Who will win the UK election ?

michaels

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Alexander and Swinson look like they are going to get wiped in their Scots seats. The LibDems are over. UKIP are going to poll better than the LD.

OTOH they will probably get a higher percentage of the total vote than the Nats who will nonetheless get the best part of 50 seats.

Thrugelmir

michaels wrote: »

OTOH they will probably get a higher percentage of the total vote than the Nats who will nonetheless get the best part of 50 seats.

Perhaps we will finally see proportional representation in this country. Long overdue.

Generali

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Perhaps we will finally see proportional representation in this country. Long overdue.

If people vote as they say they're going to it seems the most likely outcome.

Thrugelmir

Generali wrote: »

If people vote as they say they're going to it seems the most likely outcome.

With regional assemblies then it's the way for the UK to operate as a whole.

Current parties don't reflect the modern society.

I worked with a guy who was a Marxist at University then went onto become a CEO of a Nasdaq Company. Very few these days stick to their roots. Such as the likes of the now gone Bob Crowe. Even Scargill had to to be evicted from a Union flat in the Barbican.

Seems as if self interest is the order of the day.

chewmylegoff

antrobus wrote: »

If Clegg loses, then presumably deputy leader Malcolm Bruce takes over. The trouble is that Bruce is even more likely to lose his seat than Clegg. It therefore might be the case that the LDs will have very little chance of forming a coalition with anybody, on the grounds that there is nobody left to negotiate with.:)

Presumably Vince Cable would end up in charge.

michaels

chewmylegoff wrote: »

Presumably Vince Cable would end up in charge.

Are we sure he is safe?

Thrugelmir

chewmylegoff wrote: »

Presumably Vince Cable would end up in charge.

Of himself at this rate. :eek:

Generali

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/the-liberal-democrat-battleground/

Thought this was interesting.

two thirds of those who said they would vote UKIP were either satisfied with Cameron’s performance as Prime Minister, or dissatisfied but preferred him to Miliband. Eighty-five per cent of Conservative switchers to UKIP said they would rather have Cameron as PM; three quarters said they wanted to see the Conservatives back in government, including a majority (53%) whose preferred result was a Tory overall majority.

I have long wondered exactly how many of these UKIP 'voters' are actually going to vote UKIP and how many will hold their noses and vote Tory on the day. It seems that this is potentially a large number. I also wonder if the same holds true for Labour switchers to UKIP (I believe that UKIP has taken votes from Labour and Tory in roughly equal number).

Instead of White Van Man or Mondeo Man perhaps it's Protest Voting Person who will win it this time around.

antrobus

chewmylegoff wrote: »

Presumably Vince Cable would end up in charge.

Why Vince Cable?

Tim Farron is supposed to the One.

antrobus

Generali wrote: »

...I have long wondered exactly how many of these UKIP 'voters' are actually going to vote UKIP and how many will hold their noses and vote Tory on the day. ...

I believe that to be one of the 'Don't Knows'.

Pollsters tend to work on the basis of 'past performance'. As in, previous experience tells them what lies people tell about their voting intention, and so they can 'adjust' their numbers. But they don't really have any previous experiece of UKIP running at 15%, so they don't really know.