The 2013 HAMISH_MCTAVISH Predictions Thread

Mr._Pricklepants

Linda_D wrote: »

This coming from the idiot who said there would be no double dip recession:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

padington wrote: »

Jesus is Hamish David Cameron... it all makes sense now. :rotfl:

brarus20 wrote: »

Corrected for you.

Any predictions from you people, or you just here to snipe and troll?

homelessskilledworker

1. No Idea
2. No idea
3. No idea
4. No............................................


As so on and so on.

Hamish, I will bet my bottom Dollar that you put zero research or analysis into anyone one of your silly little questions, if so please explain how you reached your conclusions.

You answers are basically "What would a Bull say" or "want to hear"

My own personal view on what will happen to the housing market, although that is not my biggest interest when it comes to the economy or the markets is(sorry this is the only way on this board that I can explain it).....


Mr Housing Market has been bound and gagged, but still lives because his captors feed him daily. He sits there in his cell with nothing to do and unable to go anywhere.
His Captors though have placed a 10 ton weight just above his head which is held in place by rope with a breaking strain of 10 Ton, 1LB.

Now that is fine as long as everything is calm and peacefull and there is no shocks. We might go one month or five years without anything happening, but that is just not the way the UK works or ever will.

If I must give a prediction in your silly little game, and I hate playing these us against them debacles, I would say trouble/problems are heading our way sooner rather than later, but of course I would say that.

Mr._Pricklepants

Come on Foxy, it's just a light hearted prediction thread.
I know you look a bit like a pillock now with your -10% nominal prediction in last year's thread, but don't let it get to you.

In a way, I respect you and your outlandish predictions much more than the other trolls above who just stand by the side, jeering and mocking the ones who dare to take a punt.

wotsthat

Graham_Devon wrote: »

My predictions is that we will all continue having no idea.

...but if you look at last years thread it looks as if, overall, a bunch of randoms on the internet did have an idea. In the context of the threads about the ability of economists to forecast it was quite impressive.

You're right about most people making vaguely similar forecasts to last year - that's because that's how a mature stable economy functions. You're more likely to be right if you base life plans on things being up or down a bit and getting on with it.

If you truly do have no idea how do you make financial decisions?

wotsthat

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

If I must give a prediction in your silly little game, and I hate playing these us against them debacles, I would say trouble/problems are heading our way sooner rather than later, but of course I would say that.

It's just a bit of fun and you are not being forced to make any predictions but, as a more vocal member of the MSE community, I thought you would welcome the opportunity to 'put yourself out there'.

Can you expand on what troubles or problems are coming our way in the short term? It sounds like a catch-all for any bad news which we all know there will be plenty of in 2013.

Graham_Devon

wotsthat wrote: »

...but if you look at last years thread it looks as if, overall, a bunch of randoms on the internet did have an idea. In the context of the threads about the ability of economists to forecast it was quite impressive.

You're right about most people making vaguely similar forecasts to last year - that's because that's how a mature stable economy functions. You're more likely to be right if you base life plans on things being up or down a bit and getting on with it.

If you truly do have no idea how do you make financial decisions?

I agree. And I could too make some conservative predictions. But at the end of the day, I'd just be guessing.

What i'm saying now is that things are in such a mess, all were really doing is predicting things will carry on being in a mess. That's the only way anything in the OPs, or anyone elses predictions will actually happen.

Anything can now topple the whole system. I regard is much like the credit crunch that we didn't really know was about to happen. Everything is now in place for a major problem to hit. It could be years off. It could be months off. That's what I'm saying, I don't know.

I'm not saying that major problem WILL definately hit, and I can't say when, or what it will be. What I am saying is that the problems we have in 2007 are now miniscule compared to what we are storing up and actively adding to today. Everyones just bailing everyone else out.

This could go on for years, and I think the only thing that will eventually topple it is voters. Maybe German, maybe American. Maybe even the Greek public.

I can't really decide whether a country will take a stand against it's own debt and stop actively adding to it, or whether people power by those getting poorer and poorer (and I don't mean poverty poor, just people seeing living standards decline).

Purely anecdotal, but people I know are starting to take note of petrol prices, and starting to lose out in terms of their lifestyle. People who have always spent summer months in a campervan, are now looking to sell it. Nothing has changed in their lives, they are retired....it's just their costs are continually increasing. The removal of their holiday, or reduction of holiday standards, something they love, has been "taken away". Only NOW are they starting to talk about how things are getting bad. Before now, they couldn't have cared less. Extrpolate this across the country and more and more people are finding themselves in the same position. Life is no longer about progressing, it's going backwards, and more and more are noticing as each year passes. For example, the Nationwide figures out today show mortgage costs as a percentage of income increasing, even though house prices are decreasing. People are losing income, and it's a growing phenomenom.

Many on this forum no doubt will not recognise this, afterall, many appear to be very wealthy. I sincerely hope you never do. However, many others are seeing life going backward...and no, you can't just "get a promotion" as is always the answer.

Generali

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

How time flies....

Another year on and results of the previous thread can be found here..... http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.php?p=58297975&postcount=67

2012 saw slightly rising prices, and 2013 should see the trend improve a bit, although nothing too spectacular.

Broadly a year of mild recovery.....

