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The 2013 HAMISH_MCTAVISH Predictions Thread
Comments
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homelessskilledworker wrote: »We will go into the £150k's territory, which still will be no great worry to many property Bulls, and it will seem not much different from now(the boiling frog effect).
Quite possibly, your only talking a drop of £1,491 on average to achieve this bold prediction.homelessskilledworker wrote: »But once we start testing the low £150k level and go into the £140K level, then thats when things will get nasty/good.
My gut feeling is that we will cross the £170k threshold as opposed to crossing into the £140's.
I think we've stagnated for the last 3 years without going down to that level and can't see it happening.
To clarify, I also don't think we will be crossing into the £170k's this year either.:wall:
What we've got here is....... failure to communicate.
Some men you just can't reach.
:wall:0 -
and they did.
Nope.
Land registry (your favourite index) has them up around 1%.
Halifax is flat, nationwide down 1%, and ONS and Acadametrics both up more than land registry.
The average of all the indices is up. The index you claim is the most accurate is up.
They rose in 2012 “The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
No Gold/Silver price predictions Hamish ?
You did make predictions on them last year.
And have you reviewed your predictions for 2012 yet ?HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Well folks it's that time of year again....
Results from 2011 thread here: http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=49667901&postcount=65
So now onto the issues.
House Prices: Last year I predicted flat with a slight bias towards falling prices, this year I'm predicting flat with a slight bias towards rising prices. So a range of -2% to +3% for the national indices.
Rent prices: Will continue to rise after the winter dip, albeit more slowly than in 2011.
Economy: No double dip recession, weak growth to continue.
Base rates: Will end the year at or below 1%.
Inflation: Will fall back towards target this year, perhaps slightly below, although this may be averted with more QE.
QE: Mostly depends on the Euro crisis and it's effect on bank lending, although we could also see it if inflation looks likely to fall well below target. I'd say a 50/50 chance we'll see another round in 2012.
Unemployment: Will peak around 2.8 million either in 2012 or early 2013 (slightly up on my previous estimate of 2.75).
Eurozone: Will stay intact.
Politics: The focus will increasingly be on growth and talking up the recovery with the clock ticking towards the next election. Osborne will claim not to have strayed from "Plan A", but will be forced to make further significant changes in order to ensure growth.
Gold and Silver: Both crashed in 2011. Gold may approach it's previous highs at some point but not meaningfully higher, Silver won't even come close, it's well and truly peaked.
The overall picture.... More of the same. Another relatively boring year, which at this point is probably a good thing.30 Year Challenge : To be 30 years older. Equity : Don't know, don't care much. Savings : That's asking for ridicule.0 -
IveSeenTheLight wrote: »Quite possibly, your only talking a drop of £1,491 on average to achieve this bold prediction.
My gut feeling is that we will cross the £170k threshold as opposed to crossing into the £140's.
I think we've stagnated for the last 3 years without going down to that level and can't see it happening.
To clarify, I also don't think we will be crossing into the £170k's this year either.
Oh Dear!!
I am not going to go into this into too much detail, I said we would go into the £150k's AND THEN..... blah blah, I even said in my post that particular event was no big deal(words to that effect), it's what it continued into later.
I personally see the £150k's as a boiling frog level/barrier, it is when we go into the £140k's is when the ugly stuff really starts to happen, sentiment, expectations, capitulation, and thats when this board becomes a Bears playground(not by me).
But if the market starts going the way you say(£170k), then I think it best that the property bears just pack their bags and call it a day, and to be honest it is not a scenario I cannot rule out(no open minded person should, except here!), BUT it would mean a much more negative effect within the economy substituted for this.0 -
No Gold/Silver price predictions Hamish ?
You did make predictions on them last year.
And have you reviewed your predictions for 2012 yet ?
Gold and silver no longer newsworthy, the bubble popped, they crashed, last years and the year before's predictions were correct.
Review of 2012 predictions linked to from the first post in this thread.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
What's a boiling frog level?0
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HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Gold and silver no longer newsworthy, the bubble popped, they crashed, last years and the year before's predictions were correct.
Review of 2012 predictions linked to from the first post in this thread.
Did they crash Hamish ?
If so, when ?
And how did they do in 2012 ?30 Year Challenge : To be 30 years older. Equity : Don't know, don't care much. Savings : That's asking for ridicule.0 -
This is a system account and does not represent a real person. To contact the Forum Team email forumteam@moneysavingexpert.com0
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Did they crash Hamish ?
If so, when ?
And how did they do in 2012 ?
Why the trolling?
You know full well they crashed in 2011, silver by 40% and gold by over 20%.
The prediction for last year held true as well, gold did head higher but not past it's previous peak, and silver got nowhere near.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »Why the trolling?
You know full well they crashed in 2011, silver by 40% and gold by over 20%.
The prediction for last year held true as well, gold did head higher but not past it's previous peak, and silver got nowhere near.
No trolling Hamish, I just noticed that you left out Gold/Silver predictions.30 Year Challenge : To be 30 years older. Equity : Don't know, don't care much. Savings : That's asking for ridicule.0
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