'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

wotsthat

lisyloo wrote: »

Personally I don't see it as odd.
There is very definitely a change in direction here.
This is going to bring about (if not already) a strong change in sentiment.
Anyone previous thinking "better buy or I'll get priced out" is now going to think "I should wait" which will have the snowball effect in the opposite direction, so it certainly has the potential to be totally significant.

That's not I thought was odd. If someone posts a graph after saying prices have fallen for the last two months wouldn't you expect the graph to show that?

lisyloo wrote: »

The key point about "they rose" is that the +8% figure is backward looking, so no it's not terribly relevant to the very significant change of direction.

You're doing it now and assuming there is/ was / will be a significant change of direction - where does that confidence come from? Surely not a single MoM figure from Nationwide when every other index shows prices have risen?

lisyloo wrote: »

Of course backward looking YOY figures will be positive for a little while.

Could be positive for a long time if either a) talk of a significant change of direction is premature or b) we're seeing a moderation in HPI rather than falls.

Crashy_Time

wotsthat wrote: »

You've been holding that thought since 1997.

A crash, when it happens (and it will), can only make your situation less worse rather than better and yet you still persist in asserting you can confidently forecast the direction of the housing market despite nearly two decades of evidence to the contrary. Knowing your luck prices will probably go up by another 25% before then crashing by 15% - you'll still attempt to call that a victory.

:rotfl: Did todays drop in house prices annoy you wotsthat?

Bubble_and_Squeak

wotsthat wrote: »

That's not I thought was odd. If someone posts a graph after saying prices have fallen for the last two months wouldn't you expect the graph to show that?



You're doing it now and assuming there is/ was / will be a significant change of direction - where does that confidence come from? Surely not a single MoM figure from Nationwide when every other index shows prices have risen?



Could be positive for a long time if either a) talk of a significant change of direction is premature or b) we're seeing a moderation in HPI rather than falls.

don't nationwide have a tendency to revise down their MoM figures on the sly?

Crashy_Time

fordcapri2000 wrote: »

So what!!

What is to you if people want to try an predict house price falls. why do you spend every minute of each and every working day/month/year getting upset about something that really is no big deal to you.

Personally I get really emotive and worked up about ISIS or child/animal/elderly abuse.

So what if people get it wrong, so what if people are making a big mistake in trying to predict an unpredictable market, so what if someone wants something cheaper for whatever reason that might be..

I find it more troubling that there is someone like you who has such an uncontrollable obsessive hatred of what are quite an innocent group of people who are dellusional at worst, where it leads to stalking and the actual googling and facebook stalking in the hope of getting even more dirt to vindicate their own disturbing behaviour.

Anyway Dude, good luck in yet another full day of putting those nasty people in there place who want cheaper houses or shock horror, might be trying to articulate what they believe to be true.

I assume you mean the bull posters on here and certain sections of the public? Anyone who thinks their house price is going to improve from here, with the fundamentals we now have is not delusional, they are certifiable! Boris is banging on about the "Ever changing London skyline" with a brick in his hand at conference today, it is beyond parody, and yes, a tipping point has been reached IMO.

Bubble_and_Squeak

crashy_time wrote: »

i assume you mean the bull posters on here and certain sections of the public? Anyone who thinks their house price is going to improve from here, with the fundamentals we now have is not delusional, they are certifiable! Boris is banging on about the "ever changing london skyline" with a brick in his hand at conference today, it is beyond parody, and yes, a tipping point has been reached imo.

yay!
Crashys back!

Crashy_Time

Good call of mine I think, bumping this thread. Bye for now chaps, I`m sure plenty of the HPC delusional people will be dropping in as this mess unravels. :money:

chucknorris

Crashy_Time wrote: »

:rotfl: Did todays drop in house prices annoy you wotsthat?

Why do you think that a fall in today's house prices would annoy him? Is he about to sell a property? If he isn't, I don't see why it might annoy him, even if he was about to sell, he may be trading up (so paying less for more). The value doesn't particularly matter to most current owners for most of the time, it only matters when you sell (or perhaps remortgage).

Crashy_Time

chucknorris wrote: »

Why do you think that a fall in today's house prices would annoy him? Is he about to sell a property? If he isn't, I don't see why it might annoy him, even if he was about to sell, he may be trading up (so paying less for more). The value doesn't particularly matter to most current owners for most of the time, it only matters when you sell (or perhaps remortgage).

Could be, but why was he on my post like a hungry shark who lurks in the shallows of this forum all day? Why would his smart money making decisions need to be interrupted to respond to someone on the internet who he has deluded himself into thinking has lived in an HMO since 1997? :rotfl:

chucknorris

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Could be, but why was he on my post like a hungry shark who lurks in the shallows of this forum all day? Why would his smart money making decisions need to be interrupted to respond to someone on the internet who he has deluded himself into thinking has lived in an HMO since 1997? :rotfl:

This is a forum, responding to posts is normal, I doubt that he is on this forum all day, like me, he probably just checks threads for a few mins at various times of the day.


You omitted to answer my question about why you thought that he may be annoyed? I suspect that you imagine that owners are continually monitoring house prices, I don't think that they do. I casually check about once a year, earlier this year I was surprised that our property value had surged, nice to see, but it wasn't critical, it might be in about 6-12 years when we may think about selling. I'm more focused on share prices because I have recently moved from cash to shares and intend to continue that process.

lisyloo

Surely not a single MoM figure from Nationwide when every other index shows prices have risen?

I agree it could be premature, but there has been various other bit of evidentce - some anecdotal, some not, building a picture, so it's not just one single MoM figure.
I do agree though that more evidence is required to say for sure that the market is on the turn.
Can we agree that there are indications that the market may be on the turn right now? The jurys out but the body of evidence is getting bigger?

Personally I'm not going to get too picky over one graph when we require a body of evidence over many months, so I think you're not really making much of valid point there.
I reckon most fols are intelligence enough to intepret the context of what's displayed so I don't think anyone is being misled.