The 2016 HAMISH_MCTAVISH Predictions Thread

BobQ

purch wrote: »

I'm not sure you "get" this prediction lark Bobby.

There are rules to follow?:)

I had assumed that some people use judgement but maybe yours are just guesswork:)

wotsthat

I don't agree the recovery is complete or guaranteed but do see another year of growth. I much preferred the crash to the recovery and expect the gains of 2016 to be much like those of 2014 and 2015 - grinding.

1. House prices will rise. Less than 2015. Londoners will remain mad for it but hopefully they'll remain cheap everywhere else.

2. FTB numbers will increase. A certainty I think - rental options will fall.

3. Inflation static and <1% all year.

4. Unemployment static and a year of above inflation pay rises (just).

5. Interest rates. Will remain ultra-low - by the end of 2016 I'll be embarrassed to be 2 years into a 5 year fix taken out because I tried to decipher the tea leaves leaving Dr. Carney's mouth.

6. Oil. If anything has confirmed my bias that trying to predict things is nothing but a bit of fun. Hardly anyone predicted we'd see $40 oil in 2015 and I'd suggest those that did were simply confirming the biases of their paid audience. This hasn't stopped the same (wrong) people being confident that oil will recover, fall more or stay the same for ever.

I'll predict $92 oil by the year end for the only reason that it's an outlier so if it happens Bloomberg will pay me to get up early in the mornings to make further guesses.

7. Labour under Corbyn will oust the Tories of 1998 as the worst opposition party the UK has ever seen. I hope I'm very very wrong but as I predicted they wouldn't vote Corbyn in and then predicted he'd be gone by Christmas I might well be.

8. There will be complaints about the unbalanced economy. I'll continue to wonder what that means and wonder why I should care.

9. Crashy Time says the time to sell is 'NOW' periodically throughout 2016, 2017... Eventually when he's 80 in 2046 there's a crash and he declares victory as he buys into prices not seen since 2043 and is subsequently banned from HPC.

10. Despite the improving economy people will continue to work at Sports Direct - the hand wringers will blame this complete lack of ambition on the owners and the government.

11. Drugs in sport will really blow up in 2016. The media will be all over it but will be disbelieving that football could be affected. FIFA's anti-corruption probes will be studied in the future as textbook examples of diversionary tactics. McDonalds and Coke will sponsor the years main sporting events with the irony being lost on most.

11. Graham_Devon will continue complaining that despite us being one of the most successful nations on the planet too many people have to take their good luck without a coating of fondant icing.

Generali

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Broadly a year of continued economic growth.

In most ways the effects of the 2008 recession and financial crisis are now behind us and the recovery is complete.

The big exception is that new house building and mortgage lending remain constrained but more on that later.

As for the predictions...

1. House prices will rise. Indices will range from +4 to +9%. This is a similar rate of growth to last year.

2. FTB numbers will increase, potentially aided by new schemes or the expansion of existing ones as the government continue to try and restore normal functioning to the still dysfunctional mortgage and house building markets.

3. Inflation will remain in a range between 0% and 1% for most of the year.

4. Unemployment will fall to below 5% - wages will continue to rise in real terms at a similar rate to last year.

5. Interest rates will end the year at or below 1% - but we will see the first rise this year.

6. House building will not increase at anywhere near the rates the government has promised or the country needs to alleviate the housing crisis. Given the discouragement to BTL investment it may even fall.

7. Rents will continue to increase and reach another new record high.

8. The north will see increasing HPI as the gap to London/SE starts to close

9. Aberdeen house prices will continue to soften a bit as they have done over the last year.

10. Economic growth will continue with GDP +2.0% for the year

Politics:

11. The SNP will win the Scottish elections with a landslide vote at constituency level.

12. If there is a referendum this year on Europe the UK will vote to stay in.

13. The Scottish Labour party will end the year with a different leader.

14. DAESH will get pushed out of most/all of the ground they hold in Iraq and some of the ground they hold in Syria - they will compensate by becoming more active elsewhere - both with additional terror attacks in the West and in conflict areas such as Afghanistan

Feel free to add your own predictions here, and we'll review once again in 12 months.

