'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

JWF

MobileSaver wrote: »

Um, no, sales volumes have been steadily rising since 2008 which is why your point makes no sense whatsoever.



Fact 1: Sales volumes are rising
Fact 2: Sales prices are rising

Indeed - see table 2 of this document, which shows sales volume for residential properties has gone up each year since 2009. Not exactly plummeting then unless my arithmetic is, er.... wrong.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/355917/UK_Tables_Sep_2014__cir_.pdf

MobileSaver

lisyloo wrote: »

then why wouldn't they wait?

Wait for what?

lisyloo wrote: »

I'm not a serious buyer at the moment so easy to say when you're not putting your money where you mouth is, but logic would say to me that the risks are on the downside.

I think what you are missing is that, for most people, buying a home is primarily an emotional decision. They're buying because they are fed up of renting or fed up of living with mum and dad, they want to move to a nicer area or nearer to school/work etc.

At the forefront of most buyers' mind is not whether the property will be worth more or less in a month's time, it's that they want to live life and improve their lot. And so, yes, they will buy come what may; they may have to compromise and not get exactly the house they want at the price they want but they'll get something that is better than what they have now.

The real risks are doing what Brit1234 and the HPC crowd did; putting your life on hold, waiting in vain for 50% price drops and realising years later what a disastrous mistake you've made as you're now further away than ever from your ultimate goal.

MobileSaver

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Just to keep things clear and simple, I am saying that volumes are way down on the so called peak of the market, ... indicates that there is nothing but downside now for UK property.

Just to keep things clear and simple, which bit of "sales volumes have been steadily increasing since 2008" do you not understand?

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Lower transactions mean more people struggling to sell,

Except that for the last six years there has been a steadily increasing number of transactions so your contention is fundamentally flawed.

caronoel

MobileSaver wrote: »

Wait for what?

The real risks are doing what Brit1234 and the HPC crowd did; putting your life on hold, waiting in vain for 50% price drops and realising years later what a disastrous mistake you've made as you're now further away than ever from your ultimate goal.

Brit's gone very quiet these days.

I worry that he has given up on a 50% fall by Christmas and may finally have grown a spine and bought something.

I do hope the poor chap is OK

mayonnaise

caronoel wrote: »

Brit's gone very quiet these days.

I worry that he has given up on a 50% fall by Christmas and may finally have grown a spine and bought something.

I do hope the poor chap is OK

Brit is fine. He's spouting his nonsense on other sites now.

https://disqus.com/home/user/brit1664?tm_source=profile&utm_campaign=bridge

Doesn't show his face on here anymore because he's been utterly discredited. It was painful to watch (well not really ) seeing him become the laughing stock of the forum.

Crashy_Time

MobileSaver wrote: »

Just to keep things clear and simple, which bit of "sales volumes have been steadily increasing since 2008" do you not understand?



Except that for the last six years there has been a steadily increasing number of transactions so your contention is fundamentally flawed.

Just to be crystal clear, are you saying sales volumes now are higher or lower than the peak of the market in 2007?

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

Crashy_Time wrote: »

But sales volumes have collapsed since 2008? You do understand how that relates to the points I made....don`t you?

Just to be crystal clear, are you saying sales volumes now are higher or lower than the peak of the market in 2007?

Crashy will lie about figures or previous posts just as much as he lies about his HMO rental costs.... :rotfl:

MobileSaver

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Just to be crystal clear, are you saying sales volumes now are higher or lower than the peak of the market in 2007?

A peak by definition is the highest point and so they are obviously lower than they were then. I am not sure how much more crystal clear I could make it than my previous post...

MobileSaver wrote: »

They dropped off a cliff in 2008 and have been steadily rising ever since

So please can you explain simply and clearly how sales volumes steadily increasing for the last six years indicates "more people struggling to sell."

Jason74

lisyloo wrote: »

Hi Jason,

If someone was looking at buying and knowing that prices have at least "come off the boil" then why wouldn't they wait?
Fear of it not being a real change of direction? So "pent up" that buying must happen at all costs? Already part way into the process e.g. mortgage fees paid?

I'm not a serious buyer at the moment so easy to say when you're not putting your money where you mouth is, but logic would say to me that the risks are on the downside.

Thanks for the considered response to my post. I think there is absolutely an element of people being a bit more cautious when buying in my area, for exactly the reason you mention. When there was a frenzy, people were overlooking things that would normally have made them think twice, and paying more than they felt they should, just to avoid "missing out".

That frenzy came to an abrupt halt around May / June, and with that sense of "buyer panic" having subsided, prices are falling back a little, simply because people are no longe throwing silly money at anything just to get on board. You're right that in that scenario, the "risks are on the downside" because there is always the chance that the same herd momentum that drove prices up could drive them back down again.

But, while such a downward momentum is possible (and more plausible in my area than big rises imho), it's also unlikely. Others (notably mobile saver) have commented on the reasons why, and you've listed some of them yourself. Effectively, most people still want to own their own home, and we have a situation where interest rates are very low, the economy is (on paper at least) getting stronger, and the area is a 20 minute commute to central London. For the kind of downward momentum you describe to take hold, I think that one of those factors need to change.

That's certainly the position today, and pricing 5-10% under the rest of the market seems to almost guarantee a sale within a matter of a week or so. All the time that situation persists, it's hard to see a major drift downwards, even if prices have reached a point where significant rises are unlikely in the short term.

Crashy_Time

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

Crashy will lie about figures or previous posts just as much as he lies about his HMO rental costs.... :rotfl:

Ok, so as you are someone who tells the truth, are sales volumes now higher or lower than the peak of the market?