'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

lukeh23

Note: There is a character limit to the subject header, so I could not post the whole title, the title is:

'We've reached a tipping point': Signs of house price weakness as sentiment among hopeful buyers plunges

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-2707467/Weve-reached-tipping-point-Further-signs-house-price-weakness-sentiment-hopeful-buyers-plunges.html

ruggedtoast

I cant think of many times since 2005 it seemed like a good time to buy. Yet people have been and pushing up prices.

I do clearly remember looking on Rightmove in mid 2008 and seeing a house in West Ruislip that was on for £225k and having a strong feeling that we should go and look at it. I allowed myself to be pretty well talked out if it my Mrs RT who was pregnant at the time and was just settling into our lovely new rental.

No hurry I thought, prices are falling there'll be 70% off by Christmas. Oh well.

lukeh23

ruggedtoast wrote: »

I cant think of many times since 2005 it seemed like a good time to buy. Yet people have been and pushing up prices.

2009 perhaps? (almost 20% down on 2005)

ruggedtoast wrote: »

I do clearly remember looking on Rightmove in mid 2008 and seeing a house in West Ruislip that was on for £225k and having a strong feeling that we should go and look at it. I allowed myself to be pretty well talked out if it my Mrs RT who was pregnant at the time and was just settling into our lovely new rental.

No hurry I thought, prices are falling there'll be 70% off by Christmas. Oh well..

I don't get the relevance here. Are you saying that a personal experience you had in 2008 looking at a house off rightmove negates study data processed by the Halifax in the past few days?

AndyGuil

Sales volumes are higher than they have been for a long time and this month alone has jumped up. I think perhaps the emotional component of these surveys plays a strong role. If you get a jump in prices over a short period then it raises uncertainty in how potential buyers estimate future prices (i.e. consumer confidence). As the rises stabilise to more usual levels then confidence returns.

Crashy_Time

From the BBC -


"Seven out of 10 regions of England and Wales recorded month-on-month falls in house prices in June, according to the Land Registry."

AndyGuil

Month on month figures;
January +1.0% http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/media...a-january-2014
February +0.7% http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/media...-february-2014
March -0.4% http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/media...ata-march-2014
April +1.5% http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/media...ata-april-2014
May +0.4% http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/media...-data-may-2014

mayonnaise

Crashy_Time wrote: »

From the BBC -


"Seven out of 10 regions of England and Wales recorded month-on-month falls in house prices in June, according to the Land Registry."

A bit similar to June 2013 then.

http://www.landregistry.gov.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/49529/HPIReport20130723.pdf

Crashy_Time

mayonnaise wrote: »

A bit similar to June 2013 then.




Transaction volumes probably a lot lower though?

ruggedtoast

lukeh23 wrote: »

2009 perhaps? (almost 20% down on 2005)



I don't get the relevance here. Are you saying that a personal experience you had in 2008 looking at a house off rightmove negates study data processed by the Halifax in the past few days?

The only time I remember it feeling even a bit like a buyer's market in the SE was mid 2008 to mid 2009, and even that was more on the back of very low supply and very few buyers.

If you managed to buy one of those Ruislip bay window terrace houses for £225k now you would be laughing you head off, but back then that was only 10% off the £250k stamp duty threshold they had been selling at in the boom.

What are they now; £400,000? Half a million?

We were first time buyers with a deposit and AIP ready to go. Every time we read the media about prices dropping and every day we logged onto rightmove and saw the same handful of houses listed that werent selling, werent reducing, and the vendors werent taking offers.

At the time I thought the dam had to burst but all that happened were the media stopped reporting falls that didnt seem to be reflected in any part of SE England we were looking at, and started reporting rises that had an immediate effect on asking prices.

There never was a crash in anywhere I have lived.

Crashy_Time

ruggedtoast wrote: »

The only time I remember it feeling even a bit like a buyer's market in the SE was mid 2008 to mid 2009, and even that was more on the back of very low supply and very few buyers.

If you managed to buy one of those Ruislip bay window terrace houses for £225k now you would be laughing you head off, but back then that was only 10% off the £250k stamp duty threshold they had been selling at in the boom.

What are they now; £400,000? Half a million?

We were first time buyers with a deposit and AIP ready to go. Every time we read the media about prices dropping and every day we logged onto rightmove and saw the same handful of houses listed that werent selling, werent reducing, and the vendors werent taking offers.

At the time I thought the dam had to burst but all that happened were the media stopped reporting falls that didnt seem to be reflected in any part of SE England we were looking at, and started reporting rises that had an immediate effect on asking prices.

There never was a crash in anywhere I have lived.

Plenty of time yet.

ruggedtoast

Crashy_Time wrote: »

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Plenty of time yet.

For most people, no there isn't. You are young for a very short amount of time, renting is far from suitable the older you get and a lot of the HPCers have been waiting for a decade or more already.

Are you one of them? There has been an imminent house price crash predicted every few months for ten years, even during the actual crash, prices barely dropped unless you were really eagle eyed.

Between the end of 2008 and the end of 2009 we went from being able to afford a house we didnt want in an area we wanted to live in, to being priced out of pretty much everywhere.

Thank god my job took me out of London or I would by now still be renting and paying most of my net pay out in rent.