Yup, increasing economic growth in the US and UK dragging the EZ along in its wake. Not such good times for the BRICs economies but not so bad as to drag the rest of the world down. India might do okay though. Lower oil prices should be very positive for India.

So:

1. House prices. London moderates a bit in the face of increasing Fed rates and the coming hit on BTL. On the averages, the rest of the UK steps up to keep HPI at 5% above CPI roughly.

2. FTBs. Not their year but their time will come soon.

3. Inflation low but rising slowly. Wage inflation should be strongly positive.

4. Unemployment to end the year at c. 5%. Employment to hit emphatic highs in both absolute numbers and a proportion of the adult population driven by rising retirement ages and the attractiveness of work with an increasing minimum wage and falling welfare payments (comparatively).

5. BoE base rate c. 1%

6. House building will increase outside London, decrease inside London.

7. Yup, rents up.

8. Yup. HPI decreases gap between London and the rest of the country.

9. No idea. Oil prices can't be great for Aberdeen,

10. GDP increases accelerate.

11. Yeah. Obvs.

12. I suspect so. The only caveat is the same one about the Scottish one which is that the pollsters have absolutely no way to understand how to weight the polls.

13. Meh.

14. Yup. Permanent war.

My own:

15. Aussie PM gets to call an early election (aka a 'double dissolution') due to Labor and the Greens voting down a new Trade Union Bill. Wins easily

16. Oil price below $40 for most of the year. Maybe below $30. Biiiig problems to (some) (mid-tier?) US banks as a result.

17. High yield debt and especially emerging market debt comes crashing down.

18. Left field 1: Synthetic ETF crisis

19. Left field 2: Brown coal market crisis

Generali

I'll have a proper look at 2015 in a bit but on the face of it I did okay. Pleased with my oil call and I'm hotter on it this year. The spigots will be wide open this year as everyone tries to show they have the deepest pockets. Ditto iron ore and perhaps coal. Short of the year might be Glencore. A great outside bet is that they don't see the year out solvent.

purch

BobQ wrote: »

I had assumed that some people use judgement

:rotfl:

Yeah, sure.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

BobQ wrote: »

There are rules to follow?:)

Yes.

Stand at least 4 metres away from the dartboard that has all the options on it.

You're then only allowed 12 darts to forecast the whole year....:D

Generali

Ah yes, forgot to add, expect the Fed to raise quite fast from here and perhaps start to unwind QE. They have record reverse repo balances (where the Fed drains cash from financial markets by borrowing it from banks to sit idle rather than the banks lending it out). That points to the need to increase rates to me.

vivatifosi

House Prices will soften but not fall.

We will hear more about families being evicted from ASTs and the corresponding impact on social housing. It's already a big issue in my area and is spreading. In other words, rental supply and affordability as big issues, in the SE at least.

Uncertainty re Brexit will continue to be priced into exchange rate, meaning my holidays in the US are more expensive (b*gger).

Car emissions issue will widen beyond VAG and then beyond emissions to reported mileage stats. Over time, I think this will lead to ads on tv about being missold cars and that will be the new compo issue.

Clinton will win US election due to country coming to its senses and realising Trump is a poor choice as leader of the free world. Talk on here may revolve over whether the shape shifting lizards that rule the world can actually be female and whether that in turn will lead to a house price collapse in Aberdeen.

There won't be a house price collapse in Aberdeen.

Schengen under pressure as some countries reinstate borders.

Taliban will merge with ISIS.

Britain will flood again and people will continue to call for diversion of the aid budget.

GDP UK may stumble a little, though not fall, due to brexit fears.

We won't brexit and Greece will still be in Euro.

BobQ

Generali wrote: »

Ah yes, forgot to add, expect the Fed to raise quite fast from here and perhaps start to unwind QE. They have record reverse repo balances (where the Fed drains cash from financial markets by borrowing it from banks to sit idle rather than the banks lending it out). That points to the need to increase rates to me.

So when was the last time that the BOE had to judge how quickly to raise rates from such a low base without choking recovery or creating inflation?

Generali

BobQ wrote: »

So when was the last time that the BOE had to judge how quickly to raise rates from such a low base without choking recovery or creating inflation?

Never. This has never been done before, successfully or otherwise. There is no template of how they should act.

I always maintained that the hard bit would be raising rates.