Who will win the UK election ?

chucknorris

The betfair 'Next Government' market now has labour minority gov as the marginal favourite, but the Tories are 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourites, the current approx. odds are:

9/4 Lab minority Gov
3/1 Con minority Gov
7/1 Con majority Gov
13/2 Con/Lib coalition Gov
10/1 Lab/Lib coalition Gov
16/1 bar

In other words, it is too close to call.


EDIT: But as you can from my post below, the tories remain fav to form any gov, as can be seen in betfair's 'next prime minister' market where they are about 8/11. Labour are only fav in the 'specific type of gov' market.

Fella

Surprised the Tories haven't made a late announcement that the referendum would be 2016 not 2017. Win them tons of UKIP votes at a stroke. Delaying it until 2017 isn't going to do them much good if they don't win.

padington

chucknorris wrote: »

The betfair 'Next Government' market now has labour as the marginal favourite, but the Tories are 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourites, the current approx. odds are:

9/4 Lab minority Gov
3/1 Con minority Gov
7/1 Con majority Gov
13/2 Con/Lib coalition Gov
10/1 Lab/Lib coalition Gov
16/1 bar

In other words, it is too close to call.

Lib dems have also said they won't form a rainbow alliance with a third party.

BobQ

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Seems as if self interest is the order of the day.

The change of attitude fostered by Mrs T in my view, for good or ill that is how people see it. "Why should I pay taxes for education, I do not have kids?" etc

BobQ

Generali wrote: »

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/04/the-liberal-democrat-battleground/

Thought this was interesting.



I have long wondered exactly how many of these UKIP 'voters' are actually going to vote UKIP and how many will hold their noses and vote Tory on the day. It seems that this is potentially a large number. I also wonder if the same holds true for Labour switchers to UKIP (I believe that UKIP has taken votes from Labour and Tory in roughly equal number).

Instead of White Van Man or Mondeo Man perhaps it's Protest Voting Person who will win it this time around.

I think this is true, but more generally. Tactical voting will determine the outcome. Those who say people are going to fight for another coalition fail to realise that people cannot do this. Voting tactically could yield unexpected results.

As you say UKIP support might collapse and see an unexpected Tory majority. Or it could hold because they want an EU referendum and a stop to immigration. But we may also find that Lib Dems and Tories in Scotland fearing an SNP whitewash might vote Labour, or a resurgence in Lib Dem support in areas by those who fear an unconstrained majority.

zagfles

chucknorris wrote: »

The betfair 'Next Government' market now has labour as the marginal favourite, but the Tories are 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourites, the current approx. odds are:

9/4 Lab minority Gov
3/1 Con minority Gov
7/1 Con majority Gov
13/2 Con/Lib coalition Gov
10/1 Lab/Lib coalition Gov
16/1 bar

In other words, it is too close to call.

I was puzzled by that as they clearly have the Tories favourites to win most seats.

But the flaw is that if you add the Con minority odds to the Con majority odds (use decimal odds and add 1/odds, then do 1/total), and do the same for Labour, then the Tories are favourites to form either a majority or minority govt.

BobQ

zagfles wrote: »

I was puzzled by that as they clearly have the Tories favourites to win most seats.

But the flaw is that if you add the Con minority odds to the Con majority odds (use decimal odds and add 1/odds, then do 1/total), and do the same for Labour, then the Tories are favourites to form either a majority or minority govt.

Cab you do that in a meaningful way?

chucknorris

BobQ wrote: »

Cab you do that in a meaningful way?

He means in a 100% book (which betfair usually is) the odds equate to the following (approx.) percentages:

25% - 3/1
13.3% -13/2
12.5% - 7/1

50.8% total, but when you add the odds (in the bar price) of Con/UKIP at 33/1, that gives a total of 53.8% so about 5/6.

Which is an extremely close race, which is why I said that 'it was too close to call', so I don't see what he means by a 'flaw'.

Although for that type of interpretation, the best market to look at it is betfair's 'next prime minster' market. This is more accurate (as there are no 'other result' prices quoted) and is about 8/11 and 11/8 in favour of the tories.

zagfles

BobQ wrote: »

Cab you do that in a meaningful way?

Certainly can, arb'ers do it all the time. See the Matched Betting board.

Current betfair odd in decimal are:
Lab min 3.25
Con min 4.1
Con maj 7.6
Lab maj 36

To OR mutually exclusive bets (ie where both results can't happen) with odds of x and y the odds are 1 / ( (1/x) + (1/y) )

So in this example the odds of majority OR minority are
Con 2.66
Lab 2.98

To actually get these odds, you bet in proportion of x/(x+y) on y and y/(x+y) on x

Eg to bet £10 on Con (maj or min) bet £3.50 on Con Maj and £6.50 on Con Min, and you end up with £26.60 if either happens.

ExMugPunter

Castle wrote: »

Very interesting as it shows Nick Clegg losing in Sheffield Hallam!

I am surprised this hasn't been picked up more.

Sheffield Hallam has a massive student population and (I think) it has had more student halls built in there since the last election.

If they have got organised and registered to vote at their Uni address, there would be enough to kick him out.

This is an old article, but is still relevant:

http://www.theguardian.com/education/mortarboard/2014/jul/28/sheffield-hallam-students-vote-out-nick-clegg