The 2013 HAMISH_MCTAVISH Predictions Thread

Mr._Pricklepants

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

Hamish and PrickP have jumped off a 100 storey building hand in hand after being told by Homelessskilledworker that it was not a very good idea. "Oh B****x HSK you killjoy" as they started to plummet "we will be fine".

Passing the 99th floor they yelled "see we are fine", 98, 97, 96, 95................"see HSK, you have been wrong time after time"...... 10,9,8 "You really need to concede HSK, we are still fine"...

Uhm ok, nice analogy, but I haven't got a clue what you're on about.

Look Foxy, let's be honest about it. You want to pick up a house on the cheap and therefore you NEED the economy down the drain, the euro to collapse and massive unemployment (see your posts gloating about moving into Joeskeppi, JonnyBravo and wotsthat's repos).
The thing is, it's just not going to happen. Year after year you get more and more frustrated as you move into middle age with a deposit steadily losing value with inflation and house prices round your way staying were they are at best.

You should stop clinging on until you cannot cling on anymore. It makes you bitter - I've noticed in the tone of your posts.
As a friend I advise you to make that decision and buy. If you have the deposit you claim you have, there are some pretty juicy mortage deals for you out there.
Heck, there are 5 year fixes below 3% now. Bag one of those, overpay up to the limit for 5 years and you're sorted, mate.

IveSeenTheLight

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

who can tell when someone clinging on by their fingernails is going to fall to their death Zzzzzzzz

The social and possibly moral thing to do would be to help said person onto terra firma instead of circling like a vulture waiting to capitalise on taking their watch and shoes

IveSeenTheLight

Mr._Pricklepants wrote: »

Heck, there are 5 year fixes below 3% now. Bag one of those, overpay up to the limit for 5 years and you're sorted, mate.

I would like to point out that people shouldn't be put off by paying the ERP's.
I previously found that teh ERP costs was recouped within 4 months of the interest savings.
This might be slightly higher now with the mortgage rates being lower, but the point may still be that you save in the long run despite the ERP.

The exception would be if you did not have long left for your mortgage to complete.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

This thread seems to attract more crazies every year.....

Or maybe just the same crazies under new usernames, but with 12 months more frustration at stable/rising prices under their belt.

wotsthat

Mr._Pricklepants wrote: »

The thing is, it's just not going to happen. Year after year you get more and more frustrated as you move into middle age with a deposit steadily losing value with inflation and house prices round your way staying were they are at best.

He knows it's going to happen because he's got the best part of of £100k as savings eroding away which makes his predictions so much more credible (ignore the fact that the money was probably inherited rather than accumulated through his own financial acumen).

Mallotum_X

Is this thread just a bunch of mud throwing or is it still for predictions?
Assuming no major world events or big political change.

Average national house prices basically flat +-2%, masking increasingly significant regional/postcode variations.

High end London property continue to attract foreign money.

Inflation 2-3%

Unemployment may start to fall, but with more lower paid/part time jobs.

Wage inflation c2%

Possibly some movement towards the end of the year on base rates, but if not more calls for them to start to move again.

Slight increase in the volume of property transactions.

Average rents flat, but again regional variations. Increases (probably) in London and one or two other hotspots, reductions in many of the more recession hit areas.

Service sector broadly flat, retail sector increasingly goes online with some more high profile failures on the high street, some evidence of new start ups being more viable.

Euro (with Greece still in it) to survive. At least one or more "Greek crisis" periods in the press, when a bit more Greek debt is written off in exchange for posturing from the Greek Government.

Focus on Italy, Spain, Ireland at various times. Spanish Economy in particular remaining pretty poor, high general and higher youth unemployment to continue. (with at least one story from the Mail/Express about some poor Brits that moved to Spain and lost everything).

Falkland Islands continue to be used to divert attention away from Argentine Domestic affairs.

More large scale Bank scandals to hit as the Libor and other issues work their way through the system.

Sibley

I think this year will be the game changer.

Mortgage lending will go crazy with banks fighting for customers again.

Houses will rise sharply up to 18% in good areas IE London and South..

N1AK

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

How time flies....

Another year on and results of the previous thread can be found here..... http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=58297975&postcount=67

Feel free to add your own predictions here, and we'll review once again in 12 months.

Not knocking the predictions you're making but they are painfully mundane. Interest rates will do anything from stay the same to double. Your definition of house price rises is based on your own inflation target from -2.5% fall to +2.5% increase in real terms. Your 'reverse course' definition is wide enough to drive a fleet of trucks through, any new government policy which involves spending could be fudged to support it. Most of these predictions would be more shocking if they DIDN'T happen.

For my own part:
> Interest rates will remain unchanged and won't reach 1% in 2013.
> Landregistry prices Dec 2012-Dec 2013 will increase by 1.0-3.0%
> US, UK, Asian and Latin American stock markets will all end the year higher than they start.
> Longshot: Europe will not see a relapse of the economic issues of the last few years; the Eurozone issues are over for this economic cycle.

homelessskilledworker

What I find Hillarious about the predictions on this board and the armchair analysis that goes with them, with the analysis blinkered usually to support the posters worthless prediction(bear and bull).

There is only ONE prediction that is relevant to the housing debate on MSE(war some would say), and that is the question of when the monumental problem of the UK's national debt is resolved or even dealt with.
When the question of will property prices fall/collapse this year, the question is will it be the year our debt problems are finally addressed.

What is happening now, no matter what certain groups claim is that the housing market is broadly flat after an intial modest fall post 2007.

The situation this Government is in(and any other) if you want to scale it down is like an average man on the street on a low wage of say £20k who has all his every day commitments to deal with and also has £200,000 on his credit cards. The banks have cut him a deal and he is only paying the interest until he gets back on his feet or his fortunes improve.
But this Guy is still living in his house which went up 1% last year(cough) so all is ok!!.. Mmmmmmm.

Since the banks were hours from closing in some cases due to the financial crisis we have since seen a new Government form that is perceived to be more ruthless and tough, in reality though this Government is not even scratching the surface, the actual national debt is 100 Billions more than when the muppet Gordon Brown was in power, it's getting bigger. There is not a country on the planet except Japan and Ireland that are worse.

So come the end of this year, this problem might be addressed or it could just easily be left for just one more year AGAIN, and you bear and bull posters can debate over the 2% or 3% the property market fell or climbed.

There is a D Day coming planned or otherwise, and it will have to be dealt with, and short of a period of 10% growth for a couple of decades nothing is going to prevent the pain that goes with it.

wotsthat

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

There is a D Day coming planned or otherwise, and it will have to be dealt with, and short of a period of 10% growth for a couple of decades nothing is going to prevent the pain that goes with it.

More hyperbole.

GDP growth of 10% per year for 20 years is the minimum we need to prevent 'D-Day'? Have you considered that - we'd have the world's second biggest economy.