'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

Jason74

Crashy_Time wrote: »

This housing forum seems to have the same half dozen idiots just jumping on anything that challenges never ending HPI, very disappointing for what must be one of the best known websites in the UK? The debate at HPC is much more informative, and there are plenty of Bullish views (well a few ) on display, but lets face it, who is Bullish in this debt saturated environment? IMO only those who have made a one way bet on never ending HPI. They are not really Bullish, just hoping against hope that the inevitable doesn`t happen.

I wouldn't agree with this at all. The bullish posters (with one notable exception, and I'm not talking about Hamish) all back up their views with an element of evidence and analysis. You may not agree with them, but they have come to a reasoned view as to why they see things as they do.

More to the point, there is a broad spectrum of views on here, from the extreme bulls, to very bearish posters such as Graham. Bullish posters are in the majority yes, but people are able to post and debate regardless of their views, and nobody gets banned simply for an opinion contrary to the norm.

Contrast that with HPC, where it really is the case that posters are effectively only allowed to contribute if they have a bearish outlook. I actually used to post their occasionally,but got banned for no apparent reason. My last five posts (all rom november 2012) are reproduced below so people can see if these are the type of posts that warrant a ban from an "informative" form that supports arange of views
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On a thread entitled "Housing Market Collapse Can't Be Far Off" (in November 2012)

Where in the country are you out of interest ?. Certainly in my corner of South London, there seems no sign of any meaningful drop off. Prices are (to my amazement) actually creeping up, and anything remotely sensibly priced (and by senible, I mean relative to what else is on offer locally, rather than what you or I would consider sensible) is selling relatively quickly.No real opportunity at all for bargain hunting at the moment here sadly. ____________________________________________________

On a thread entitled Prices Will Never Go Down In London. Will They? (also Nov 2012, in response to being asked where I was in London)

Around Crystal Palace / South Norwood Borders (basically the area immediately around Norwood lakes if you know that part of the world). Prices probably back at or even a little past 2007 peaks, and anything (relatively) sensibly priced is shifting quickly. We're relatively fortunate, being Mortgage free in a relatively big 2 bed masionette, so it's a "would like to" move situation rather than a "need to". We also have an adequate deposit saved in cash, so don't need to sell to buy. Thinking about a family would like a third bedroom and a garden, but looking unlikely at this stage .

Still, we're in a decent position in the greater scheme of things, so probably a case of just sitting tight and seeing what happens. It's the people who can't get on the ladder at all, or who are trapped in properties that really are inadequate for their needs that I feel sorry for.

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On a thread entitled "Croydon" (Discussing the area as you'd expect)

I'd definitely agree with those who suggest that the problems are overstated, I live in the apparently "bad" north of the Borough, on the border of Crystal Palace / South Norwood. I'm a 15 minute walk from Crystal Palace Station, and from there can get to Victoria, London Bridge or Canary wharf in a little over 20 minutes.I've got four good sized parks within a 15 minute walk, with one pretty much next door. The Triangle at Crystal Palace has lots of nice independent restaurants, and some of the schools are fast improving.I've lived in my current property just over ten years, and have only has one moment in that time where I've felt event remotely uncomfortable in my local area.

Sure, it doesn't have the trendy appeal of some of the spots a little bit further into London, and it remains a little rough around the edges. But I have a spacious and comfortable 2 bedroom maisonette, and the value of it probably wouldn't buy a studio flat in some of the more fashionable areas no more than 3 or 4 miles away. That said, the character of the local area can change quite dramatically within a few streets, so you have to know the area well to get yourself in a nice spot. There are roads witha mile or so of me that you'd have to pay me to live in.

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On a thread entitled Prices Will Never Go Down In London. Will They?

The short answer sadly is no. Am trying to make the second step in one of London's cheaper areas at the at the moment, and it's frankly bonkers. Looked at a House last week that was on at about 15% more than two similar houses sold for right at the top of the 2007 peak. Was OK, but not quite what we were after. Thought we'd sit back and see what happened with it . . . .it went under offer within a week of going on the market, and in our local market, unfortunately thats not unusual in that respect.

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On a thread entitled "Balham SW12, Hydefarm" (discussing that area)

Some interesting stuff here, and much in the post that I would agree with (especially the bit about lenders still falling over themselves to throw money at "quality" borrowers). But I had to pick up on the bit I've quoted. Belham [is/b] a "slightly edgy blue collar area turned good". Indeed, apart from the slightly, that's probably the best description of the place I've ever heard. I grew up in South London, and my Grandmother lived between Balham and Clapham South Stations (my Mum actually grew up in that flat), so we used to visit a lot. As late as the early 90s, that neck of the woods was still very much considered an out and out dodgy area that you avoided if you could, and while it has come up a long way since then, there's still no comparison between somewhere like Balham, and places like Barnes, Putney and Wimbledon (and I say that as someone who is regularly in Balham for work).

