Who will win the UK election ?

antrobus

Generali wrote: »

FWIW, this professional pollster runs an excellent blog:

ukpollingreport.co.uk/ukpr-projection-2

and predicts the following if the current polls are how the country votes:

Cons 250
Lab 309
LD: 19
Other (incl SNP): 54
Other Northern Ireland: 18

....

That's a uniform national swing (UNS) projection. As Mr Wells makes clear on that link, For the avoidance of doubt, this is NOT my prediction of what will happen at the election.

Which is the issue. Many pollsters now regard UNS as worse than useless at predicting the result. See for example that other chap from YouGov...

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/12/01/uniform-swing-rip/

antrobus

michaels wrote: »

Aren't those Antohny's numbers obtained by applying UNS (uniform national swing) to the current weighted polling average (as of last Friday?). I don't think many people see that as a prediction ...

Correct. Even the author does not see it as a prediction.

antrobus

If you want some predictions, here are some predictions, including a seat by seat prediction;

http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

Castle

antrobus wrote: »

If you want some predictions, here are some predictions, including a seat by seat prediction;

http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/

Very interesting as it shows Nick Clegg losing in Sheffield Hallam!

Generali

antrobus wrote: »

Correct. Even the author does not see it as a prediction.

I used the wrong word in prediction. Perhaps 'projection' would have been better.

michaels

Castle wrote: »

Very interesting as it shows Nick Clegg losing in Sheffield Hallam!

The individual constituency poll published yesterday shows him losing by 2 points but the polling question prompt only included the party not the candidate's names so it is thought that having such a well known lib dem candidate might be enough to save the seat for them...or not.

antrobus

michaels wrote: »

The individual constituency poll published yesterday shows him losing by 2 points but the polling question prompt only included the party not the candidates names so it is thought that having such a well known lib dem candidate might be enough to save the seat for them...or not.

It's one of Mr Ashcroft's constituency polls.

Interestingly, the Independent reports that the Conservatives do not appear to be making much effort in Sheffield Hallam.

michaels

antrobus wrote: »

It's one of Mr Ashcroft's constituency polls.

Interestingly, the Independent reports that the Conservatives do not appear to be making much effort in Sheffield Hallam.

Clearly completely unrelated, but if Cleggie was out then there is very little chance (even less than very little) of the lib dems considering another coalition with the tories....

antrobus

michaels wrote: »

Clearly completely unrelated, but if Cleggie was out then there is very little chance (even less than very little) of the lib dems considering another coalition with the tories....

If Clegg loses, then presumably deputy leader Malcolm Bruce takes over. The trouble is that Bruce is even more likely to lose his seat than Clegg. It therefore might be the case that the LDs will have very little chance of forming a coalition with anybody, on the grounds that there is nobody left to negotiate with.:)

Thrugelmir

Castle wrote: »

Very interesting as it shows Nick Clegg losing in Sheffield Hallam!

Alexander and Swinson look like they are going to get wiped in their Scots seats. The LibDems are over. UKIP are going to poll better than the LD.