Scottish independence

bowlhead99

If it's true that UK GDP is "better together" and a "no to independence" vote removes the uncertainty about Scotland maybe dropping the pound, that should be a small positive for GBP as a currency. So rather than worrying about which equities to tilt towards, I might go "long sterling" against dollars and/or Euro with a cheeky spreadbet or two.

Of course, by the third week of September there will have been more uk, us, europe interest rate meetings and other economic indicators that could have a bigger effect over the time period. So I might leave it until nearer the time before thinking about it further. I already have some money on No at the bookies which I don't want to add to without higher quality polls data, but an FX rate punt might hedge the effect of a strengthened pound on my USD cash and investments, and I'm generally bullish on the pound anyway.

edinburgher

Haha - I had forgotten that you could bet on almost anything

ColdIron

bowlhead99 wrote: »

I already have some money on No at the bookies

Me too, odds at Betfair have been holding steady for some time now

http://uk.site.sports.betfair.com/betting/LoadRunnerInfoAction.do?marketId=110033387&selectionId=5334893&timeZone=Europe/London&locale=en&region=GBR&brand=betfair&currency=GBP

black_taxi_2

turnout under 80%--- NO win --Scotland 10/11

turnout over 80%

---

YES win--Scotland 10/1

ladcroakes

biggest ever turnout referendum bill on home rule 67%

bowlhead99

ColdIron wrote: »

Me too, odds at Betfair have been holding steady for some time now

http://uk.site.sports.betfair.com/betting/LoadRunnerInfoAction.do?marketId=110033387&selectionId=5334893&timeZone=Europe/London&locale=en&region=GBR&brand=betfair&currency=GBP

Yes I had some on there when No was paying 1.25, 1.35 and 1.45. I locked in a profit on some of the higher odds bets when it dipped below 1.2. Since then though I've relented and added a few more at lower odds, think it was 1.16ish at weekend.

However I'm conscious that the huge wall of money sitting on No is coming from across the whole UK while according to some other bookies, the bets from Scots were much more skewed toward the Yes camp, which is disconcerting. It might merely tell us that the kind of Scot that gambles at long odds is a passionate (perhaps misguided) patriot, but these are all voters.

I don't have anything bet on the turnout rates as I think that's trickier to call -as there has not been a vote quite like this before and I'm sure turnout will be high, I just don't know how high.

Mirno

I don't think it'll have too much impact FTSE wise, but I'm interested in what it'll do to bond prices.

Thrugelmir

A transfer of head offices south of the border will be extremely positive for the UK.

Oil is traded in $ so has no direct impact on the UK.

rpc

bowlhead99 wrote: »

However I'm conscious that the huge wall of money sitting on No is coming from ask the UK while according to some other bookies, the bets from Scots were much more skewed toward the Yes camp, which is disconcerting. It might merely tell us that the kind of Scot that gambles at long odds is a passionate (perhaps misguided) patriot, but these are all voters.

Perhaps they are No voters hedging the risk

talexuser

Got to be some reaction to a yes, but if they vote for independence, and then refuse to accept any share of the national debt, then I can't see world markets having much trust in a new Scottish government's promises or bonds, after refusing responsibility for historic liabilities, especially if financials also relocate to London.

anoncol

Only scots care about this.