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The 2014 HAMISH MCTAVISH Predictions Thread
Comments
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HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Well, 2013 turned out to be a pretty good year, and the 2013 predictions weren't far off the mark.
Results here....
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/4368647
Now on to the 2014 predictions.
Broadly a year of stronger economic recovery.
1. House prices will rise. Indices will range from +6 to +11
2. FTB numbers will increase as HTB continues to enable more people to buy, and the wider lending markets continue to recover.
3. Inflation will remain in a range between 1.5% and 2.5% for most of the year.
4. Unemployment will fall to around 7%
5. Interest rates will end the year at or below 1%
6. Mortgage lending for new purchases will increase markedly and average around 70k per month for the year
7. Rents will continue to increase at a similar rate to 2013 and reach another new record high
8. The north will see increasing HPI as the gap to London/SE starts to close
9. Scotland will vote to remain in the UK, but it will be closer than the polls currently suggest thanks to a misguided blossoming of nationalism around the Commonwealth games
10. Economic recovery will strengthen with GDP +3.5% for the year
11. Politics: The Lib Dems will start to distance themselves from the Tories politically, The tories will pander to the right to try and prevent a UKIP resurgence, UKIP will do well at the Euro elections and then their 'protest vote' support will fade rapidly by year end as minds are focused on the real election that matters. As the economy recovers the gap between tories and labour will narrow.
12. Average wages will increase by more than they did this year
13. Private sector wage rises will match CPI by year end
Credit where credit is due: not a bad set of predictions there Hamish.
All of them (other than 8) were pretty much bang on the money.
Hope the good news keeps rolling in 20150 -
Credit where credit is due: not a bad set of predictions there Hamish.
All of them (other than 8) were pretty much bang on the money.
Hope the good news keeps rolling in 2015
Hamish is always bang on the money.
Any chance of a 2015 predictions thread, Hamish?Don't blame me, I voted Remain.0 -
mayonnaise wrote: »Any chance of a 2015 predictions thread, Hamish?
Yes, there's one every year.... Working on it now.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Yes, there's one every year.... Working on it now.
Nice. I would say it's a tougher call this year with a higher chance of big things making big waves. Not an easy task.Proudly voted remain. A global union of countries is the only way to commit global capital to the rule of law.0 -
I would say it's a tougher call this year with a higher chance of big things making big waves..
I would agree.
2015 thread is here.....
https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/5144523“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
Hamish what're your thoughts re east London zones 4-6 prices? I've kept an eye on them in the last 6 weeks and they're doing very strange things!0
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strawberries1 wrote: »Hamish what're your thoughts re east London zones 4-6 prices? I've kept an eye on them in the last 6 weeks and they're doing very strange things!
No idea I'm afraid, don't follow London areas closely at all.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »No idea I'm afraid, don't follow London areas closely at all.
Do you expect prices in Tillydrone to hold up during the oil price shock Hamish?0 -
Crashy_Time wrote: »Do you expect prices in Tillydrone to hold up during the oil price shock Hamish?
i see house prices holding up until many more are built.0 -
strawberries1 wrote: »Hamish what're your thoughts re east London zones 4-6 prices? I've kept an eye on them in the last 6 weeks and they're doing very strange things!
What have you observed ?Proudly voted remain. A global union of countries is the only way to commit global capital to the rule of law.0
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