Effect of Scottish Independence Vote

Archi_Bald

TCA wrote: »

What are the downsides for rUK of a [STRIKE]fiscal[/STRIKE] currency union, assuming the BofE would largely still be operating in their interests? Genuine question.

Have you seen the open letter from Sir Nicholas Macpherson? Summarises the whole matter quite succinctly, IMO.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/279460/Sir_Nicholas_Macpherson_-_Scotland_and_a_currency_union.pdf

Archi_Bald

CLAPTON wrote: »

as already said there is nothing to stop Scotland using sterling

there is. As publicised by George Osborne, Danny Alexander and Ed Balls earlier this week.

TCA

Archi_Bald wrote: »

Have you seen the open letter from Sir Nicholas Macpherson? Summarises the whole matter quite succinctly, IMO.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/279460/Sir_Nicholas_Macpherson_-_Scotland_and_a_currency_union.pdf

Thanks. I've read it but unlike you I'm not convinced. I see the big hole in the sterling balance of payments to be far worse for rUK than the "what ifs" put forward by Macpherson. I also noted if an independent Scotland committed to a longer-term currency union, his advice might be different.

planteria

Archi_Bald wrote: »

Well, not necessarily. Assume Scotland is in the EU, and rUK isn't - a likely scenario if you listen to the respective politicians. So anyone from the EU can arrive in Scotland, and from there make it to rUK without any checks. Meaning the soverignty of rUK would be violated with the active support of a foreign nation.

Clearly this is not an option, regardless of how simple Ms Sturgeon thinks the borders can be. She has - not for the first time - not thought things through, or she is deliberately filtering out anything that sounds remotely more complex.

i think you can assume the latter. she isn't stupid enough to not even make the effort to understand, is she?

atush

TCA wrote: »

But it's ok for the UK and Denmark to opt out?

Yes, that was a concession won at the time.

Now, any countries that want to join, must take the euro.

ColdIron

TCA wrote: »

As for your "what happens...." questions, I'm presuming your own answers would spell disaster for Scotland but not necessarily rUK?

For Scotland certainly, think Greece without Germany's 'willingness' to bail them out

But these are questions that oily Al should be answering to the people of Scotland but will not or more likely cannot. Perhaps he just wants a mandate for change and will sort out those pesky details later but without credible answers to such fundamental questions he will fail. I believe the Scots have already seen through him and predict a convincing No. I have a cheeky £100 on at Betfair

That being the case, why would rUK not accept a currency union and keep the billions that Scotland contributes to the sterling balance of payments

If the UK had a currency union and kept those billions it wouldn't be much of a separate Scotland and hardly distinguishable to the current arrangements

A currency union cannot exist in isolation, it requires so much more. The UK is happy to cross subsidise Cornwall etc as does the Federal United States with its vowel states because their destinies and responsibilities are bound together in a political union, something that the separatists want to dissolve

If the Scots operate a different fiscal policy to the UK why should we pick up the tab? It would be completely unacceptable to the UK

and avoid having to trade with what would be its second biggest trading partner in a foreign currency?

The UK deals with every trading partner in a foreign currency

What are the downsides for rUK of a fiscal union, assuming the BofE would largely still be operating in their interests? Genuine question.

Without political union? Not much but it would be completely unacceptable to the Scottish and as I say you cannot have one without the other for very long

It's a hypothetical question though in the face of opposition from Osborne, Alexander, Carney even Ed Balls and believe me when I say I find it deeply disturbing to be on the same side of an argument as him

planteria

TCA wrote: »

...You nay-sayers are talking as if there'll be a mass unwillingness to retain Scotland as EU members under any circumstances....

not at all, in either respect. there is no retaining to be done. Scotland would have to apply for membership. refusal, as things stand [with Spain, The Basques, Catalonia, Kosovo etc.] is certain. and there is no "mass" required. acceptance of a new nation has to be unanimous. 1 country can block entry of Scotland. and there most assuredly be 1 country prepared to do so.

if accepted, as it should be, that Scotland cannot just 'stay' in the EU, i am intrigued by the apparent determination of Scots to join the EU. why not sail their own ship entirely?

TCA

Archi_Bald wrote: »

Well, not necessarily. Assume Scotland is in the EU, and rUK isn't - a likely scenario if you listen to the respective politicians. So anyone from the EU can arrive in Scotland, and from there make it to rUK without any checks. Meaning the soverignty of rUK would be violated with the active support of a foreign nation.

Which is exactly how it works with the Republic of Ireland. Why are you and anyone else putting forward this argument, not shouting for a border between Northern Ireland and ROI?

planteria

TCA wrote: »

I know you're jesting at her assertions but surely that's just a common sense approach? If border controls were likely and necessary, why don't we currently have them with Ireland?

because The United Kingdom and The Republic of Ireland are both EU member states.

CLAPTON

Archi_Bald wrote: »

there is. As publicised by George Osborne, Danny Alexander and Ed Balls earlier this week.

There is nothing to stop a scottish person from
-receiving pounds as part of his salary
-spending pounds

as long as his employer is happy to pay him in pounds
and the shop keeper is willing to accept pounds


however, this does not give scotland has say in what the BoE base rate is nor does it mean that the BoE is lender of last resort