Who will win the UK election ?

IveSeenTheLight

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

despite all the polls contradicting prior to the vote.

With so much error in the polls on the run up, does it effectively make them defunct?

Even the exit poll which was closest, didn't predict a Conservative majority

I've always said, the only poll worth taking note of is the actual vote.

For me anyway, they are always going to have to be taken with a pinch of salt

mayonnaise

They're all a bit peeved off on HPC regarding the election result.
Many will be emigrating, one is counting on a flu pandemic to get the desired crash.

Generali

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Still when you look at seats gained, the Conservatives will have a smaller majority and margin than Labour had in 2005

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I guess my point was that a lot was made before the vote about how the number and percentages of votes equated into seats, often citing that a smaller number / percentage returned a vastly different set of seats. (Compare SNP and UKIP if you will).

A lot was made that SNP did not hold the majority of the electorate in Scotland.

We'll it looks like the SNP have a 50.4% majority of the electorate in Scotland, whilst the Conservatives will govern with a minority electorate vote of only 36.8%

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

My, my, my.

I hold my hands up Generali, you did call it, despite all the polls contradicting prior to the vote.

A very interesting night for UK politics

Some very interesting statistics: -

• Conservatives vote Increase by only 0.7% but look to get an additional 29 seats
• Labour vote increases 1.4%, and they lose 26 seats
• Conservatives will hold a majority of the seats, but only commanded 36.6% of the electorate vote

The next parliament will be very interesting indeed.

Modesty prevents me from crowing about how I was right when pretty much every person that makes a living from commenting on politics was wrong. Or at least it would if I were a modest person!

As to those moaning about the SNP getting all the seats (basically) without all the votes and the Cons running the country on a third of the vote should stop moaning. Everyone fought the election under the same rules. It's a bit like moaning about going out on the away goals rule or losing because of rain and Duckworth-Lewis being applied.

I do think this election will hasten PR of some sort, probably combined with a constituency system. It'll be interesting to compare vote numbers with seat numbers when the dust settles. I'm just guessing but I strongly suspect that one reason for the Tories winning is that they required fewer votes to carry each seat.

UKIP got 2.5 times the vote of the SNP. The SNP got 50x the number of seats. If the UK is going to remain a multi-party system then PR is required in some form.

I'm going to miss that Lib Dem bloke from Bermondsey. Simon Pegg or something. He was good.

antrobus

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

With so much error in the polls on the run up, does it effectively make them defunct?

Even the exit poll which was closest, didn't predict a Conservative majority

I've always said, the only poll worth taking note of is the actual vote.

For me anyway, they are always going to have to be taken with a pinch of salt

It depends on what kind of level of accuracy you are expecting. The exit poll is conducted on the basis that they predict the largest party’s total to within 20 seats, So when they announce that the Consevatives will win 316 seats, that 316 is the midpoint of a 296-336 range, which is consistent with the actual result.

The exit poll told us;

- that the Conservatives were going to win
- that the SNP were going to win almost every seat in Scotland
- that the Lib Dems were going to be anhilitated

and that's exactly what happened.

As I've told you all before. Once the exit poll comes out, you can all go to bed, safe in the knowledge that you already know what's going to happen.:)

Loughton_Monkey

Generali wrote: »

......I'm going to miss that Lib Dem bloke from Bermondsey. Simon Pegg or something. He was good.

I think it was Simon Who's.

kabayiri

Generali wrote: »

...
I do think this election will hasten PR of some sort, probably combined with a constituency system. It'll be interesting to compare vote numbers with seat numbers when the dust settles. I'm just guessing but I strongly suspect that one reason for the Tories winning is that they required fewer votes to carry each seat.

UKIP got 2.5 times the vote of the SNP. The SNP got 50x the number of seats. If the UK is going to remain a multi-party system then PR is required in some form.
...

It was interesting how UKIP came 2nd in a number of the Northern seats.

I don't think UKIP in it's current form ever was going to be an answer, but if it's a protest vote it sure has worked.

An EU referendum will be an opportunity for nationalism to rear it's head, just as with the Scottish independence ref. Disruptions like this seem to work - they spook the mainstream into making hurried concessions.

UK politics is set to be a lot more mixed.

IveSeenTheLight

antrobus wrote: »

It depends on what kind of level of accuracy you are expecting. The exit poll ..........

I said the exit poll was the closest and always likely to be the most accurate.

All the polls on the other hand in the run up were way outwith the predictions, essentially predicting both Labour and Conservatives to get circa 270 seats each.

antrobus

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I said the exit poll was the closest and always likely to be the most accurate.

All the polls on the other hand in the run up were way outwith the predictions, essentially predicting both Labour and Conservatives to get circa 270 seats each.

Opinion polls don't predict seats, they predict vote shares. They all appear to have got it wrong in terms of the Con-Lab fight, not one of them had a Con 6 point lead. But they were right about Scotland. And they were right(ish) about the Lib Dem, UKIP, and Green vote shares.

Now a lot of people have constructed models that use opinion poll data to generate actual seat predictions. Clearly those predictions have turned out to be inaccurate. I imagine those responsible will blame the pollsters.:)

antrobus

Just noticed.

Conservatives now have 325 seats. 10 left to declare.

That is a majority.

Generali

Loughton_Monkey wrote: »

I think it was Simon Who's.

What's on Bermondsey, Who's on Southwick.

Hang on. I think that's the wrong gag.