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The 2016 HAMISH_MCTAVISH Predictions Thread
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HAMISH_MCTAVISH
Posts: 28,592 Forumite
Broadly a year of continued economic growth.
In most ways the effects of the 2008 recession and financial crisis are now behind us and the recovery is complete.
The big exception is that new house building and mortgage lending remain constrained but more on that later.
As for the predictions...
1. House prices will rise. Indices will range from +4 to +9%. This is a similar rate of growth to last year.
2. FTB numbers will increase, potentially aided by new schemes or the expansion of existing ones as the government continue to try and restore normal functioning to the still dysfunctional mortgage and house building markets.
3. Inflation will remain in a range between 0% and 1% for most of the year.
4. Unemployment will fall to below 5% - wages will continue to rise in real terms at a similar rate to last year.
5. Interest rates will end the year at or below 1% - but we will see the first rise this year.
6. House building will not increase at anywhere near the rates the government has promised or the country needs to alleviate the housing crisis. Given the discouragement to BTL investment it may even fall.
7. Rents will continue to increase and reach another new record high.
8. The north will see increasing HPI as the gap to London/SE starts to close
9. Aberdeen house prices will continue to soften a bit as they have done over the last year.
10. Economic growth will continue with GDP +2.0% for the year
Politics:
11. The SNP will win the Scottish elections with a landslide vote at constituency level.
12. If there is a referendum this year on Europe the UK will vote to stay in.
13. The Scottish Labour party will end the year with a different leader.
14. DAESH will get pushed out of most/all of the ground they hold in Iraq and some of the ground they hold in Syria - they will compensate by becoming more active elsewhere - both with additional terror attacks in the West and in conflict areas such as Afghanistan
Feel free to add your own predictions here, and we'll review once again in 12 months.
In most ways the effects of the 2008 recession and financial crisis are now behind us and the recovery is complete.
The big exception is that new house building and mortgage lending remain constrained but more on that later.
As for the predictions...
1. House prices will rise. Indices will range from +4 to +9%. This is a similar rate of growth to last year.
2. FTB numbers will increase, potentially aided by new schemes or the expansion of existing ones as the government continue to try and restore normal functioning to the still dysfunctional mortgage and house building markets.
3. Inflation will remain in a range between 0% and 1% for most of the year.
4. Unemployment will fall to below 5% - wages will continue to rise in real terms at a similar rate to last year.
5. Interest rates will end the year at or below 1% - but we will see the first rise this year.
6. House building will not increase at anywhere near the rates the government has promised or the country needs to alleviate the housing crisis. Given the discouragement to BTL investment it may even fall.
7. Rents will continue to increase and reach another new record high.
8. The north will see increasing HPI as the gap to London/SE starts to close
9. Aberdeen house prices will continue to soften a bit as they have done over the last year.
10. Economic growth will continue with GDP +2.0% for the year
Politics:
11. The SNP will win the Scottish elections with a landslide vote at constituency level.
12. If there is a referendum this year on Europe the UK will vote to stay in.
13. The Scottish Labour party will end the year with a different leader.
14. DAESH will get pushed out of most/all of the ground they hold in Iraq and some of the ground they hold in Syria - they will compensate by becoming more active elsewhere - both with additional terror attacks in the West and in conflict areas such as Afghanistan
Feel free to add your own predictions here, and we'll review once again in 12 months.
“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”
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Comments
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Care to add what happens in November 2016 in the USA?"Real knowledge is to know the extent of one's ignorance" - Confucius0
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Care to add what happens in November 2016 in the USA?
Trump will not become president.
Still a long way to go and the US primaries love to throw up surprises, but if I had to guess the race will be Clinton against Rubio or Cruz, and Clinton will win*.
ETA: For some more detail.... On the Democratic side the current favourites are Sanders and Clinton, but Clinton is way ahead of Sanders in polling and betting odds. The fact that the Dems primary is such a one horse race at the moment is actually hurting them with lack of airtime and media coverage, but helping Hillary grow a huge campaign finance war-chest that she isn't needing to spend in the primaries. Barring an outbreak of complete grass roots insanity (as happened here with Corbyn) Clinton will be the Democrat contender.
On the Republican side Rubio and Cruz lead Trump in the betting odds, while Trump leads in the polls. Much more to play for here and the race is much tighter. All three are by British standards completely mental.... Way to the right of Cameron and the Tories.... But Rubio is just about electable as President if he swings left again after the primaries, Cruz a bit less so, Trump not at all...
Interesting race.
*Subject to Obama not doing anything too politically stupid this year re gun control. He is likely to try and do something administratively that bypasses congress, if it's not too draconian, they'll get away with it. If it bites too deep and swing voters see it as a 'loss of freedom' then it'll hurt Clinton's campaign.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Trump will not become president.
Still a long way to go and the US primaries love to throw up surprises, but if I had to guess the race will be Clinton against Rubio or Cruz, and Clinton will win*.
