Who will win the UK election ?

purch

Generali wrote: »

Hopefully this is all moot. The latest prdictions I see would allow a Lib/Lab coalition to govern. Given the huge number of votes minor parties will get, I also suspect the time is ripe for electoral reform: how come the SNP get 40-50 seats with 2% of the vote and the Greens get 1 seat at most with ~10% and UKIP 2-3 with 15%? If politics really isn't a two horse race any more, the rules need to change and I think people will recognise that.

Hopefully the LibDems will have more success achieving some electoral reform if they are the junior partner with Labour than they could with the Conservatives.

Whilst it would cost Labour seats, I think it is far more likely that they will find likely allies in the fringe party's with whom to form a Government than the Conservatives will ever have.

Generali

purch wrote: »

Hopefully the LibDems will have more success achieving some electoral reform if they are the junior partner with Labour than they could with the Conservatives.

Whilst it would cost Labour seats, I think it is far more likely that they will find likely allies in the fringe party's with whom to form a Government than the Conservatives will ever have.

For the Tories there's the DUP and possibly UKIP.

UKIP basically want one thing: out of Europe. A referendum on the matter should be enough.

michaels

purch wrote: »

Hopefully the LibDems will have more success achieving some electoral reform if they are the junior partner with Labour than they could with the Conservatives.

Whilst it would cost Labour seats, I think it is far more likely that they will find likely allies in the fringe party's with whom to form a Government than the Conservatives will ever have.

I don't know, most polls put tories plus ukip close to 50% which I would have thought would make that by far the most likely coalition under pure pr!

chucknorris

Generali wrote: »

The latest prdictions I see would allow a Lib/Lab coalition to govern. Given the huge number of votes minor parties will get, I also suspect the time is ripe for electoral reform: how come the SNP get 40-50 seats with 2% of the vote and the Greens get 1 seat at most with ~10% and UKIP 2-3 with 15%?

I think (and fear) that this will be most likely too, but I can't help but feel that I am missing something because the betfair market for who will be PM after the election is currently approximately:

8/11 DC
11/8 EM

This surprises me, because I would have thought that it would be the other way around, so I can't help feeling that I have overlooked something.

Generali

chucknorris wrote: »

I think (and fear) that this will be most likely too, but I can't help but feel that I am missing something because the betfair market for who will be PM after the election is currently approximately:

8/11 DM
11/8 EM

This surprises me, because I would have thought that it would be the other way around, so I can't help feeling that I have overlooked something.

AIUI, in the event of a hung parliament, the PM gets first shot at forming a Government.

BobQ

purch wrote: »

Hopefully the LibDems will have more success achieving some electoral reform if they are the junior partner with Labour than they could with the Conservatives.

Whilst it would cost Labour seats, I think it is far more likely that they will find likely allies in the fringe party's with whom to form a Government than the Conservatives will ever have.

Of course when a truly inspirational leader emerges we will return to majority parties again.

chucknorris

Generali wrote: »

AIUI, in the event of a hung parliament, the PM gets first shot at forming a Government.

I don't think he will have enough allies, although I do hope that history proves me wrong, maybe I am just being too pessimistic?

Cyberman60

Voltaire7 wrote: »

Do you think this imbalance needs to be addressed?

No. I don't think people at the bottom should pay any income tax at all, as they are low earners and we all need incentives to work. They will be paying other taxes anyway, such as VAT on purchases, council tax, fuel duty tax, NI.

What I do disagree with is Brown's expensive WTC system brought in in 2000 that actually deters work for many people, and benefit-breeders money (child benefit).

Cyberman60

chucknorris wrote: »

I think (and fear) that this will be most likely too, but I can't help but feel that I am missing something because the betfair market for who will be PM after the election is currently approximately:

8/11 DM
11/8 EM

This surprises me, because I would have thought that it would be the other way around, so I can't help feeling that I have overlooked something.

Oh the irony !! David Milliband ? In 2030 perhaps ? :rotfl:

Cyberman60

michaels wrote: »

I don't know, most polls put tories plus ukip close to 50% which I would have thought would make that by far the most likely coalition under pure pr!

Indeed, there's no other real choice if the UK wants to prosper. :T