If anything, I'd say relative to other parts of South London, Balham is probably overpriced if you were looking at things on a cost v niceness scale. Not as excessive as Peckham (which really is crazy money given what the area is like) but more expensive than it should be (even allowing for silly prices in London generally). It remains imho a long way from being something that could be described as "prime SW London"

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I'd be interested in people's thoughts as to whether those were the kind of posts that could be considered offensive, or whether banning someone for such posts is more suggestive of a forum that only tolerates a very narrow range of views.

ruggedtoast

The forum hpc.co.uk in tendentious to say the least.

It is also ruled by a succession of motley and disreputable rogues, every one a scoundrel to a man and each more mendacious than the last.

The Masked Tulip.



This denizen of the discussion swamp sneaks about threads with the illest intent to his fellow man. He wishes nothing less than the mass unemployment of most of the UK to further his dream of owning outright a bedsit in Swansea town centre.

Bruce Banner:



What can be said about Bruce that has not been put into print? He rents from a fictional landlord who pays him to settle. Her sits on a piles of gold and glittering jewels stolen from orphans while he directs his naive young acolytes to the crashing rocks of renting destruction. Then he laughs as their mouldering bones sink to the the ocean floor to be picked clean by buy to let piranhas.

Any voice of dissent is immediately and mercilessly crushed.

The Killer Bunny:



As the bunny has been on television several times he should be one of the more credible voices of the house price elite. Sadly he has been driven utterly and compellingly insane by an eternal wait for house price crash that now totals 700 years.

He haunts the world of the living, screaming like a banshee, his spirit trapped in its cage of bunny flesh for all eternity until the curse can eventually be broken by a bona fide house price crash. Which will never happen. Thus trapped in his earthly prison until the end of time, the bunny subsidises his pecuniary catastrophe by charging people for terrible financial advice.

He is banned from approaching any nearer than 500 metres to BBC headquarters.

The forum hpc.co.uk is not a place for decent folk.

Crashy_Time

padington wrote: »

Oh I don't have to, I could just rent it out to those that can't afford a loan for enough to travel the world for the rest of my life.

A finer point you never quite understood.

.. but you can't say we didn't try to help you.

Good luck with that :money:

Crashy_Time

MobileSaver wrote: »

Just to be clear, this is the HPC forum created in October 2003 to discuss the "biggest economic boom bust events in living memory?"

Since HPC was created average house prices have risen from £133,903 to £186,544, a 39% increase. Could HPC have called it more wrong? HPC is more misinformation than information so believe what you read there at your peril.

Do you know what has happened to sales volumes in that time?

MobileSaver

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Do you know what has happened to sales volumes in that time?

They dropped off a cliff in 2008 and have been steadily rising ever since?

I'm not sure of the relevance of that to the raison d'etre of HPC? Or is this copying Bubble&Squeak's tactic whereby when HPC said there would be a house price crash they actually meant of sales volumes not sales prices? :rotfl:

Percy1983

ruggedtoast wrote: »

Donnie Darko!

Crashy_Time

MobileSaver wrote: »

They dropped off a cliff in 2008 and have been steadily rising ever since?

I'm not sure of the relevance of that to the raison d'etre of HPC? Or is this copying Bubble&Squeak's tactic whereby when HPC said there would be a house price crash they actually meant of sales volumes not sales prices? :rotfl:

The point is that there isn`t much point in having your house "go up" 140% if there is no one willing or able to buy it off you :rotfl:


I have a guitar which Eric Clapton is supposed to have looked at once, across a crowded room. This means (to me) that it is easily worth 50k, but unfortunately no one wants to give me 50k for it .......
:T

MobileSaver

Crashy_Time wrote: »

The point is that there isn`t much point in having your house "go up" 140% if there is no one willing or able to buy it off you

Your point fails on two, er, points...

1) The stats shown on HPC's own site confirms that the number of people willing and able to buy has been steadily increasing since 2008.

2) Even if demand was decreasing it is only an issue if you have to sell and for most people that is not the case so they just stay put and sell later when the market picks up again.

I sincerely hope that you are a new convert to the HPC mantra and quickly realise that their entire being is fundamentally flawed. Some of the posters on there are simply liars and deserve everything they get but I'm sure that most were just naive and regret being taken in.

I genuinely feel sorry for the latter who put their lives on hold, didn't buy when they could and could now have been sitting on significant gains and be almost half-way through paying off a mortgage by now.

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

Crashy_Time wrote: »

The point is that there isn`t much point in having your house "go up" 140% if there is no one willing or able to buy it off you :rotfl:


I have a guitar which Eric Clapton is supposed to have looked at once, across a crowded room. This means (to me) that it is easily worth 50k, but unfortunately no one wants to give me 50k for it .......
:T

the stats, which show house prices have steadily increased since 2008 are based on SOLD prices......

Do you understand that?

officeuk

House prices going up is good news for everyone. Long may it continue! I can't wait till my studio flat in Erith, Kent is worth £1m. Its for my pension. Mortgage apps and approvals are going through the roof. I may even give my two kids the flat but curses to the extortionate inheritance tax but I am sure when that tax needs to paid there will be many people bidding well over £1m to buy it.

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::T:T:T:T