Effect of Scottish Independence Vote

planteria

i would have thought that Scotland could do extremely well as an independent country, outside of the EU. as could England.

but i don't think that the Scots will vote to leave the UK (&EU) and either way the UK will be better outside of the EU.

it would be interesting if we finished up with England and Wales outside of the EU, and Scotland in the EU....the Scottish-England border will be some fun:doh:

TCA

atush wrote: »

For a start, they would not be accepted if they did not want the euro. And they seem to want to keep sterling.

But it's ok for the UK and Denmark to opt out? Granted it's a big concession but it's not impossible. You nay-sayers are talking as if there'll be a mass unwillingness to retain Scotland as EU members under any circumstances. The SNP are saying that they would not join the ERM, as they would have to do for 2 years as a precursor to using the Euro (under the right economic circumstances), but I just wonder if Salmond's mob would bend on this if it came to it, to get a foot in the door.

ColdIron wrote: »

If Scotland wants to stand alone it needs to grow a pair, can it not ask the question itself? Are there not Scottish MEPs?

No it can't, for formal consideration and response, only an EU member state can ask the question. In Scotland's case that's the UK government.

As for Scottish Groats, I think they'll be linked to the UK pound. Or English pound as you'd probably prefer it called. It wouldn't be Groats anyway, it would be the Haggis.

planteria wrote: »

but i don't think that the Scots will vote to leave the UK (&EU) and either way the UK will be better outside of the EU.

it would be interesting if we finished up with England and Wales outside of the EU, and Scotland in the EU....the Scottish-England border will be some fun:doh:

A week ago I would have said a No vote was almost a foregone conclusion, but the latest statements from Osborne and the other unionists on the currency, rightly or wrongly, have come over as dictatorial. Although many people see the SNP white paper as a wishlist, the negativity and lack of alternative vision from the No campaign and this latest batch of "you cannot...." is swaying those very same people. Only talking with regard to people I know.

As for ever having border controls along Hadrian's Wall, I'd like to think common sense would prevail and the example of the common travel area with the Republic of Ireland would be followed.

Archi_Bald

planteria wrote:

it would be interesting if we finished up with England and Wales outside of the EU, and Scotland in the EU....the Scottish-England border will be some fun:doh:

Border controls is an interesting one. I saw a very informative and balanced report today on BBC News 24(*) about the top 10 issues surrounding the scottish independence referendum.

Ms Sturgeon asserted that there won't be any border controls between Scotland and England.

If she says so, it must be true.

(*)sadly not available on iPlayer, but I am sure they will repeat it at some stage soon.

ColdIron

Scotland cannot use the pound without fiscal union with the UK or the Euro without being a member of the Eurozone which, like the UK, it is not

Sure it could peg the groat to the pound but why would anybody believe they had the same value?
They could even use Sterling for transactions like Zimbabwe, Cuba or Argentina use the dollar but that's like driving a car without a steering wheel and hardly the basis of a sound economy

What happens when Scottish Fiscal Policy collides with BoE Monetary Policy?

What happens if the BoE raises interest rates to combat inflation at a time of Scottish mortgage fragility?
What happens if the BoE wants to embark on another round of QE or devalue the pound?

How would Scotland raise money in the Bond Markets for spending or infrastructure? They surely couldn't issue gilts

TCA

Archi_Bald wrote: »

Border controls is an interesting one. I saw a very informative and balanced report today on BBC News 24(*) about the top 10 issues surrounding the scottish independence

Thanks. I'll check it out. The BBC isn't getting a great reputation for balanced coverage so far in Scotland. As far as I see.

By the way, you've attributed planetaria's quote above to me.

ColdIron, I happen to agree with the fact that retaining sterling doesn't give the full fiscal control that independence should. As for your "what happens...." questions, I'm presuming your own answers would spell disaster for Scotland but not necessarily rUK? That being the case, why would rUK not accept a currency union and keep the billions that Scotland contributes to the sterling balance of payments and avoid having to trade with what would be its second biggest trading partner in a foreign currency?

What are the downsides for rUK of a fiscal union, assuming the BofE would largely still be operating in their interests? Genuine question.

TCA

Archi_Bald wrote: »

Ms Sturgeon asserted that there won't be any border controls between Scotland and England.

If she says so, it must be true. .

I know you're jesting at her assertions but surely that's just a common sense approach? If border controls were likely and necessary, why don't we currently have them with Ireland?

CLAPTON

TCA wrote: »

What are the downsides for rUK of a fiscal union, assuming the BofE would largely still be operating in their interests? Genuine question.

what do you mean 'fiscal union'?
in economics 'fiscal policy' means tax rates, government spending , budget deficit, borrowing etc


as already said there is nothing to stop Scotland using sterling but it will have to accept that interest rates will be set in London and that deposits in Scottish banks and financial institutions will not be guaranted by London (i.e. will have no deposit guarantee)

TCA

CLAPTON wrote: »

what do you mean 'fiscal union'?
in economics 'fiscal policy' means tax rates, government spending , budget deficit, borrowing etc

as already said there is nothing to stop Scotland using sterling but it will have to accept that interest rates will be set in London and that deposits in Scottish banks and financial institutions will not be guaranted by London (i.e. will have no deposit guarantee)

Sorry, that should have read currency union.

I accept the disadvantages for Scotland as you mentioned. But what are the disadvantages for the rest of the UK?

Archi_Bald

TCA wrote: »

By the way, you've attributed planetaria's quote above to me.

Apologies, not sure how I managed to mess this up. Have corrected it now.

Archi_Bald

TCA wrote: »

but surely that's just a common sense approach? If border controls were likely and necessary, why don't we currently have them with Ireland?

Well, not necessarily. Assume Scotland is in the EU, and rUK isn't - a likely scenario if you listen to the respective politicians. So anyone from the EU can arrive in Scotland, and from there make it to rUK without any checks. Meaning the soverignty of rUK would be violated with the active support of a foreign nation.

Clearly this is not an option, regardless of how simple Ms Sturgeon thinks the borders can be. She has - not for the first time - not thought things through, or she is deliberately filtering out anything that sounds remotely more complex.