The 2014 HAMISH MCTAVISH Predictions Thread

IveSeenTheLight

dryhat wrote: »

Apart from the bit about widespread use of nuclear fusion, it is quite accurate.

Nuclear Fusion generates about 20% of the worlds electricity.
I believe that prediction is still pretty good for having been made 50 years ago.

harpoboy

Another excellent set of predictions from Hamish.

And all largely very positive news too

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Well, 2013 turned out to be a pretty good year, and the 2013 predictions weren't far off the mark.

Results here....

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/4368647

Now on to the 2014 predictions.

Broadly a year of stronger economic recovery.

1. House prices will rise. Indices will range from +6 to +11
Possibly a bit higher than that, particularly in the less desireable parts of London. Large swathes of unfashionable East and South London could see 20%

2. FTB numbers will increase as HTB continues to enable more people to buy, and the wider lending markets continue to recover.
Agree

3. Inflation will remain in a range between 1.5% and 2.5% for most of the year.
Agree

4. Unemployment will fall to around 7%
End the year closer to 6%

5. Interest rates will end the year at or below 1%
No change likely in 2014

6. Mortgage lending for new purchases will increase markedly and average around 70k per month for the year
Agree

7. Rents will continue to increase at a similar rate to 2013 and reach another new record high
Agree

8. The north will see increasing HPI as the gap to London/SE starts to close
Partly agree. Double digit HPI will ripple out beyond London to the South East and South West, but likely to be muted north of Watford Gap.

9. Scotland will vote to remain in the UK, but it will be closer than the polls currently suggest thanks to a misguided blossoming of nationalism around the Commonwealth games
Agree

10. Economic recovery will strengthen with GDP +3.5% for the year
Agree

11. Politics: The Lib Dems will start to distance themselves from the Tories politically, The tories will pander to the right to try and prevent a UKIP resurgence, UKIP will do well at the Euro elections and then their 'protest vote' support will fade rapidly by year end as minds are focused on the real election that matters. As the economy recovers the gap between tories and labour will narrow.
Agree - I still think the Tories could swing the election in 2015

12. Average wages will increase by more than they did this year
Agree - thank goodness for this

13. Private sector wage rises will match CPI by year end
Agree

And as outliers.....

14. London HPI and the wider lending market may become strong enough to warrant removing or tactically reducing HTB2 limits for London/SE, perhaps reducing the upper limit to 300K instead of 600K.
Agree - and probably a good thing too, to reduce the risk of a bubble

15. The Lib Dem/Tory coalition may become so strained by Conservative back bench panic at UKIP's results in the Euro elections that it becomes effectively unworkable before the scheduled end of the full term
Dis-agree - both parties have too much to lose

Feel free to add your own predictions here, and we'll review once again in 12 months.

zagfles

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Nuclear Fusion generates about 20% of the worlds electricity.
I believe that prediction is still pretty good for having been made 50 years ago.

I don't think he was referring to solar power, if that's what you mean! He meant nuclear fusion done here on Earth!

BobQ

It will be a good year ( even decade) to graduate from a university in nuclear engineering.

chewmylegoff

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Nuclear Fusion generates about 20% of the worlds electricity.
I believe that prediction is still pretty good for having been made 50 years ago.

No it doesn't. You are confusing fission with fusion.

vivatifosi

Thanks for starting the new thread, here are my runners and riders for this year:

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Broadly a year of stronger economic recovery. Agreed

1. House prices will rise. Indices will range from +6 to +11

I don't think there's any point in providing an overall forecast because there is no such thing as a homogeneous housing market. House prices will, as I forecast in an earlier thread rise by more than 10% in London; high single digit elsewhere in SE and more desirable areas; reasonable rises elsewhere except for areas where there are persistent and ongoing problems (such as high unemployment) which could see falls.

2. FTB numbers will increase as HTB continues to enable more people to buy, and the wider lending markets continue to recover.

Agree.

3. Inflation will remain in a range between 1.5% and 2.5% for most of the year.

Agree, I think it will be at the higher end of that range though.

4. Unemployment will fall to around 7%

Agree.

5. Interest rates will end the year at or below 1%

Well that's a no-brainer... It's before the election.

6. Mortgage lending for new purchases will increase markedly and average around 70k per month for the year

No idea, not interested.

7. Rents will continue to increase at a similar rate to 2013 and reach another new record high

Broadly agree, the sticking point remains for me the benefits end of the market. Maybe it will become more polarised.