1. House prices will rise. Indices will range from 0 to +5

2. FTB numbers will increase as FLS filters through into an increase in lending.

3. Inflation will remain in a range between 2% and 3.5% for most of the year.

4. Unemployment will fall slightly

5. Interest rates will end the year at or below 1%

6. Mortgage lending for new purchases will increase markedly and average above 60k per month for the year

7. Rents will continue to increase at a similar rate to 2012 and reach another new record high

8. Most of the worst performing areas in the North will bottom out, some will start rising.

9. Northern Ireland house prices will bottom out.

10. Politics: ConDems will quietly reverse course economically as the reality of an election gets closer. There will be more stimulus to get the economy moving.

11. Average wages will increase by more than they did this year.

12. There will not be two consecutive quarters of negative GDP in 2013

And as outliers.....

13. Carney/Osborne will switch BOE policy to NGDP targeting.

14. BASEL 3 requirements will be softened/delayed further

Feel free to add your own predictions here, and we'll review once again in 12 months.

Using Hamish's list:
1. House prices again broadly flat to down slightly in real terms.
2. Agree. Increasing sales volumes. Perhaps 1,200,000 sales in 2013 on the CML figure. (Increasing sales pretty much has to come from FTBs).
3. Dec 2013 = CPI 4%
4. Unemployment about 2,000,000
5. Base rates below 1%
6. See 2.
7. Rents up by CPI+2 or 3%
8. Northern hell-holes etc flat at best. Big falls in some areas.
9. Northern Ireland see 8.
10. Continuing big falls in the deficit. Cosmetic changes to deficit reduction at best. Maintain course to Plan A.
11. Average wages flat - up in real terms
12. Agree (weather, Queen dying, Euro ending notwithstanding)
13. Not a chance
14. Basle III will be under active renegotiation after the US refuses to implement it

I'm not going to nominate any outliers this year as I am undecided which way things will go. The most likely outcome is a gentle upturn but a possibility is a vicious downturn or even an out of control boom (there has been a lot of stimulus and I don't know about the rest of you but when I am vigorously stimulated there is often a boom of sorts).

I think 2013 will be a largely positive year for the UK economically. The US seems to be very firmly in recovery mode if you forget the politics and look at the data. The UK's economy is often dragged along by that of the US.

homelessskilledworker

wotsthat wrote: »

It's just a bit of fun and you are not being forced to make any predictions but, as a more vocal member of the MSE community, I thought you would welcome the opportunity to 'put yourself out there'.

Can you expand on what troubles or problems are coming our way in the short term? It sounds like a catch-all for any bad news which we all know there will be plenty of in 2013.

There are a number of big concerns facing the UK economy, but above everything else(but in many ways connected to everything) DEBT

DEBT DEBT DEBT....

I am not trying to be facetious, but it really is that simple.
If I have to make some predictions this year.

1. We will lose our AAA rating
2. Rising inflation is a huge risk
3. Millions are wanting to sell, but cannot, and it is becoming more desperate for some.
4. Transactions will remain low if they don't get worse
5. Social anger(will dictate certain events more as time goes on)

Not much else really.

Europe is still is a massive concern, as is the USA, actually the USA is similar example to what some on here consider a rebound/flatlining. Some will say for example that the USA fiscal cliff was solved on the 2nd January.

Like I said, predicting month on month stuff is a nonsence, if it is just a game , Well have fun!!
I see the UK as stewing since 2007, none of the problems have been solved, and many actions have been taken to delay an explosion(like the USA fiscal cliff).

And usually when you take actions there is never not reactions, and these usually manifest themselves in ways you never expect.

If you want a prediction from me about property prices, OK, this is the best I can do and I have posted this half a dozen times now.

We will go into the £150k's territory, which still will be no great worry to many property Bulls, and it will seem not much different from now(the boiling frog effect).
But once we start testing the low £150k level and go into the £140K level, then thats when things will get nasty/good.

Will it happen this year(start to happen), probably, but the housing market is a tanker, it does not often turn on a sixpence so who knows.

Rinoa

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

There are a number of big concerns facing the UK economy, but above everything else(but in many ways connected to everything) DEBT

DEBT DEBT DEBT....

I am not trying to be facetious, but it really is that simple.
If I have to make some predictions this year.

1. We will lose our AAA rating
2. Rising inflation is a huge risk
3. Millions are wanting to sell, but cannot, and it is becoming more desperate for some.
4. Transactions will remain low if they don't get worse
5. Social anger(will dictate certain events more as time goes on)

Not much else really.

Europe is still is a massive concern, as is the USA, actually the USA is similar example to what some on here consider a rebound/flatlining. Some will say for example that the USA fiscal cliff was solved on the 2nd January.

Like I said, predicting month on month stuff is a nonsence, if it is just a game , Well have fun!!
I see the UK as stewing since 2007, none of the problems have been solved, and many actions have been taken to delay an explosion(like the USA fiscal cliff).

And usually when you take actions there is never not reactions, and these usually manifest themselves in ways you never expect.

If you want a prediction from me about property prices, OK, this is the best I can do and I have posted this half a dozen times now.

We will go into the £150k's territory, which still will be no great worry to many property Bulls, and it will seem not much different from now(the boiling frog effect).
But once we start testing the low £150k level and go into the £140K level, then thats when things will get nasty/good.

Will it happen this year(start to happen), probably, but the housing market is a tanker, it does not often turn on a sixpence so who knows.

Bottled it.

Mr._Pricklepants

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

We will go into the £150k's territory, which still will be no great worry to many property Bulls, and it will seem not much different from now(the boiling frog effect).
But once we start testing the low £150k level and go into the £140K level, then thats when things will get nasty/good.

Is this based on LR figures, Foxy?
Thanks.