'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

if you had bought a london property in april it would have had a higher asking price than today and would have achieved a higher percentage of that asking price than today.

How can you possibly know that? You've argued that the lag to real sold figures is massive and there's something wrong with official data anyway.

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

How can you possibly know that? You've argued that the lag to real sold figures is massive and there's something wrong with official data anyway.

because asking prices are lower than they were in avril
and the percentage of the asking price achieved is lower than in avril
in addition, houses are no longer selling on the first day they hit the market. i haven't viewed since avril but i'm assuming this means there is now scope for negotiation

Bubble_and_Squeak

Jason74 wrote: »

This is true. But it's also irrelevant. Transaction volumes are in many respects a red herring when talking about prices. What is relevant is the number of active sellers compared to active buyers, and how successful sellers are at achieving the prices that they''re asking for (measured by things like time to sell, % of asking price avceived etc.) .

I can only talk with any authority about London (and a fairly small portion of it at that), but in the areas I know well, all of those indicators have until recently been consistently positive over at least a two to three year period. It was interesting that picking up this trend and pointing it out in it's early stages actually earned me a ban from HPC (you haven't commented on my post relating to that btw . . .I wonder why?). Naturally, the observation was also shot down on HPC, with a poster called "Dances with Sheeple" immediately posting a patronising reply stating that others would soon be along to correct my error. But time has sadly (to me as someone who considers HPI bad) proved my view to be accurate.

Now to bring the thread completely back on topic, there's no doubt my local market has changed quite dramatically in recent Months, and this seems quite common in much of London listening to posters on here who know other areas. But looking at what's going on around me, I think we're looking at a small correction following a market overshoot, rather than a meaningful tipping point. Certainly, as of today, if you want to sell a house in my area in a week, just price it 5-10% under other similar properties. If that changes, then we can talk about a meaningful tipping point . But as of today , we're nowhere near that place.

there is no doubt this is happening, although this forums equivalent of the HPC brigade will argue it is not.
given that supply is still increasing do you not think this is likely to decisively tip the market coming into the last quarter?
with an election looming there is not enough time for the government to intervene to stop it.

Bubble_and_Squeak

mayonnaise wrote: »

Is your real name Bulle et Grince???

VHAD???
just showing a bit of solidarity with our brethren across the channel
its the least i could do now that they're time sharing their aircraft carriers with us

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

because asking prices are lower than they were in avril
and the percentage of the asking price achieved is lower than in avril
in addition, houses are no longer selling on the first day they hit the market. i haven't viewed since avril but i'm assuming this means there is now scope for negotiation

You've just repeated the same assertion. You've been arguing until you're blue in the face that there's a huge lag in the publication of sold price data. How have you managed to get fast tracked data that your trust?

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

You've just repeated the same assertion. You've been arguing until you're blue in the face that there's a huge lag in the publication of sold price data. How have you managed to get fast tracked data that your trust?

the fact that houses are sitting on the market unsold for months rather than hours tells its own story

Crashy_Time

Jason74 wrote: »

This is true. But it's also irrelevant. Transaction volumes are in many respects a red herring when talking about prices. What is relevant is the number of active sellers compared to active buyers, and how successful sellers are at achieving the prices that they''re asking for (measured by things like time to sell, % of asking price avceived etc.) .

I can only talk with any authority about London (and a fairly small portion of it at that), but in the areas I know well, all of those indicators have until recently been consistently positive over at least a two to three year period. It was interesting that picking up this trend and pointing it out in it's early stages actually earned me a ban from HPC (you haven't commented on my post relating to that btw . . .I wonder why?). Naturally, the observation was also shot down on HPC, with a poster called "Dances with Sheeple" immediately posting a patronising reply stating that others would soon be along to correct my error. But time has sadly (to me as someone who considers HPI bad) proved my view to be accurate.

Now to bring the thread completely back on topic, there's no doubt my local market has changed quite dramatically in recent Months, and this seems quite common in much of London listening to posters on here who know other areas. But looking at what's going on around me, I think we're looking at a small correction following a market overshoot, rather than a meaningful tipping point. Certainly, as of today, if you want to sell a house in my area in a week, just price it 5-10% under other similar properties. If that changes, then we can talk about a meaningful tipping point . But as of today , we're nowhere near that place.

Lower transactions mean more people struggling to sell, and more chance of them cutting prices when it becomes apparent that the market is tanking. Stats skewed by London giving high average prices doesn`t help someone in Doncaster who has been trying to sell for three years?


At the peak of the Ponzi mania no one had any trouble selling on their house for the new higher price, because fresh money (credit) and Bullish sentiment was fuelling the fire, the fact that the transaction levels have dropped since them is very significant because it indicates that even with desperate assistance measures the housing market is still in collapse mode.


And before someone crows on about how London prices have spiked, a bubble on a bubble in London (Popping now) doesn`t mean that the UK housing market isn`t still firmly in collapse mode.

Crashy_Time

purch wrote: »

If you stick a question mark at the end of a statement, it appears to everyone else that you don't believe what you are stating.

In this instance it is the equivalent of saying to a group of people in conversation "Am I right or wrong?" or "Do you agree?"


Just to keep things clear and simple, I am saying that volumes are way down on the so called peak of the market, and this, along with desperate emergency rates etc. indicates that there is nothing but downside now for UK property.

wotsthat

Bubble_and_Squeak wrote: »

the fact that houses are sitting on the market unsold for months rather than hours tells its own story

So your assertion is based on another assertion that you can't support.

According to the last Rightmove release days to sell in London have gone from 41 in April to 49 in August so your assertion looks to wrong anyway.

purch

wotsthat wrote: »

your assertion is based on another assertion that you can't support.

That is the whole basis of this forum.