The 2014 HAMISH MCTAVISH Predictions Thread

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Well, 2013 turned out to be a pretty good year, and the 2013 predictions weren't far off the mark.

Results here....

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/4368647

Now on to the 2014 predictions.

Broadly a year of stronger economic recovery.

1. House prices will rise. Indices will range from +6 to +11

2. FTB numbers will increase as HTB continues to enable more people to buy, and the wider lending markets continue to recover.

3. Inflation will remain in a range between 1.5% and 2.5% for most of the year.

4. Unemployment will fall to around 7%

5. Interest rates will end the year at or below 1%

6. Mortgage lending for new purchases will increase markedly and average around 70k per month for the year

7. Rents will continue to increase at a similar rate to 2013 and reach another new record high

8. The north will see increasing HPI as the gap to London/SE starts to close

9. Scotland will vote to remain in the UK, but it will be closer than the polls currently suggest thanks to a misguided blossoming of nationalism around the Commonwealth games

10. Economic recovery will strengthen with GDP +3.5% for the year

11. Politics: The Lib Dems will start to distance themselves from the Tories politically, The tories will pander to the right to try and prevent a UKIP resurgence, UKIP will do well at the Euro elections and then their 'protest vote' support will fade rapidly by year end as minds are focused on the real election that matters. As the economy recovers the gap between tories and labour will narrow.

12. Average wages will increase by more than they did this year

13. Private sector wage rises will match CPI by year end

And as outliers.....

14. London HPI and the wider lending market may become strong enough to warrant removing or tactically reducing HTB2 limits for London/SE, perhaps reducing the upper limit to 300K instead of 600K.

15. The Lib Dem/Tory coalition may become so strained by Conservative back bench panic at UKIP's results in the Euro elections that it becomes effectively unworkable before the scheduled end of the full term

Feel free to add your own predictions here, and we'll review once again in 12 months.

Jason74

A good set of predictions, and while I think that some of the numbers you've predicted are not good news at all (I think potential double digit HPI is not good news at all for society as a whole), it's hard to disagree with many of them. The ones I'm least convinced about are the points you make around wage growth, but hopefully you're right there. It's much needed if the recovery is to be sustained.

I'd only add that I suspect HPI in some of the less unaffordable areas of London may be closer to 20% than 10%, as HTB adds fuel to an already overheated market. Hopefully the govt. / BofE would step in with the kind of changes to HTB you mention in you point 14 before that happens, but I wont hold me breath on that one.

wymondham

Good predictions - I'd go with most of this and change/add:


I do think interest rates will end up being higher
Possible unrest if people believe jobs are being taken away by immigrants
HTB being withdrawn as the market heats further

dryhat

No mention of Bitcoin or other crypto-currencies?

That's really strange considering their phenomenal rise in 2013 and potential for future growth.

... or is it just house prices and meaningless statistics that matter?

chewmylegoff

By 2103 bitcoin might be worth talking about I suppose.

My prediction is that this forum will become predictably worse, Sibley will post every express article about HPI to try to bait one of the three people who cares, that hamish will post some very long analysis with a :beer: smiley at the end that no-one will read and that there will be 1,452 threads about how stupid all the people on the HPC website are.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

chewmylegoff wrote: »

By 2103 bitcoin might be worth talking about I suppose.

My prediction is that this forum will become predictably worse, Sibley will post every express article about HPI to try to bait one of the three people who cares, that hamish will post some very long analysis with a :beer: smiley at the end that no-one will read and that there will be 1,452 threads about how stupid all the people on the HPC website are.

Don't forget the onesies....

:beer:

dryhat

chewmylegoff wrote: »

By 2103 bitcoin might be worth talking about I suppose.

I'm glad you recognise the potential.

Loughton_Monkey

Wouldn't disagree too much, Hamish.

However, I go for HPI to be 11%+ by year end. And CPI will exceed 2.5% by year end. I can't believe the boy Cameron will not somehow 'allow'/encourage wage rises as a feelgood factor for the next election which will feed through to Inflation.

New 'political organisations' will emerge to create great unrest once the weather improves in spring. Demonstrations. Sit-ins. Marches. Camp-outs. Twitter campaigns... all aimed at the usual muddled pinkos, to 'campaign' about cost of living, lack cheap houses, lack of jobs, low wages, low benefits, student loans, and anything else they can think of.

Also, I would endorse the strained politics, and even wouldn't rule out an early election, perhaps 1 month after the Scottish vote. Ed Balls will not be [shadow] chancellor by the end of the year.

BBC Chief Business Correspondent Linda Yeuh will be selected for Strictly Come Dancing but will not win it.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Loughton_Monkey wrote: »

I go for HPI to be 11%+ by year end. And CPI will exceed 2.5% by year end. I can't believe the boy Cameron will not somehow 'allow'/encourage wage rises as a feelgood factor for the next election which will feed through to Inflation.

It'll be interesting to watch, either way.

Loughton_Monkey

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

It'll be interesting to watch, either way.

... if you mean HPI or CPI, then yes. But not Strictly Come Dancing!

purch

I predict a surge in demand for neck braces.