8. The north will see increasing HPI as the gap to London/SE starts to close

See earlier point.

9. Scotland will vote to remain in the UK, but it will be closer than the polls currently suggest thanks to a misguided blossoming of nationalism around the Commonwealth games

Agree, squeaky bum time for politicians both sides.

10. Economic recovery will strengthen with GDP +3.5% for the year

Would love that to be true but think it will be a bit short of that. High twos or low threes.

11. Politics: The Lib Dems will start to distance themselves from the Tories politically, The tories will pander to the right to try and prevent a UKIP resurgence, UKIP will do well at the Euro elections and then their 'protest vote' support will fade rapidly by year end as minds are focused on the real election that matters. As the economy recovers the gap between tories and labour will narrow.

I think this has already started.

12. Average wages will increase by more than they did this year

That's a no-brainer.

13. Private sector wage rises will match CPI by year end

Broadly agree. Sticking point for me is the number of people on NMW and whether that drags the average down. AIUI the NMW will increase at below CPI.

And as outliers.....

14. London HPI and the wider lending market may become strong enough to warrant removing or tactically reducing HTB2 limits for London/SE, perhaps reducing the upper limit to 300K instead of 600K.

15. The Lib Dem/Tory coalition may become so strained by Conservative back bench panic at UKIP's results in the Euro elections that it becomes effectively unworkable before the scheduled end of the full term

Feel free to add your own predictions here, and we'll review once again in 12 months.

And here are my own outliers:

1. Greece will remain in the Euro;).

2. Gold will fall as the world economy stabilises, unless there's a major shock such as a big terrorist attack.

3. I'll be watching Europe's eastern borders and this is nothing to do with immigration. We already know that the Ukraine is split between pro-Europe and pro-Russia camps. Latvia has joined the Euro and sees it as a hedge against Russian influence. Russia will hold the winter Olympics with its problematic Caucuses. I don't know which way this is going but want to get it on the radar as I think the economics and politics of this will be interesting.

4. The IT industry will undergo another year of change as tablets overtake PCs for the first time (I think this may have just happened, but it's more about the impact on the players within the industry that I'm interested in). There will be winners and losers and there will be more small companies out of left field that will be titans that we've all heard of within a few years.

5. The pound will continue to gain against the dollar and will finish the year in the $1.70s. Yes we're a year ahead in the electioneering cycle, but ours won't be as vicious and there isn't the headspace here for such obstinacy.

And this time next year, I may yet be eating my words...

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

vivatifosi wrote: »

1. Greece will remain in the Euro;).

LOL

The Eurozone financial crisis is contained.

There will be occasional bumps in the road, but the real dangers have been averted.

2. Gold will fall

Yep.

The PM crash was notable in 2011/2012, it's old news now.

Decades of PM price decline are next.

Europe's eastern borders

Olympics

Agreed. And I'd say the risks of a notable terrorist incident around the olympics is high.

But I suspect the bigger risk this year is the developing tensions in the East China Sea.

Eastern Europe is more likely to see small scale confrontations, but they're also probably containable.

The China/Japan/Korea/US situation has more potential for rapid and catastrophic escalation IF something goes wrong.

The pound will continue to gain against the dollar and will finish the year in the $1.70s. Yes we're a year ahead in the electioneering cycle, but ours won't be as vicious and there isn't the headspace here for such obstinacy.

Hope so.

zagubov

chewmylegoff wrote: »

No it doesn't. You are confusing fission with fusion.

Is he/she thinking of fossil fuel/ photoelectric/wind/HEP biofuel/ which are all ultimately solar (and therefore fusion-based) in origin?

BobQ wrote: »

It will be a good year ( even decade) to graduate from a university in nuclear engineering.

If you are wrong, we are all stuffed. The environmentalists need to smell the coffee on this, but I don't know if they've got the flexibility

purch

zagubov wrote: »

The environmentalists need to smell the coffee on this

Coffee mixed with cold water doesn't smell so good :eek:

Kennyboy66

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Nuclear Fusion generates about 20% of the worlds electricity.
I believe that prediction is still pretty good for having been made 50 years ago.

It's not remotely 20%.

Its roughly 12%.

http://www.nei.org/Knowledge-Center/Nuclear-Statistics/World-Statistics/World-Nuclear-Generation-and-Capacity