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'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness
Comments
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House prices going up is good news for everyone. Long may it continue! I can't wait till my studio flat in Erith, Kent is worth £1m. Its for my pension. Mortgage apps and approvals are going through the roof. I may even give my two kids the flat but curses to the extortionate inheritance tax but I am sure when that tax needs to paid there will be many people bidding well over £1m to buy it.
:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::T:T:T:T
Feel better now0 -
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MobileSaver wrote: »Your point fails on two, er, points...
1) The stats shown on HPC's own site confirms that the number of people willing and able to buy has been steadily increasing since 2008.
2) Even if demand was decreasing it is only an issue if you have to sell and for most people that is not the case so they just stay put and sell later when the market picks up again.
I sincerely hope that you are a new convert to the HPC mantra and quickly realise that their entire being is fundamentally flawed. Some of the posters on there are simply liars and deserve everything they get but I'm sure that most were just naive and regret being taken in.
I genuinely feel sorry for the latter who put their lives on hold, didn't buy when they could and could now have been sitting on significant gains and be almost half-way through paying off a mortgage by now.
if you had bought a london property in april it would have had a higher asking price than today and would have achieved a higher percentage of that asking price than today.0 -
Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »the stats, which show house prices have steadily increased since 2008 are based on SOLD prices......
Do you understand that?
But sales volumes have collapsed since 2008? You do understand how that relates to the points I made....don`t you?0 -
MobileSaver wrote: »Your point fails on two, er, points...
1) The stats shown on HPC's own site confirms that the number of people willing and able to buy has been steadily increasing since 2008.
2) Even if demand was decreasing it is only an issue if you have to sell and for most people that is not the case so they just stay put and sell later when the market picks up again.
I sincerely hope that you are a new convert to the HPC mantra and quickly realise that their entire being is fundamentally flawed. Some of the posters on there are simply liars and deserve everything they get but I'm sure that most were just naive and regret being taken in.
I genuinely feel sorry for the latter who put their lives on hold, didn't buy when they could and could now have been sitting on significant gains and be almost half-way through paying off a mortgage by now.
But it is the people who HAVE TO/WANT TO sell that set the value of your house. I do feel sorry for people who don`t understand market dynamics.0 -
Crashy_Time wrote: »But sales volumes have collapsed since 2008? You do understand how that relates to the points I made....don`t you?
This is true. But it's also irrelevant. Transaction volumes are in many respects a red herring when talking about prices. What is relevant is the number of active sellers compared to active buyers, and how successful sellers are at achieving the prices that they''re asking for (measured by things like time to sell, % of asking price avceived etc.) .
I can only talk with any authority about London (and a fairly small portion of it at that), but in the areas I know well, all of those indicators have until recently been consistently positive over at least a two to three year period. It was interesting that picking up this trend and pointing it out in it's early stages actually earned me a ban from HPC (you haven't commented on my post relating to that btw . . .I wonder why?). Naturally, the observation was also shot down on HPC, with a poster called "Dances with Sheeple" immediately posting a patronising reply stating that others would soon be along to correct my error. But time has sadly (to me as someone who considers HPI bad) proved my view to be accurate.
Now to bring the thread completely back on topic, there's no doubt my local market has changed quite dramatically in recent Months, and this seems quite common in much of London listening to posters on here who know other areas. But looking at what's going on around me, I think we're looking at a small correction following a market overshoot, rather than a meaningful tipping point. Certainly, as of today, if you want to sell a house in my area in a week, just price it 5-10% under other similar properties. If that changes, then we can talk about a meaningful tipping point . But as of today , we're nowhere near that place.0 -
Crashy_Time wrote: »But sales volumes have collapsed since 2008? You do understand how that relates to the points I made....don`t you?
Um, no, sales volumes have been steadily rising since 2008 which is why your point makes no sense whatsoever.Crashy_Time wrote: »But it is the people who HAVE TO/WANT TO sell that set the value of your house. I do feel sorry for people who don`t understand market dynamics.
Fact 1: Sales volumes are rising
Fact 2: Sales prices are rising
Sadly it sounds like it's too late to save you from the HPC brain-washing. The indisputable fact is that HPC called it wrong when they set up their forum, if you had ignored their dire crash predictions you would now be much better off financially.
The reality is that HPC promoted what they wanted to happen rather than any well-reasoned predictions based on research and solid facts and figures. The upper echelons knew that their viewpoint didn't stand up to scrutiny and so their answer... new posters joining the debate were heavily censored - if there was even a whiff of a contrary view in your post then your posts simply never appeared (the so-called "stealth ban".)
Even if you don't understand market dynamics, even if you think HPI is the devil incarnate, you must realise something is seriously amiss when anyone with an opposing view is suppressed.Every generation blames the one before...
Mike + The Mechanics - The Living Years0 -
Crashy_Time wrote: »But sales volumes have collapsed since 2008? You do understand how that relates to the points I made....don`t you?
Even with a lower volume of sales, prices still increased. Must mean a lot of pent up demand exists, which way does that suggest prices are likely to go in the future? Do keep up crashaholic.0 -
Crashy_Time wrote: »But sales volumes have collapsed since 2008?
If you stick a question mark at the end of a statement, it appears to everyone else that you don't believe what you are stating.'In nature, there are neither rewards nor punishments - there are Consequences.'0 -
I think we're looking at a small correction following a market overshoot, rather than a meaningful tipping point. Certainly, as of today, if you want to sell a house in my area in a week, just price it 5-10% under other similar properties. If that changes, then we can talk about a meaningful tipping point . But as of today , we're nowhere near that place.
Hi Jason,
If someone was looking at buying and knowing that prices have at least "come off the boil" then why wouldn't they wait?
Fear of it not being a real change of direction? So "pent up" that buying must happen at all costs? Already part way into the process e.g. mortgage fees paid?
I'm not a serious buyer at the moment so easy to say when you're not putting your money where you mouth is, but logic would say to me that the risks are on the downside.0
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