The 2013 HAMISH_MCTAVISH Predictions Thread

homelessskilledworker

wotsthat wrote: »

More hyperbole.

GDP growth of 10% per year for 20 years is the minimum we need to prevent 'D-Day'? Have you considered that - we'd have the world's second biggest economy.

Ok...

Give us your figures then?

I am not being precise and my projection is pretty much back of a fag packet one minute calculation stuff.
But with the debt we have now and the debt we are commited to(ie pensions), which is probably in the are of 1000% GDP, you tell us the figures for example of growth needed to balance the books.

or

As I suspect going to just get another wotsthat "Because it just won't will it"... "The Government won't allowit will they"... "because your just wrong ain't you"..

Tell us why Wotsthat??

Tell us a little about our Bonds and Gilt market, is it sustainable or a bubble?
The interest we already pay on out National debt, is it sustainable?
Will the markets take fright and will we lose our AAA rating(or worse)

wotsthat

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

Ok...

Give us your figures then?

I am not being precise and my projection is pretty much back of a fag packet one minute calculation stuff.
But with the debt we have now and the debt we are commited to(ie pensions), which is probably in the are of 1000% GDP, you tell us the figures for example of growth needed to balance the books.

Come on Foxy - you haven't even done a back of a fag packet calculation - you're just making yourself look silly.

Debt at 1000% of GDP - you're saying that debt is 1000% x £1.5 trillion?

Current GDP = £1.5tn/ Current debt = £1tn Debt to GDP ratio c65%

No wonder you're worried - yes there are debt issues but they are light years away from Foxyworld.

homelessskilledworker

wotsthat wrote: »

Come on Foxy - you haven't even done a back of a fag packet calculation - you're just making yourself look silly.

Debt at 1000% of GDP - you're saying that debt is 1000% x £1.5 trillion?

Current GDP = £1.5tn/ Current debt = £1tn Debt to GDP ratio c65%

No wonder you're worried - yes there are debt issues but they are light years away from Foxyworld.

Come back to me when you have at least done a 15 minute google or at least done a little homework, rather than just make wotsthat statements.

Yes our Government debt is somewhere around the £1.5 trillion mark, and personal debt is somewhere around the same figure. No go away little wotsthat and do your homework, projected spending and commitments, look at the bonds and gilt markets(still not heard much about them from you, do you not understand what they are?)... In reality our debts and commitments( pensions for example) are much higher than the £1.5 Billion.

What you need probably need(and want) wotsthat with your high debts is loads of inflation, something that will stuff savers and screw the UK right up, but something I sadly do not rule out.


p.s Here is a little clip from Tory MP Steve Baker wotsthat that will give you a near idential opinion to the one I believe, hopefully it won't be too difficult (apologys if it is) for you to understand what he is talking about
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AljEp0XDRvc

wotsthat

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

Come back to me when you have at least done a 15 minute google or at least done a little homework, rather than just make wotsthat statements.

Yes our Government debt is somewhere around the £1.5 trillion mark, and personal debt is somewhere around the same figure. No go away little wotsthat and do your homework, projected spending and commitments, look at the bonds and gilt markets(still not heard much about them from you, do you not understand what they are?)... In reality our debts and commitments( pensions for example) are much higher than the £1.5 Billion.

What you need probably need(and want) wotsthat with your high debts is loads of inflation, something that will stuff savers and screw the UK right up, but something I sadly do not rule out.

I see what you've got wrong. When we hear about projected GDP to debt ratios that's a forecast based on anticipated future debt and anticipated future GDP. You don't add all of today's outgoings to all future outgoings and compare to today's GDP - is that how you got to 1000% debt to GDP ratio?

If I have a debt of £100 it doesn't become a debt of £200 because I've made a commitment to pay it off at the rate of £20/ year for 5 years i.e. debt plus future liabilities.

Not sure why I need to be doing lots of homework - it's YOU making assertions that have fallen at the first hurdle because your basic assumptions are wrong.

You seem to be unhappy with me demonstrating that you're talking nonsense - why not roll out your back of fag packet calculations and put me right.

Conrad

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

There is a D Day coming planned or otherwise, and it will have to be dealt with, and short of a period of 10% growth for a couple of decades nothing is going to prevent the pain that goes with it.

You can find this sentiment in ever newspaper, printed in every year for the last 100 years. There's always an abyss around the corner and it's always 'different this time'.

You are 99% likely to be wrong.

There is no D Day comming. Banks are piling on capital, Governments such as ours have perfectly managable plan, people are making money, all will be well.

Conrad

homelessskilledworker wrote: »

In reality our debts and commitments( pensions for example) are much higher than the £1.5 Billion.

Yes and as a nation we have something like 3 times the debt figure in assets.
Exports to the developing world are growing, interest rates are super low (makes a big difference when comparing historical trends), jobs are being created, the economy is being rebalanced.

Your analysis is completely wrong. We are entering a new prosperity era. See the deeper picture.

homelessskilledworker

Conrad wrote: »

You can find this sentiment in ever newspaper, printed in every year for the last 100 years. There's always an abyss around the corner and it's always 'different this time'.

You are 99% likely to be wrong.

There is no D Day comming. Banks are piling on capital, Governments such as ours have perfectly managable plan, people are making money, all will be well.

The first world war
The Great Depression
The second world war
A country fit for heroes(post WW2)
Trade Union control(60's 70's)
IMF bailout
Three day week
Winter of discontent
80's recessions

Just a few....


Of course the world will keep turning and we will just get on with it.

Mr._Pricklepants

Conrad wrote: »

Yes and as a nation we have something like 3 times the debt figure in assets.

More.

A 15 minute google - as recommended by Foxy - shows 5.5 trillion in savings and 5.8 trillion in property wealth.
(I realise the latter will be worth £146.92 next week in Foxy world)

coastline

Just need a bit of normal growth and 5 years or so the budget deficit will be balanced..
The big problem is growth as in the past it saved the day...but we've got a world problem..
No government has really tried to cut the national debt...just balance the books as the link shows..
Only 6 times in 40 years has there been a reduction in the debt so theres no evidence to suggest they will attempt it this time.

http://www.flickr.com/photos/hmtreasury/5260056945/

The national debt just keeps on growing...take off the last few years and its a similar trend...

[IMG]http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/ukgs_line.php?title=Public Net Debt&year=1970_2011&sname=&units=b&bar=0&stack=1&size=m&spending0=33.08_33.44_35.84_36.88_40.46_46.40_56.59_67.17_79.18_86.88_98.20_113.80_125.20_132.50_143.80_157.20_162.70_167.80_167.40_153.90_152.20_151.30_166.10_202.60_249.80_290.00_322.10_348.00_352.90_351.60_345.40_312.40_315.50_347.10_382.80_424.00_463.00_500.00_525.00_616.90_759.50_905.30&legend=&source=a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a[/IMG]

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

coastline wrote: »

The national debt just keeps on growing...take off the last few years and its a similar trend...

[IMG]http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/ukgs_line.php?title=Public Net Debt&year=1970_2011&sname=&units=b&bar=0&stack=1&size=m&spending0=33.08_33.44_35.84_36.88_40.46_46.40_56.59_67.17_79.18_86.88_98.20_113.80_125.20_132.50_143.80_157.20_162.70_167.80_167.40_153.90_152.20_151.30_166.10_202.60_249.80_290.00_322.10_348.00_352.90_351.60_345.40_312.40_315.50_347.10_382.80_424.00_463.00_500.00_525.00_616.90_759.50_905.30&legend=&source=a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a_a[/IMG]

Oh please......

The national debt is tiny compared to how it's been for most of the last century.