'We've reached a tipping point' Signs of house price weakness

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn

Crashy_Time wrote: »

You still have not answered the question, a simple Yes or No will do. Present sales volumes obviously do not support the market, as there is all kinds of intervention going on? When this intervention ends or no longer works we have the "Tipping Point" - would you agree - Yes or No?

No. I disagree.

You asked an illogical question before, yes sales volumes are less than peak, but they have been growing YOY since..... do you understand?

clara75

I don't get all this talk about house prices potentially going down, are all of you investors?

If you buy sensibly it's almost impossible to lose money.

Buy for your family, in a good area, buy affordable, buy early in life, with a view to keep the property at least 5 years, ideally for longer... and have at least an idea or better a defined plan B re: what to do in case things go pear-shaped at a personal level (divorce, losing job, illness, etc).

The property market goes up and down and up and down again, but always up in the long run

Crashy_Time

clara75 wrote: »

I don't get all this talk about house prices potentially going down, are all of you investors?

If you buy sensibly it's almost impossible to lose money.

Buy for your family, in a good area, buy affordable, buy early in life, with a view to keep the property at least 5 years, ideally for longer... and have at least an idea or better a defined plan B re: what to do in case things go pear-shaped at a personal level (divorce, losing job, illness, etc).

The property market goes up and down and up and down again, but always up in the long run

Mmmm...this has been the biggest property bubble (I prefer Ponzi, as that describes better what was happening) of all time, it is not just going to unwind nicely and then gently inflate again, we are in uncharted waters. Many people thought property always went up, they didn`t have a plan B.

Crashy_Time

Jack_Johnson_the_acorn wrote: »

No. I disagree.

You asked an illogical question before, yes sales volumes are less than peak, but they have been growing YOY since..... do you understand?

So, we agree that volumes have collapsed since the peak of the biggest housing bubble in history, and they have ticked back up a bit with massive government/central bank intervention. What is the point you are trying to make?

lisyloo

You may be sceptical about specific numbers being bandied around but are you genuinely sceptical that the economy is recovering even if only a little bit by little bit?

Even without all the key indicators published by the government, I only need to talk to all the builders/tradespeople down at my local pub and they're all booked up for months.

Well I'm not entrenched in any position - which I happen to think is a good thing :-) but I am concerned that when I look at GDP per capita.
Yes GDP has gone up, so has the population.
Yes builders are busy - what's that based on? current house prices? which are based on promises that people can pay pay back even larger levels of debt.

I'm really glad that things are getting better (DH was out of a job in 2013 so I know the effect it has on individuals and families), I'm certainly uncomfortable about the part that based on rising house prices, because that's money people don't yet have i.e. on the never never.

clara75

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Mmmm...this has been the biggest property bubble (I prefer Ponzi, as that describes better what was happening) of all time, it is not just going to unwind nicely and then gently inflate again, we are in uncharted waters. Many people thought property always went up, they didn`t have a plan B.

I've been hearing that since 2005 when I bought my first property, a shoe box (in a different country but with similar 'bubble' talks). I'm now on my third property and managed to make some decent money in the process - as a home-owner, not as an investor. No defined plan B... what doesn't kill you makes you stronger

In_For_A_Penny_2

Crashy_Time wrote: »

Present sales volumes obviously do not support the market

Sales volumes clearly do support the market or else prices would be falling. They are not.

ruggedtoast

Crashy_Time wrote: »

You might need that five pounds, so you better grab it while you can. It is not what low base rate measures, it is what it indicates, i.e that the debt based economy is screwed.

The debt based economy has been screwed since it was invented in the 1700s. Nevertheless it benefits the 1% so it isn't going anywhere any time soon.

You may notice that every time there is a cyclical crash it isn't rich people that absorb the pain.

Putting your life on hold while you stockpile gold (falling in value), silver (ouch), euros (uh oh) so that you can jump in on the upswing is a good old hpc meme and it worked for a few of them. A few of them who timed it right in 2010 and are now long gone. I.e. the ones who arent still there 4 years later moaning.

The fact is that for most of us we need to get on and live and dont have decades to wait out the British housing market.

Your argument was great in 2007 but no one has any faith now.

So far by buying I have saved £44,000 in rent, not including unexpected increases or having to pay to move after yet another Section 21. I have also gained a bit on my property, accepted the fact I will most likely have to do a 9-5 for the rest of my life like almost every other British person before me, and paid down a bit of the mortgage. It's not paradise but it'll do.

Bubble_and_Squeak

In_For_A_Penny wrote: »

Sales volumes clearly do support the market or else prices would be falling. They are not.

they are in london

Bubble_and_Squeak

Generali wrote: »

Yes it is. GDP is rising, unemployment is falling, employment is rising. By what metric is the economy not getting stronger?

GDP is around the level it was at the peak
employment has increased
do the math