Who will win the UK election ?

Castle

Under PR there would have been a Lab/Lib majority, (over 50%), at every election since 1959. I think that sequence is about to come to an end.

As for the election result, my best guess is:
Con-280
Lab-280
SNP-30
Lib-30
Others-30
Maybe Rock, paper, scissors?

michaels

Castle wrote: »

Under PR there would have been a Lab/Lib majority, (over 50%), at every election since 1959. I think that sequence is about to come to an end.

As for the election result, my best guess is:
Con-280
Lab-280
SNP-30
Lib-30
Others-30
Maybe Rock, paper, scissors?

Only 30 for the SNP? As many as 30 for the lib dems?

antrobus

Zero_Gravitas wrote: »

Hang on - IIRC, the tub of lard was actually Roy Hattersley (now The Lord Hattersley). I suppose he could still be asked...

Prescott is now the Lord Prescott as well, as it happens.

Generali wrote: »

Sir Fatty Soames.

He is also partial to a glass of wine or 40 apparently.

See, it's a contest! And at least Fatty Soames will be in the Commons if he wins. Which he probably will. Mid Sussex looks rather safe.

antrobus

Castle wrote: »

Under PR there would have been a Lab/Lib majority, (over 50%), at every election since 1959....

You could equally well have written that under "PR there would have been a Con/Lib majority, (over 50%), at every election since 1959".

After all, wouldn't you expect the Liberal Party to espouse the cause of liberalism?

Castle wrote: »

...
I think that sequence is about to come to an end.

As for the election result, my best guess is:
Con-280
Lab-280
SNP-30
Lib-30
Others-30
Maybe Rock, paper, scissors?

Please stop your attempt to get this thread back on topic.:)

Generali

Castle wrote: »

Under PR there would have been a Lab/Lib majority, (over 50%), at every election since 1959. I think that sequence is about to come to an end.

As for the election result, my best guess is:
Con-280
Lab-280
SNP-30
Lib-30
Others-30
Maybe Rock, paper, scissors?

FWIW, this professional pollster runs an excellent blog:

ukpollingreport.co.uk/ukpr-projection-2

and predicts the following if the current polls are how the country votes:

Cons 250
Lab 309
LD: 19
Other (incl SNP): 54
Other Northern Ireland: 18

My guess is that this election is going to be a bit like 1992 where people either switch to Tory at the last minute or simply don't want to admit to pollsters that they plan to vote Tory. As a result I think we'll see Cons up a fair bit on that number and Labour down quite a bit.

I also suspect that some UKIP support will move across to the Tories and Green to Labour. People don't vote, or at least haven't in the past voted, for protest parties in General Elections.

The other great imponderable is the SNP. Are the Scots really going to return a huge numbers of MPs of a party that will never form a Government simply because they only stand in Scotland so can never get enough seats? It certainly looks that way at present but it is difficult to get accurate polling numbers when a party has a huge swing in support like that as it makes 'normalising' the sample (getting the sample of the population you ask questions of to represent the population as a whole) almost impossible.

MobileSaver

Sapphire wrote: »

Although I've heard it said that rich people (of all persuasions) are prone to practising tax avoidance, being able to pay accountants who can help them to do this in a variety of imaginative ways.

And yet the richest people in the UK still pay more tax in one year than the average working person pays in their entire lifetime...

Castle

michaels wrote: »

Only 30 for the SNP? As many as 30 for the lib dems?

That's why it's called a "guess"

Castle

antrobus wrote: »

You could equally well have written that under "PR there would have been a Con/Lib majority, (over 50%), at every election since 1959".

Actually no I couldn't, because in 1997 Con/Lib was 47.5% and in 2001 49.95%

michaels

Generali wrote: »

FWIW, this professional pollster runs an excellent blog:

ukpollingreport.co.uk/ukpr-projection-2

and predicts the following if the current polls are how the country votes:

Cons 250
Lab 309
LD: 19
Other (incl SNP): 54
Other Northern Ireland: 18

My guess is that this election is going to be a bit like 1992 where people either switch to Tory at the last minute or simply don't want to admit to pollsters that they plan to vote Tory. As a result I think we'll see Cons up a fair bit on that number and Labour down quite a bit.

I also suspect that some UKIP support will move across to the Tories and Green to Labour. People don't vote, or at least haven't in the past voted, for protest parties in General Elections.

The other great imponderable is the SNP. Are the Scots really going to return a huge numbers of MPs of a party that will never form a Government simply because they only stand in Scotland so can never get enough seats? It certainly looks that way at present but it is difficult to get accurate polling numbers when a party has a huge swing in support like that as it makes 'normalising' the sample (getting the sample of the population you ask questions of to represent the population as a whole) almost impossible.

Aren't those Antohny's numbers obtained by applying UNS (uniform national swing) to the current weighted polling average (as of last Friday?). I don't think many people see that as a prediction because UNS is fairly meaningless (especially with the Scottish situation) and because almost every other seat projection (which tend to be tory and labour neck and neck) is based on a 'swing back' effect which has been observed historically in almost every election (I know past performance is not a guide to the future etc etc.)

Generali

michaels wrote: »

Aren't those Antohny's numbers obtained by applying UNS (uniform national swing) to the current weighted polling average (as of last Friday?). I don't think many people see that as a prediction because UNS is fairly meaningless (especially with the Scottish situation) and because almost every other seat projection (which tend to be tory and labour neck and neck) is based on a 'swing back' effect which has been observed historically in almost every election (I know past performance is not a guide to the future etc etc.)

He doesn't use UNS in Scotland any more I think as the swing to the SNP in Scotland implies a negative vote for Labour in some seats.