Who will win the UK election ?

Thrugelmir

padington wrote: »

Farage to possibly come third in his.

UKIP is polling well so far. Given their low key campaign. Saw nothing of them around here.

kabayiri

Thrugelmir wrote: »

UKIP is polling well so far. Given their low key campaign. Saw nothing of them around here.

Indeed, could it be an election for the national(ists) North and South of the border?

mrginge

antrobus wrote: »

YouGov have apparently issued their own 'exit poll' prediction. Naturally very different;

Conservatives: 284 seats
Labour: 263
Lib Dems: 31
SNP: 48
UKIP: 2
Plaid Cymru: 3
Greens: 1

Still, 284 would be at the 'top end' of Con expectations.

It would be worth noting that this is not an exit poll. To do an exit poll you need a whole army of field agents out there, accosting voters as they leave polling stations. YouGov haven't got any field agents, they only do online polling, so they must have done a 'Have you voted today?' online poll sometime during the evening.

Yougov are online.
Older people are less likely to be online.
Older people are more likely to vote conservative.

antrobus

Thrugelmir wrote: »

UKIP is polling well so far. Given their low key campaign. Saw nothing of them around here.

They did well in the 3 Sunderland seats, 20% vote share overall.

kabayiri

It's strange how the SNP could be the Conservative's biggest asset.

There would have been a time when SNP ambition was based on being the strong 2nd in many a Scottish seat. Now look at them.

The stated UKIP ambition is to become the strong 2nd in many Northern seats. So far, this seems to be playing out.

By sheer numbers we just do not have 2 or even 3 major parties. Perhaps it's time for votes to count more.

antrobus

mrginge wrote: »

Yougov are online.
Older people are less likely to be online.
Older people are more likely to vote conservative.

Could be.

Or it could be because the kind of people who do online polls for the equivalent of a lot less than NMW, tend not to vote Conservative.:)

Anyway, I'm off to bed. Which is what I should have done 5 years ago once I knew the results of the exit poll.:)

chewmylegoff

It looks like the exit poll may have been a bit wrong but not in the direction that everyone was presuming - ie it may have understated the number of Tory seats and they could be on for an overall majority.

This could get interesting given the enormous SNP win north of the border. I think a federalised UK is likely.

Lib dems totally wiped out. Clegg should resign but who would take over! People were saying that we had entered a new age of coalition politics. Looks like it may have only taken one term for the electorate to decide they would rather not, thanks all the same.

antrobus

chewmylegoff wrote: »

It looks like the exit poll may have been a bit wrong but not in the direction that everyone was presuming - ie it may have understated the number of Tory seats and they could be on for an overall majority.

This could get interesting given the enormous SNP win north of the border. I think a federalised UK is likely.

Lib dems totally wiped out. Clegg should resign but who would take over! People were saying that we had entered a new age of coalition politics. Looks like it may have only taken one term for the electorate to decide they would rather not, thanks all the same.

The first thing I see this morning is the headline on the BBC - 'Tories closing in on a majority'.

seven-day-weekend

Tories on line to get 329 seats - a small majority :beer:

antrobus

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Balls to lose his seat?

Hardly an endorsement of the Shadow Chancellor.

There is a recount.