*Subject to Obama not doing anything too politically stupid this year re gun control. He is likely to try and do something administratively that bypasses congress, if it's not too draconian, they'll get away with it. If it bites too deep and swing voters see it as a 'loss of freedom' then it'll hurt Clinton's campaign.
I still think there is a good chance Trump will win the primaries, though an early lead isn't necessarily good as Howard Dean found out in 2004. But the difference is when Dean started frothing at the mouth, it ended his campaign. The crazier Trump gets, the more support he seems to get.
It's probably good news for the Democrats if Trump does win, as I don't think he can take California or Texas without the hispanic vote."Real knowledge is to know the extent of one's ignorance" - Confucius0 -
I still think there is a good chance Trump will win the primaries, though an early lead isn't necessarily good as Howard Dean found out in 2004. But the difference is when Dean started frothing at the mouth, it ended his campaign. The crazier Trump gets, the more support he seems to get.
It's probably good news for the Democrats if Trump does win, as I don't think he can take California or Texas without the hispanic vote.
Yep, we cross posted with my edit for more detail, but that's about right.
There are interesting parallels between the current state of the Republicans with their Tea Party extremists and the current state of UK politics with both UKIP and the hard left faction in Labour that put Corbyn into power.
They all have enough weight to change outcomes with candidates and policy direction, but not to win national elections for their party, and in fact they end up becoming spoilers that cost elections rather than winning them.
Both Rubio and Cruz are the from the 'new wave' of younger candidates that like to portray themselves as not being 'establishment' candidates like Jed Bush.
I should mention that the establishment candidates may yet stage a turnaround, despite trailing hugely in the polls, probably not Bush but Chris Christie appears to be picking up steam for example.
As I said it's an interesting race.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Tim Peake is KnightedFew people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are incapable of forming such opinions.0
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Successful IS cyber attack on critical UK infrastructure
EU Referendum negotiations are inconclusive and tensions within the Conservative Party result in open divisions or resignations in the cabinet.
The Referendum polling converges towards a narrow victory for the IN campaign, leading to slowing of UK economic growth as major economic decisions are delayed by the uncertainties.Few people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are incapable of forming such opinions.0 -
I think a theme of 2016 will be continued mass immigration into the EU bloc from the Middle East and North Africa. The EU will completely fail to agree a common approach to deal with the situation leading to a serious political crisis. I am not sure what the result will be but the numbers of migrants are not going to fall and I can't see how Germany can just soak them all up.0
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Base Rate will be 1% at the end of 2016.
Fed Funds target will be 1-1 1/4%
Inflation will remain low, CPI will not exceed +0.5 at any stage during the year.
Brent Crude will end the year trading above $60 but will hit $25 en route.
GBP/EUR will be in range 1.27/1.37
Angela Merkel will become a lame duck as the right wing anti-EU parties gain traction and it becomes clear the CDU cannot hope to form the next German government.
US Presidential race will be between Martin O'Malley & Mario Rubio :eek:
There will not be an EU referendum on UK membership in 2016
Neither Jezza Corbyn or Nigel Farage will still be Party Leaders by December 2016
Arsenal will win the Premier League, Stoke City the League Cup, Manchester Utd the FA Cup & Europa League and Chelsea the Champions League.
England will reach the Final of the Euro Champs losing to Germany.
Alabama will win the FBS Championship game against Clemson, the Arizona Cardinals will win Superbowl 50 & the New York Mets will win the World Series.'In nature, there are neither rewards nor punishments - there are Consequences.'0 -
chewmylegoff wrote: »I think a theme of 2016 will be continued mass immigration into the EU bloc from the Middle East and North Africa. The EU will completely fail to agree a common approach to deal with the situation leading to a serious political crisis. I am not sure what the result will be but the numbers of migrants are not going to fall and I can't see how Germany can just soak them all up.
I agree.
Maybe this will result in the final collapse of the Schengen Agreement, perhaps replaced by agreements on smaller common border zones (like the UK & Ireland already have).Few people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are incapable of forming such opinions.0 -
Base Rate will be 1% at the end of 2016.
Fed Funds target will be 1-1 1/4%
Inflation will remain low, CPI will not exceed +0.5 at any stage during the year.
Brent Crude will end the year trading above $60 but will hit $25 en route.
GBP/EUR will be in range 1.27/1.37
Angela Merkel will become a lame duck as the right wing anti-EU parties gain traction and it becomes clear the CDU cannot hope to form the next German government.
US Presidential race will be between Martin O'Malley & Mario Rubio :eek:
There will not be an EU referendum on UK membership in 2016
Neither Jezza Corbyn or Nigel Farage will still be Party Leaders by December 2016
Arsenal will win the Premier League, Stoke City the League Cup, Manchester Utd the FA Cup & Europa League and Chelsea the Champions League.
England will reach the Final of the Euro Champs losing to Germany.
Alabama will win the FBS Championship game against Clemson, the Arizona Cardinals will win Superbowl 50 & the New York Mets will win the World Series.
...On penalties.0
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