Who will win the UK election ?

zagfles

ExMugPunter wrote: »

I am surprised this hasn't been picked up more.

Sheffield Hallam has a massive student population and (I think) it has had more student halls built in there since the last election.

If they have got organised and registered to vote at their Uni address, there would be enough to kick him out.

This is an old article, but is still relevant:

http://www.theguardian.com/education/mortarboard/2014/jul/28/sheffield-hallam-students-vote-out-nick-clegg

But who would they vote for? Labour, who promised not to introduce top-up fees in the 2001 election but then broke that promise in 2004? Without the excuse of having a coalition partner?

zagfles

chucknorris wrote: »

He means in a 100% book (which betfair usually is) the odds equate to the following (approx.) percentages:

25% - 3/1
13.3% -13/2
12.5% - 7/1

50.8% total, but when you add the odds (in the bar price) of Con/UKIP at 33/1, that gives a total of 53.8% so about 5/6.

Which is an extremely close race, which is why I said that 'it was too close to call', so I don't see what he means by a 'flaw'.

The "flaw" is that Labour look favourites to form a govt only because the Tory odds are more split between majority and minority. The Labour majority odds are very long.

chucknorris

zagfles wrote: »

The "flaw" is that Labour look favourites to form a govt only because the Tory odds are more split between majority and minority. The Labour majority odds are very long.

You seem to have misunderstood, labour are NOT favourites to form a government (of any type), they are merely the favourites of the particular type of Gov formed market. The tories are favourite to be part of any type of Gov formed market.

zagfles

chucknorris wrote: »

You seem to have misunderstood, labour are NOT favourites to form a government (of any type), they are merely the favourites of the particular type of Gov formed. The tories are favourite to be part of any type of Gov formed.

Well yes, that what I said. Whereas you wrote

The betfair 'Next Government' market now has labour as the marginal favourite...

They haven't, as you now agree.

chucknorris

zagfles wrote: »

Well yes, that what I said. Whereas you wrote They haven't, as you now agree.

Betfair's 'next gov' market is the specific gov formed, not ANY gov formed. A particular type of Lab gov (i.e. a Lab minority) ARE the favourites in this market, that is fact.

What you misunderstood is that betfair's market was for a specific type of gov formed, not ANY type of gov formed. A Lab minority are the fav in betfair's 'next gov' market, go on check, they are about 9/4 fav in that market.

EDIT: I also said in my original post that Con are the 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourites (in that particular market), that makes them a shorter combined price, if you are considering ANY type of gov, but ANY type is not what that betfair market is about.


You also seemed to have missed this that I previously posted, which clearly identifies the cons as favourites for ANY type of Gov:

chucknorris wrote: »

Although for that type of interpretation, the best market to look at it is betfair's 'next prime minster' market. This is more accurate (as there are no 'other result' prices quoted) and is about 8/11 and 11/8 in favour of the tories.

But I have edited my earlier post to make it even clearer for those that haven't checked the rules of that particular next gov betting market.

ExMugPunter

zagfles wrote: »

But who would they vote for? Labour, who promised not to introduce top-up fees in the 2001 election but then broke that promise in 2004? Without the excuse of having a coalition partner?

They are trying to rally round the Labour guy who was brought up and still lives in the area.

He also came across well in the recent debate.

http://www.thestar.co.uk/video/news/star-debate-nick-clegg-and-rivals-clash-4136628213001

It would be a massive swing though as Labour don't usually do anything in Hallam.

Castle

zagfles wrote: »

But who would they vote for? Labour, who promised not to introduce top-up fees in the 2001 election but then broke that promise in 2004? Without the excuse of having a coalition partner?

One interesting fact about Sheffield Hallam is that it has never elected a Labour MP, and Labour hasn't even finished second since 1979.

I would guess most current students can't remember 2004, but they will certainly remember Mr Clegg's broken promise!

zagfles

chucknorris wrote: »

But I have edited my earlier post to make it even clearer for those that haven't checked the rules of that particular next gov betting market.

Good, you've corrected your mistake

zagfles

Castle wrote: »

One interesting fact about Sheffield Hallam is that it has never elected a Labour MP, and Labour hasn't even finished second since 1979.

I would guess most current students can't remember 2004, but they will certainly remember Mr Clegg's broken promise!

Would they really remember a promise that was made when they'd have been in their early teens?

I'm surprised Clegg didn't mention Labour's broken promise when the issue came up last night, although one of the minor party leaders did.

Maybe they should vote Tory as I don't think the Tories have broken a promise to students in their lifetimes

Loughton_Monkey

zagfles wrote: »

Would they really remember a promise that was made when they'd have been in their early teens?

Give it 9 months, and nobody will remember who Nick Clegg is. Let alone what he may have promised.