'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

Crashy_Time

MobileSaver wrote: »

A peak by definition is the highest point and so they are obviously lower than they were then. I am not sure how much more crystal clear I could make it than my previous post...



So please can you explain simply and clearly how sales volumes steadily increasing for the last six years indicates "more people struggling to sell."

More people are struggling to sell than at the peak of the market, when hardly anyone "struggled" to sell (because the Ponzi was being fuelled by masses of available credit)


Sales volumes clawing their way back up from a collapse point isn`t really indicative of a healthy market. However as prices drop we will see some volume returning across the UK.


You do acknowledge that many many people are struggling to sell their property don`t you?

Crashy_Time

Jason74 wrote: »

Thanks for the considered response to my post. I think there is absolutely an element of people being a bit more cautious when buying in my area, for exactly the reason you mention. When there was a frenzy, people were overlooking things that would normally have made them think twice, and paying more than they felt they should, just to avoid "missing out".

That frenzy came to an abrupt halt around May / June, and with that sense of "buyer panic" having subsided, prices are falling back a little, simply because people are no longe throwing silly money at anything just to get on board. You're right that in that scenario, the "risks are on the downside" because there is always the chance that the same herd momentum that drove prices up could drive them back down again.

But, while such a downward momentum is possible (and more plausible in my area than big rises imho), it's also unlikely. Others (notably mobile saver) have commented on the reasons why, and you've listed some of them yourself. Effectively, most people still want to own their own home, and we have a situation where interest rates are very low, the economy is (on paper at least) getting stronger, and the area is a 20 minute commute to central London. For the kind of downward momentum you describe to take hold, I think that one of those factors need to change.

That's certainly the position today, and pricing 5-10% under the rest of the market seems to almost guarantee a sale within a matter of a week or so. All the time that situation persists, it's hard to see a major drift downwards, even if prices have reached a point where significant rises are unlikely in the short term.

Low interest rates and bubble prices is the absolutely worst time to buy. The economy isn`t getting stronger in the real world, and you just assume that most people want to own their own home (many do, but not at any price, and many young people are just going to stay at home for the foreseeable it looks like, they won`t get mortgages when the crash comes even if they wanted them due to no job/low income/never had credit etc.) It is all downside for UK property from here IMO.

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Ok, so as you are someone who tells the truth, are sales volumes now higher or lower than the peak of the market?

Absolument, I always tell the truth.

Are sales volumes lower than the peak???? Does the word "peak" mean something different to you? The question is clearly imbecilic, have sales volumes increased YOY since the crash???

Generali

Crashy_Time wrote: »

The economy isn`t getting stronger in the real world

Yes it is. GDP is rising, unemployment is falling, employment is rising. By what metric is the economy not getting stronger?

lisyloo

the economy is (on paper at least) getting stronger

I have my doubts about how much of this is real.
GDP per capita isn't looking so good and neither are debt levels which is worrying because that's what got us in a mess in the first place.
Like yourself (Jason) I don't profess to have all the answers but I am sceptical about the strength of the recovery.
I'm genuinely glad if people's lives have improved though (including mine).

EDIT: jobs figures from the US look good.

MobileSaver

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Sales volumes clawing their way back up from a collapse point isn`t really indicative of a healthy market.

If six years of steadily increasing sales volumes and sales prices is not indicative of a healthy market then I don't know what is.

This is one of the key flaws in the HPC argument; rational people can show factual evidence that things are improving, HPCers simply ignore facts that don't support their viewpoint and instead rely on assertions with no basis in fact.

Crashy_Time wrote: »

The economy isn`t getting stronger in the real world,

Yes it is.

lisyloo wrote: »

I am sceptical about the strength of the recovery.

You may be sceptical about specific numbers being bandied around but are you genuinely sceptical that the economy is recovering even if only a little bit by little bit?

Even without all the key indicators published by the government, I only need to talk to all the builders/tradespeople down at my local pub and they're all booked up for months.

Crashy_Time

Generali wrote: »

Yes it is. GDP is rising, unemployment is falling, employment is rising. By what metric is the economy not getting stronger?

Try base interest rate for a start.

Generali

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Try base interest rate for a start.

That doesn't measure anything let alone a rate of change.

You don't have a clue, frankly. You are Graham Devon and I claim my five pounds.

Crashy_Time

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

Absolument, I always tell the truth.

Are sales volumes lower than the peak???? Does the word "peak" mean something different to you? The question is clearly imbecilic, have sales volumes increased YOY since the crash???

You still have not answered the question, a simple Yes or No will do. Present sales volumes obviously do not support the market, as there is all kinds of intervention going on? When this intervention ends or no longer works we have the "Tipping Point" - would you agree - Yes or No?

Crashy_Time

Generali wrote: »

That doesn't measure anything let alone a rate of change.

You don't have a clue, frankly. You are Graham Devon and I claim my five pounds.

You might need that five pounds, so you better grab it while you can. It is not what low base rate measures, it is what it indicates, i.e that the debt based economy is screwed.