The 2016 HAMISH_MCTAVISH Predictions Thread

wotsthat

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I do think that without the uncertainty of Brexit we'd have seen rates rising this year as the economy really took off into the next business cycle and monetary policy started to normalise.

The way some Brexiteers go on there might still be rate rises this year to ensure the booming economy doesn't overheat

CLAPTON

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Heh - good point.

The base rates thing is interesting though.

I do think that without the uncertainty of Brexit we'd have seen rates rising this year as the economy really took off into the next business cycle and monetary policy started to normalise.

Whereas now there's all sorts of additional emergency monetary measures in place and it looks very much like Hammond will be forced to ease fiscal spending restraint as well.

It's not easy to see a set of circumstances where that uncertainty doesn't continue to weigh on the economy for several years now - meaning little prospect of meaningful rate rises and a deferred recovery at best - or another recession if negotiations go badly.

Either way - a wasted few years looks likely...

agreed
we should have left the EU in 2007 and avoided the wasted years of low interest rates

Conrad

We have super low interest rates across the globe to be fair, and if the entire establishment hadn't petrified people there would have been no need for any fiscal adjustments. Sentiment is the biggest factor.


All hysterics of course.

Conrad

Interesting prediction here;l
Isabelle Fraser 4 October 2016 • 12:01am

Almost 1.8m new rental homes are needed by 2025 to keep up with current demand, according to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics).


New figures reveal that 86pc of landlords have no plans to increase their rental portfolios this year. Rics has forecast that this trend will continue for the next five years, causing a shortfall in private rented sector homes.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/10/03/get-building-to-avoid-18m-shortfall-of-rented-homes-by-2025-says/

michaels

Generali wrote: »

I'll have a proper look at 2015 in a bit but on the face of it I did okay. Pleased with my oil call and I'm hotter on it this year. The spigots will be wide open this year as everyone tries to show they have the deepest pockets. Ditto iron ore and perhaps coal. Short of the year might be Glencore. A great outside bet is that they don't see the year out solvent.

How is the Glencore short going?! Lucky you are not a stock picker

Marktheshark

wotsthat wrote: »

The way some Brexiteers go on there might still be rate rises this year to ensure the booming economy doesn't overheat

There will be no choice, the boom has already started, trade is booming and confidence is strong.
The economy will have to be cooled and interest rates will rise to do so.
The downside is BTL landlords who are up to their eyeballs in debt are going to regret the idea.

michaels

Marktheshark wrote: »

There will be no choice, the boom has already started, trade is booming and confidence is strong.
The economy will have to be cooled and interest rates will rise to do so.
The downside is BTL landlords who are up to their eyeballs in debt are going to regret the idea.

I have to say, if you just look at the numbers (and ignore the Brexit vote) you would see GBP down sharply, the economy picking up quickly after a slow Q2, housing market still rising, employment up, unemployment low and possibly signs that inflation will start to feed through. All signals that interest rates should rise.

Marktheshark

A rise will stimulate the economy, business can not obtain finance, low interest rates are useless if banks will not lend, it is simply not worth the banks effort to lend at these rates.

Conrad

Marktheshark wrote: »

The downside is BTL landlords who are up to their eyeballs in debt are going to regret the idea.

That's the oldest line in the book - so many said this prior to 2008 and that huge numbers of LL's would end up forced sellers. Never happens - the majority are smart and know how to manage their affairs

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

michaels wrote: »

I have to say, if you just look at the numbers (and ignore the Brexit vote) you would see GBP down sharply, the economy picking up quickly after a slow Q2, housing market still rising, employment up, unemployment low and possibly signs that inflation will start to feed through. All signals that interest rates should rise.

But of course if the BOE are forced into rate rises to counter the Sterling crisis (devalued to a 31 year low today) and impending inflation thanks to the cost of imports shooting up, that'll choke off any economic benefits from devaluation....

I suspect there will be some eye watering price rises in consumer goods over the next year or two.