Who will win the UK election ?

ukcarper

Generali wrote: »

Put it another way. If you ran the majority group in Parliament, would you choose to deal with a regional nationalist party whose members have almost no experience in politics let alone running the UK or a group fresh out of Government with whom you agree on many of the Big Picture things?

I know what I would do but we are talking about party political politicians.

Cyberman60

Loughton_Monkey wrote: »

So vote Labour this time, and they'll give it you back, won't they?

Having no children, I am perfectly happy with this. Believe me, the money is far better spent giving vulnerable pensioners like Mrs LM and I embarrasingly high interest rates on our Granny Bonds. The only thing wrong is that they limit it to only £20K, which is pretty much 'small change' to us boomers.

I do wonder the degree to which Margaret Thatcher is spinning in her grave about Cameron. What would she make of him? My own view is that she'd have him marked down as a soft public schoolboy and so damned wet she would never have put him into any ministerial role.

She would have had the debt down to zero by now. Complete abolition of child benefit. Tuition Fees for 5 to 18 year olds [starting at £2K, escalating to £8K at age 18], just to get them 'used to it'. National Service for all unemployed adults. Corporation Tax down to 15% to attract thousand more businesses to base themselves here.

Britain would be booming again.

... large gin & tonics all round... :rotfl:

All good points and I also believe that Maggie would not have signed us up to giving 11 Billion pounds a year (and rising as it's .07% of GDP thanks to the Tories ironically !!) away in foreign aid to despotic countries. :T

purch

michaels wrote: »

I don't know, most polls put tories plus ukip close to 50% which I would have thought would make that by far the most likely coalition under pure pr!

Yes, in the current climate if we had PR for this election that would probably happen, but I was really thinking of 10-20 years in the future. Even if the LibDems were able to get some form of PR agreed with and senior coalition partner it would probably not be in place for 2020, and by then UKIP might have shot their bolt, especially if Farage doesn't win a seat, or just gives up.

Under PR the LibDems & Greens will have far more seats, and probably more left of centre fringe party's will appear over time, all winning the odd seat and all propping up a Labour led coalition.

chucknorris

Cyberman60 wrote: »

Oh the irony !! David Milliband ? In 2030 perhaps ? :rotfl:

Now corrected, obviously I meant DC. Most people would have worked that out though.

antrobus

purch wrote: »

..Under PR the LibDems & Greens will have far more seats, ....

Not neccessarily. Depends on what kind of PR and how they poll.
For example, if we'd had any kind of PR for the 2010 GE then the Green Party would have won no seats at all. The Green Party actually benefited from FPTP because it had a concentration of votes in one particular constituency which it managed to win with the remarkably low plurality of 31%.

purch wrote: »

....and probably more left of centre fringe party's will appear over time, all winning the odd seat and all propping up a Labour led coalition.

As a general rule, most PR systems are specifically designed to ensure that small parties don't get seats, normally be having some kind of threshold.

Which is apart from the fact that I fail to see how the emergence of more 'left of centre fringe parties' that would split the left of centre of vote is going to make it more likely that you have a left of centre government. I'd have thought the opposite was more likely.

sarkybarsteward

The 'Stay At Home' Party will do very well, gaining anything between 25% and 60% of the vote...

Loughton_Monkey

sarkybarsteward wrote: »

The 'Stay At Home' Party will do very well, gaining anything between 25% and 60% of the vote...

antrobus wrote: »

Not neccessarily. Depends on what kind of PR and how they poll.

Yes indeed. Under any sort of "fair" system of PR, the stay-at-homes (35% in 2010) should be fully proportionally represented.

I calculate, therefore, that if the proportion of vote (for the 65% who voted) emulated the exact 2010 result, the overall proportion of seats would be as follows:

Tub of Lard 35%
Conservative 23%
Labour 19%
Liberal 15%
Others 8%

It therefore follows that the Queen would be obliged to ask the Tub of Lard to form a government. Given that the tub of lard is John Prescott, then he would never join a coalition with Conservatives, so he would join with Labour. John Prescott as Prime Minister. Ed Miliband as Deputy Prime Minister.

Enough to make us all emigrate to Greece.

antrobus

Loughton_Monkey wrote: »

...It therefore follows that the Queen would be obliged to ask the Tub of Lard to form a government. Given that the tub of lard is John Prescott, then he would never join a coalition with Conservatives, so he would join with Labour. John Prescott as Prime Minister. Ed Miliband as Deputy Prime Minister.....

I thought the original Tub of Lard was Roy Hattersley?

Besides, if there is going to be a contest over whom should be the Tub of Lard, wouldn't Eric Pickles be a contender? He certainly shows signs of having eaten a lot of pies.

Zero_Gravitas

Hang on - IIRC, the tub of lard was actually Roy Hattersley (now The Lord Hattersley). I suppose he could still be asked...


(sorry - antrobus beat me to it)

Generali

antrobus wrote: »

I thought the original Tub of Lard was Roy Hattersley?

Besides, if there is going to be a contest over whom should be the Tub of Lard, wouldn't Eric Pickles be a contender? He certainly shows signs of having eaten a lot of pies.

Sir Fatty Soames.



He is also partial to a glass of wine or 40 apparently.