Who will win the UK election ?

chewmylegoff

If this is right how much will Labour rue choosing the wrong Milliband now.

antrobus

YouGov have apparently issued their own 'exit poll' prediction. Naturally very different;

Conservatives: 284 seats
Labour: 263
Lib Dems: 31
SNP: 48
UKIP: 2
Plaid Cymru: 3
Greens: 1

Still, 284 would be at the 'top end' of Con expectations.

It would be worth noting that this is not an exit poll. To do an exit poll you need a whole army of field agents out there, accosting voters as they leave polling stations. YouGov haven't got any field agents, they only do online polling, so they must have done a 'Have you voted today?' online poll sometime during the evening.

antrobus

One result in, Houghton and Sunderland South.

LAB hold. UKIP did well. LD lost their deposit.

zagubov

Generali wrote: »

Well the exit polls seem to show I might be right: far more people voting Tory than expected.

It may well be that Lab&SNP couldn't form a majority Government even if they wanted to.

That looks like what's happening. The Shy Tory effect writ large.

The LibDems have evaporated. I remember decades ago when they only had 18 seats (and 9 were in Scotland).

Wonder how much the turnout was.

antrobus wrote: »

More detail from Sky;

The poll put the Conservatives on 316 seats, Labour on 239, the Scottish National Party on 58, the Liberal Democrats on 10 and UKIP on two. The Greens are predicted to win two seats, Plaid Cymru four and others 19, according to the survey.

Lib Dems only 10? Green to take another seat?? SNP win almost everything in Scotland.

I suppose 316+10 = a majority:)

If the LibDems lost 80% of their seats after the last coalition, can they afford another?;)

Generali

zagubov wrote: »

That looks like what's happening. The Shy Tory effect writ large.

The LibDems have evaporated. I remember decades ago when they only had 18 seats (and 9 were in Scotland).

Wonder how much the turnout was.


If the LibDems lost 80% of their seats after the last coalition, can they afford another?;)

Partly shy Tories, partly simply a vote for the status quo. We discussed it WRT the Scottish referendum: many people will simply vote for whatever is going on now.

globalds

Interesting night ahead

padington

Could it be a case of lazy labour voters not actually making it to the polling booth ?

Tories, I imagine, would have been really worried about loosing a lot financially with a labour win but labour voters (I don't think) believed they thought they would lose or gain that much either way.

So more reason to get off your couch and vote for the Tories this time around.

Thrugelmir

Balls to lose his seat?

Hardly an endorsement of the Shadow Chancellor.

padington

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Balls to lose his seat?

Hardly an endorsement of the Shadow Chancellor.

Farage to possibly come third in his.

antrobus

Sunderland Central

Another Lab hold. Another LD lost deposit.