The 2013 HAMISH_MCTAVISH Predictions Thread

Graham_Devon

michaels wrote: »

Graham I agree that debt can not grow more quickly than GDP forever however I would argue strongly that reducing the deficit more quickly will lead to slower earnings growth and as mentioned an even greater hit to the household income of the poorest. Don't forget that deficit expenditure by the govt is just deferred taxation and taxation is extremely progressive and getting more so.

I would argue that we were doing just fine in 2011/12.

House prices were static. People were taking on loans if the banks felt comfortable lending to them. Credit card and personal debts were decreasing.

We really did have a situation for a time whereby people were paying down debts, houses were being saved for again and things looked to be, albeit very slowly, repairining themselves through a combination of people knuckling down and outside pressures. If we'd have kept that up, instead of throwing more money in the form of debt around, we may well have had a better footing, albeit with lower results.

There were casualties, sure. Some chains went to the wall, high street spending was down. Banks were great.

Are things "better" now that debt has reached a new record? People are taking on personal loans and dusting off the credit cards? People are out buying new houses and deferring payment for 5 years, others are out scrambling for a house?

One thing that struck me personally was the return of increasing credit card limits I haven't asked for (happened on 2 cards I use to spend on) and also a leaflet from the halifax offering me a personal loan. Haven't had those since 2006/7.

We appear to have a recovery based on debt....again. Not yet quite where we were, but certainly all the parts seem to be falling into place. Adverts all over the TV for loans. Mortgages. Credit cards battling to outdo one another again. And the high street at the same time reports sales are up.

As I said last year on the start of this thread, it's simply more debt and more spending. But this time with policies still on emergency levels as a response to the falllout of this very thing last time around.

wotsthat

wotsthat wrote: »

1. House prices: +4% nominal. The regions will increase by more than London and the South-East.

2. Inflation: At some point inflation will spike. Maybe 2013 is too early so I'd say +3% for the year.

3. Base Rates: Unchanged at the end of 2013.

4. Mortgage lending: will increase and HEW will turn negative by the year end.

5. Average wages up by almost inflation.

6. GDP: +2.0%

Outliers...

7. Osborne replaced

8. Labour leadership challenge

Not too unhappy with that.

Surprised at London's HPI - I did think we'd see more of a ripple out in 2013.

...and George Osborne and Ed Milliband are jammy gits!

vivatifosi

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vivatifosi wrote: »

1. House prices more or less the same (+/- 2%) due to ongoing issues with getting a mortgage. A side prediction therefore - no great increase in mortgage lending. What do I know?

2. Inflation +2.7% Has been falling back over the year so that’s a big over estimate.

3. Base rate unchanged, but there will be increased chatter of an increase. Correct, but not exactly a difficult prediction to make.

4. Average wages will rise at a little less than inflation. I think this because many govt workers and public sector workers will not get a rise and nor will many in finance.

5. GDP up by a shade under 2%. Not released yet, but looks like it will come in at around 2%.

6. Rents may fall due to change in rules for benefits payment. Well I got that wrong, but I think that there will still be a knock-on effect in areas where this is a big issue.

7. Unemployment slightly lower. Well it is down.

8. To much amazement and can kicking, Greece will remain in Eurozone. Yay, got one right.

9. FTSE 6,850 - a bit under – 6,717.

10. Graham c49,000 posts. I think Graham has been deliberately tight lipped this past year so that we undershoot our predictions

Not too bad, a little conservative though.
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purch

Is there a Nobel Prize for having your head stuck up your own !!!! ?

Anyone know the dialling code for Oslo ?? :eek:

IveSeenTheLight

purch wrote: »

Anyone know the dialling code for Oslo ?? :eek:

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=uk+to+olso+dialling+code

Generali

purch wrote: »

Is there a Nobel Prize for having your head stuck up your own !!!! ?

http://www.improbable.com/ig/

dryhat

Hey Gen, Did you see what Australia voted as its "word of the year 2013"?

harpoboy

brit1234 wrote: »

Prices will fall in 2013, people are in real terms simply getting poorer and the London housing market is starting to falter.

Oh how I am looking forward to your 2014 predictions.

Always good for a laugh

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

mortgage approvals to average above 60k per month for the year.....

.

A bit more info....



I'll take that as a YES too.