The 2016 HAMISH_MCTAVISH Predictions Thread

Running_Horse

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

5. Interest rates will end the year at or below 1% - but we will see the first rise this year.

12. If there is a referendum this year on Europe the UK will vote to stay in.

Oh dear, never mind.

michaels

Running_Horse wrote: »

Oh dear, never mind.

Although I was thinking today with more strong economy numbers (manufacturing this time) and GBP continuing to fall that the next move in rates is likely to be up rather than down and perhaps sooner than we might expect. I guess it all depends on the housing market though.

Thrugelmir

purch wrote: »

He'll be gone by December.

Seems somewhat unlikely. Unless there's an unforeseen event.

padington

Generali wrote: »

Brexit is highly unlikely. TBH I suspect the bigger risk is Mr Corbyn.

People get to the ballot box and hover. Then they vote for the status quo.

Not always huh ?

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

Running_Horse wrote: »

Oh dear, never mind.

I think they where very safe bets. Few could predict the number of racist xenophobes in Britain.

If it wasn't for Brexit, prediction number 5 would likely have been correct. Oh well here's to even lower interest rates :beer:

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

I think they where very safe bets. Few could predict the number of racist xenophobes in Britain.

Yep.

That surprised even me.

If it wasn't for Brexit, prediction number 5 would likely have been correct.

Also true.

But a lot of the others are looking pretty good....

On track for 10 out of 14 I'd say at the moment.

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Yep.

That surprised even me.



Also true.

But a lot of the others are looking pretty good....

On track for 10 out of 14 I'd say at the moment.

Prediction 5 was half right so give yourself an extra .5

I'm due to renew my deal early next year and interst rates are looking amazing compared to my last fix 2 years ago. Even the fees have been reduced.

Mortgagefreeman

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

Prediction 5 was half right so give yourself an extra .5

.

Unfortunately question 12. Was worth more than all the others put together, so he loses 15

michaels

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Yep.

That surprised even me.



Also true.

But a lot of the others are looking pretty good....

On track for 10 out of 14 I'd say at the moment.

Surely though we need to consider the counterfactual - would the predictions have been correct had the brexit vote gone the way you expected?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

michaels wrote: »

Surely though we need to consider the counterfactual - would the predictions have been correct had the brexit vote gone the way you expected?

Heh - good point.

The base rates thing is interesting though.

I do think that without the uncertainty of Brexit we'd have seen rates rising this year as the economy really took off into the next business cycle and monetary policy started to normalise.

Whereas now there's all sorts of additional emergency monetary measures in place and it looks very much like Hammond will be forced to ease fiscal spending restraint as well.

It's not easy to see a set of circumstances where that uncertainty doesn't continue to weigh on the economy for several years now - meaning little prospect of meaningful rate rises and a deferred recovery at best - or another recession if negotiations go badly.

Either way - a wasted few years looks likely...