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The 2013 HAMISH_MCTAVISH Predictions Thread
HAMISH_MCTAVISH
Posts: 28,592 Forumite
How time flies....
Another year on and results of the previous thread can be found here..... http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=58297975&postcount=67
2012 saw slightly rising prices, and 2013 should see the trend improve a bit, although nothing too spectacular.
Broadly a year of mild recovery.....
1. House prices will rise. Indices will range from 0 to +5
2. FTB numbers will increase as FLS filters through into an increase in lending.
3. Inflation will remain in a range between 2% and 3.5% for most of the year.
4. Unemployment will fall slightly
5. Interest rates will end the year at or below 1%
6. Mortgage lending for new purchases will increase markedly and average above 60k per month for the year
7. Rents will continue to increase at a similar rate to 2012 and reach another new record high
8. Most of the worst performing areas in the North will bottom out, some will start rising.
9. Northern Ireland house prices will bottom out.
10. Politics: ConDems will quietly reverse course economically as the reality of an election gets closer. There will be more stimulus to get the economy moving.
11. Average wages will increase by more than they did this year.
12. There will not be two consecutive quarters of negative GDP in 2013
And as outliers.....
13. Carney/Osborne will switch BOE policy to NGDP targeting.
14. BASEL 3 requirements will be softened/delayed further
Feel free to add your own predictions here, and we'll review once again in 12 months.
Another year on and results of the previous thread can be found here..... http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=58297975&postcount=67
2012 saw slightly rising prices, and 2013 should see the trend improve a bit, although nothing too spectacular.
Broadly a year of mild recovery.....
1. House prices will rise. Indices will range from 0 to +5
2. FTB numbers will increase as FLS filters through into an increase in lending.
3. Inflation will remain in a range between 2% and 3.5% for most of the year.
4. Unemployment will fall slightly
5. Interest rates will end the year at or below 1%
6. Mortgage lending for new purchases will increase markedly and average above 60k per month for the year
7. Rents will continue to increase at a similar rate to 2012 and reach another new record high
8. Most of the worst performing areas in the North will bottom out, some will start rising.
9. Northern Ireland house prices will bottom out.
10. Politics: ConDems will quietly reverse course economically as the reality of an election gets closer. There will be more stimulus to get the economy moving.
11. Average wages will increase by more than they did this year.
12. There will not be two consecutive quarters of negative GDP in 2013
And as outliers.....
13. Carney/Osborne will switch BOE policy to NGDP targeting.
14. BASEL 3 requirements will be softened/delayed further
Feel free to add your own predictions here, and we'll review once again in 12 months.
“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”
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Comments
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Thanks for starting this thread, Hamish.
1. House prices +4% nominal
2. FTB's flooding the market due to sizeable deposits & FLS
3. GDP +3%
4. Unemployment continues to fall, close to 2M by end 2013
5. BoE base rate rises to 1-1.5% in H2
6. Rents stable or slightly up
7. Eurozone remains intact, including PIIGS
8. Inflation around 2-3%
9. FTSE above 7000
10. Graham to reach 50,000 posts0 -
1. House prices: +4% nominal. The regions will increase by more than London and the South-East.
2. Inflation: At some point inflation will spike. Maybe 2013 is too early so I'd say +3% for the year.
3. Base Rates: Unchanged at the end of 2013.
4. Mortgage lending: will increase and HEW will turn negative by the year end.
5. Average wages up by almost inflation.
6. GDP: +2.0%
Outliers...
7. Osborne replaced
8. Labour leadership challenge0 -
FLS will push up approvals. There's a lot of pent up demand out there so I'm optimistic for house prices.
1. House prices +5% nominal
2. GDP 2%
3. Unemployment falls to 2.25M
4. BoE base rates 1% or less
5. Rents slightly up
6. One country leaves Eurozone
7. Inflation around 2-3%
8. FTSE above 6500
9. Serious rifts in coalition.If I don't reply to your post,
you're probably on my ignore list.0 -
dunno about next year, i expect a big boost to gdp in 2014.0
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1. House prices increase 0-1%
2. BoE base rate to remain at 0.5%
3. Rents stable
4. Inflation around 2-3%
5. FTSE about 6300-6500Chuck Norris can kill two stones with one birdThe only time Chuck Norris was wrong was when he thought he had made a mistakeChuck Norris puts the "laughter" in "manslaughter".I've started running again, after several injuries had forced me to stop0 -
1. House prices more or less the same (+/- 2%) due to ongoing issues with getting a mortgage. A side prediction therefore - no great increase in mortgage lending.
2. Inflation +2.7%
3. Base rate unchanged, but there will be increased chatter of an increase.
4. Average wages will rise at a little less than inflation. I think this because many govt workers and public sector workers will not get a rise and nor will many in finance.
5. GDP up by a shade under 2%.
6. Rents may fall due to change in rules for benefits payment.
7. Unemployment slightly lower.
8. To much amazement and can kicking, Greece will remain in Eurozone.
9. FTSE 6,850
10. Graham c49,000 posts.Please stay safe in the sun and learn the A-E of melanoma: A = asymmetry, B = irregular borders, C= different colours, D= diameter, larger than 6mm, E = evolving, is your mole changing? Most moles are not cancerous, any doubts, please check next time you visit your GP.
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I predict that in a year's time Hamish will revisit this thread and declare his ludicrously vague predictions to be correct once again for the umpteenth year in a row.
I predict that over the next 12 months that house prices will be up 1.253%, inflation (RPI) will run at 2.94%, GDP will be +1.623% and that George Osborne's approval rating will be slightly below Jimmy Savile's.
I also predict that DecentLivingWage will be voted 'Worst MSE poster 2013' by a jury of his peers.0 -
2013 is going to be a year of surprises. Unsure what though.
GDP +1% at best.
The UK will lose it's AAA rating.
Construction will recover.
No more QE.0 -
This coming from the idiot who said there would be no double dip recession:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:0
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