of the year.

4. Unemployment will fall to below 5% - wages will continue to rise in real terms at a similar rate to last year.

5. Interest rates will end the year at or below 1% - but we will see the first rise this year.

6. House building will not increase at anywhere near the rates the government has promised or the country needs to alleviate the housing crisis. Given the discouragement to BTL investment it may even fall.

7. Rents will continue to increase and reach another new record high.

8. The north will see increasing HPI as the gap to London/SE starts to close

9. Aberdeen house prices will continue to soften a bit as they have done over the last year.

10. Economic growth will continue with GDP +2.0% for the year

Politics:

11. The SNP will win the Scottish elections with a landslide vote at constituency level.

12. If there is a referendum this year on Europe the UK will vote to stay in.

13. The Scottish Labour party will end the year with a different leader.

14. DAESH will get pushed out of most/all of the ground they hold in Iraq and some of the ground they hold in Syria - they will compensate by becoming more active elsewhere - both with additional terror attacks in the West and in conflict areas such as Afghanistan

Feel free to add your own predictions here, and we'll review once again in 12 months.

In all probability most of your predictions are probably all pretty close to what I think they will be in a stable appearing economy. They are not really a dozen or so predictions for 2016, they are just a statement of the bleedin obvious if the plates can be kept turning for another year, and who is to say they won't. .

I can really only make one prediction of the two things that really matter or could happen.

1. Nothing alarming, so your "predictions" remain correct or close

2. An event occurs in the UK or around the world

Now with number 2(the event) which is now a dozen or so worrying things where just one collapsing could then effect the other 11 sending all your predictions into room 101.

A teaser already this year is China, if we get through that we then have the EU

michaels

Hmm - we have the world bank and the chancellor warning about downside economic risks and yet no one on this board seems to be predicting a recession or even much of a slow down in growth. Perhaps the next two years will be more 'interesting' than most seem to expect?

Is there a lot of scope for monetary or fiscal stimulus should that prove necessary?!